2010 Nationals: Change We Can Believe In?

Last November, a little more than half of all Americans believed that Barack Obama was the answer to the problems plaguing America. The only way to succeed, they thought, was Obama’s sweeping agenda.

The rest of the country, however, saw the nation’s foundation as generally solid, and all it would take to regain America’s greatness was some general refinement in the way we ran our government.

At this point, no one is exactly sure how that road to prosperity should look. Would John McCain’s idea of a simple repavement, or Barak Obama’s vision of an entirely new road, be the right choice?

Time will tell.

The same type of quandary applies to the Washington Nationals.

Is the team so bad that it needs to be blown up and reconstructed using a new version of “The Plan,” or will a little seasoning, spiced with some fortuitous free agent signings, be the way to go?

At their current pace, the Nationals will finish the season at 55-107, a much better team than last year but with a worse record.

And that’s pretty hard to do.

If that kind of record, especially two years running, isn’t justification for the baseball version of the nuclear option, nothing is.

That said, if they were to get blown up, who would have to go? With the exception of second base and—perhaps—right field, the Nationals field a very professional, very acceptable lineup.

Many teams would love to have catcher Jesus Flores, first baseman Adam Dunn, third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, left fielder Josh Willingham and center fielder Nyjer Morgan in their lineups, and could certainly live with shortstop Cristian Guzman and right fielder Elijah Dukes as complimentary players.

Injuries have again taken their toll, but a little health, and a little luck, should return a fairly potent offense in 2010.

And the bullpen, by far the worst I’ve ever seen in my lifetime, has been skillfully transformed into an acceptable group by General Manager Mike Rizzo.

Three of the regular relievers, Mike MacDougal, Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard, all have ERA’s in the 3.00 range and Ron Villone’s ERA is in the low 4.00’s. Only two relievers, Jason Bergman and Saul Rivera, are pitching poorly at this point in the season.

MacDougal has done a yeoman’s job as closer, but with the up-and-coming Drew Storen just months away from the major leagues, MacDougal will become a solid setup man for Washington.

So, if the Nationals were to sign two quality relievers over the winter, the team should feel comfortable that the bullpen will be sound in 2010.

The pivot point, then, for the Nationals going from worst to respectable lies in their starting pitching.

As of this moment, the only certainty in the 2010 rotation will be lefty John Lannan, who’s 9-12, 4.07 2009 season looks a lot like last year’s 9-15, 3.92 effort. Though he is the team’s ace, he’s not an ace; Lannan is a solid number-three starter, and seems to be about as good as he’ll ever be.

Other than him, it’s a crapshoot for next year.

Top prospect Jordan Zimmermann will be back at the end of next season at the earliest. Craig Stammen’s surgery was less invasive but his 4-7, 5.11 record this year might not be good enough allow him the chance to compete for a rotation spot in 2010.

That said, Stammen might be perfect for the Nationals’ bullpen next year. Stammen is deadly the first two times through the lineup before getting rocked and knocked out by the 6^th inning. He would be an ideal middle-relief guy, pitching a couple of innings here and there.

A big question will be what the Nationals will do with Scott Olson, whose shoulder injury caused him to have by far his worst year of his career, and then had that bad year cut short by season ending surgery.

He could come back and win a dozen games in 2010, something he’s done before in his career, or the Nationals might cut ties with him as they did Chad Cordero two seasons ago.

J. D. Martin, the player Cleveland chose in the amateur draft as their compensation pick for the loss of Manny Ramirez, has done well in his first stint in the major leagues.

Martin, 26, is now 5-4, 4.21 in 12 starts, and he’s actually getting better as he gains experience. In his last five starts, Martin has allowed just 11 runs for a nifty 3.41 ERA.

Also ran’s for the rotation include Garrett Mock (3-9, 5.83) and Ross Detwiler (0-6, 5.80).

Perhaps the Nationals’ best hope for reaching respectability in 2010 will hinge on the resigning of Livan Hernandez.

Hernandez, who has won 155 games in his career, has already expressed a desire to sign with the Nationals, and can be counted on to win 12 games from the back of the rotation.

I think that the triumvirate of Lannan, Hernandez and Martin could easily win 34 games, and with the typical major league bullpen winning roughly 20 games in a season, so if the three other, as yet unnamed starters could win a combined 27 games, the Nationals would be a .500 team in 2010.

Of course, nothing every goes according to plan, and this mythical leap to 81 wins will be difficult.

That said, if the Nationals pick up a professional second baseman, someone like Orlando Hudson, and if the Nationals pick up one profession starting pitcher, someone like Jason Marquis, and if the Nationals pick up one more quality relief pitcher, the Nationals should improve in 2010.

The question will be, of course, is how committed the team will be to a quick-fix in 2010. They certainly will have the money. With more than $23 million in contracts coming off the books at the end of this year, the Nationals can sign the aforementioned second baseman and starting pitcher and not raise their payroll a penny.

For the sake of the baseball’s future in Washington, the Nationals have to be, have to be, a competitive team in 2010. Stan Kasten knows it, and so does the Lerner family.

My guess is that for the first time since buying the team, the front office will have a no-holds-barred mentality when the free agent and trade markets open this winter.

It’s time to step up to the plate, and I think the Nationals won’t let us down.

At least, for their own sake, they had better not.