Buying or Selling Every Top 10 Team as a CFP Championship Contender
The college football stock market for national championship contenders is nearing the closing bell, as we have three weeks left before this season's final four is announced.
The College Football Playoff committee might have gone chalk with most of its Top 10 heading into Week 12, but a lot has changed in the last few weeks for a number of contenders.
Last month, I took stock of each Top 10 team in the Associated Press poll. A few weeks later, I'm back to re-evaluate each contender's championship chances—and this time, I can use the rankings the key decision-makers will use whenever they lock in the second-ever playoff field next month.
Each team in the Top 10 still has a realistic shot at making the playoff and winning the national championship. But in order to divide up their chances based on remaining schedule, potential matchups and overall strength, I've handed out stock grades of Strong Sell, Moderate Sell, Reluctant Sell, Reluctant Buy, Moderate Buy and Strong Buy.
Everyone has his opinion on how to play the market, so feel free to tell me whom you're buying and selling in the comments below.
10. Baylor
1 of 10
I wrote last month that it was hard to go all-in on Baylor's title chances until I saw what the Bears could do with Jarrett Stidham in place of the injured Seth Russell at quarterback.
After Stidham's first two starts—a closer-than-expected win at Kansas State and a 10-point home loss to Oklahoma—it's much easier for me to sell the Bears as contenders. They're not completely out of it yet, of course, but the offense has dipped below its usual breakneck pace since Russell's injury, and the defense just put together two of its worst games of the season in terms of yards per play.
The timing of Russell's injury couldn't have been any worse for Baylor, which already knew it was facing a heavily backloaded schedule that received virtually zero help in the first two months of the season. Now Baylor has to beat both undefeated Oklahoma State and one-loss TCU on the road in order to have a shot at a championship. (And that weak schedule won't help matters, either, if Baylor's in the mix with other one-loss teams.)
Anything is possible, especially in a Big 12 conference that looks capable of devouring its own playoff chances, but I don't see Baylor winning out with the way it's been playing without Russell.
Verdict: Strong Sell
9. Michigan State
2 of 10
Michigan State has battled through several injuries and underwhelming starts to maintain a one-loss record heading into the final stretch of the regular season. Now the Spartans face an all-important game against Ohio State away from home.
If Michigan State wins in the Horseshoe, it will have road wins over its two biggest rivals and biggest threats in the Big Ten East. An additional win over Penn State would put the Spartans in the conference championship game and in range of a playoff bid, even with their disappointing loss to Nebraska.
But it's still hard to put a lot of faith in Michigan State, which is a double-digit underdog this weekend against Ohio State, according to Odds Shark. The defense hasn't been consistent against quality opposition this season, and star quarterback Connor Cook will be coming off a shoulder injury that knocked him out of the Maryland game last weekend.
We've already seen a surprising late-game result or two from Sparty this season, but Ohio State might not let it get in that position this time around. I'm banking on a two-loss Michigan State team heading into the postseason. Ohio State on the road looks too tough for the Spartans and their championship hopes.
Verdict: Moderate Sell
8. Florida
3 of 10
Few, if any, expected Florida to be in this position under first-year head coach Jim McElwain. But the Gators are hitting the final two games of their regular season with an outside shot at the College Football Playoff.
Florida Atlantic should make for an easy win this weekend, and having home-field advantage against Florida State will be important. The Seminoles' up-and-down offense would be an intriguing opponent for a red-hot Gators defense, which has only allowed a combined 699 yards and 24 points in three straight victories.
But if the Gators get by Florida State at home, they'll have to knock off an Alabama team with all the momentum in the world. Florida's own offense is No. 48 in Football Outsiders' S&P+ ratings and doesn't inspire a ton of confidence at the moment with quarterback Treon Harris. Alabama's dominant defense is No. 1 in S&P+ across the board. That's far from an encouraging matchup.
Florida is undoubtedly a good football team and has exceeded almost everyone's biggest expectations for year one of the McElwain era. However, this team doesn't look built to survive both Florida State and Alabama in back-to-back weeks—not yet.
Verdict: Strong Sell
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7. Oklahoma
4 of 10
Since the stunning loss to Texas in the Red River Rivalry game earlier this year, Oklahoma has been rolling. The Sooners have balance, explosion and star power on offense with quarterback Baker Mayfield and a loaded cast of playmakers. They also have experience and momentum on defense, especially after holding Baylor to its lowest yardage total of the season.
And as Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer wrote last Saturday night, Oklahoma is also in a perfect position to close out the season stronger than anyone else in the country.
"[Oklahoma] controls its own Big 12 destiny," Kramer wrote. "Wins over reeling TCU and resilient Oklahoma State to close out the year would earn Oklahoma the conference title. Neither of these games is a given. But the opportunity—two more chances to convince the committee that it belongs—is precisely what this team needs."
Oklahoma has that 2014 Ohio State look about it heading into the final two weeks of the regular season. It will have to knock off rival Oklahoma State away from home and get some help if Notre Dame wins out, but it's time to get on board with the Sooners as contenders. They'll be a problem for any team if they can get into the final four.
Verdict: Reluctant Buy
6. Oklahoma State
5 of 10
While Oklahoma has taken Ohio State's narrative from last season in its playoff push, rival Oklahoma State has taken the Buckeyes' actual poll position at this point in the year, as ESPN's Brett McMurphy noted Tuesday night: "Deja OSU? Oklahoma State is this week’s No. 6 team. Last year in this poll, eventual national champ Ohio State was No. 6."
The way Oklahoma State has played this season hasn't won the Cowboys many admirers. They've had to come from behind in almost every road game this season, and the numbers from their performances have them rated No. 20 in overall S&P+, despite their perfect 10-0 record. That's worse than some four-loss teams.
However, Oklahoma State is in a great position to make the playoff and create some chaos if it just keeps winning. The Cowboys have definitely shown they can do that in a variety of situations. They also have the advantage of a favorable schedule—they host Baylor and Oklahoma in Stillwater, where they've played much better football statistically than they have on the road.
Getting past the Bears and the Sooners in back-to-back weeks is no easy task, no matter the venue. Although Oklahoma might get the best of Mike Gundy's team in this year's massive Bedlam game, this is by far my most reluctant sell of the season. These Cowboys just keep finding ways to prove the doubters wrong.
Verdict: Reluctant Sell
5. Iowa
6 of 10
Last month, I wrote that it was hard to tell if Iowa had enough staying power as a contender, especially considering how the schedule set the Hawkeyes up well for an undefeated run into conference championship week.
A few weeks later, that mindset hasn't changed too much, although Iowa has picked up some more support along the way. In a season in which trap games have killed off national and conference title hopes, the Hawkeyes keep winning and keep climbing in the rankings. Iowa's offense continues to find new people to score on the ground, and the defense—while fading from its form in the last two games—is legitimate.
Iowa should cruise over Purdue this weekend, but watch out for next week's road trip to Nebraska. Iowa will have to make a quicker turnaround than usual for the Friday game, and Nebraska will be coming off a bye week. The Huskers, who have already derailed Michigan State's undefeated run, need a win at home to become bowl-eligible.
If the Hawkeyes survive the trip to Lincoln, the winner of the Big Ten East awaits in what could very well be a national quarterfinal. Iowa hasn't done anything much to sway from last month's stock evaluation—a better-than-expected team that took full advantage of an easy schedule and has a fighting chance at springing a huge upset in December.
Verdict: Moderate Sell
4. Notre Dame
7 of 10
Notre Dame, theoretically, should be in one of the best positions possible for championship contention. The Fighting Irish have one loss this season, but the committee has placed them high up since its initial rankings two weeks ago. Now at No. 4, they should be in if they win out.
But in addition to a road game against a two-loss Stanford team that is as dangerous as anyone else in the country when its offense can hold on to the ball, Notre Dame has to watch out for the entire state of Oklahoma and a "conference title bump."
Bill Connelly of SB Nation wrote:
"Notre Dame "remains strong in the four," committee chair Jeff Long said on ESPN, but he added that the committee sees "Big 12 teams emerging" from the conference's backloaded schedule.
An undefeated Oklahoma State with late wins over Baylor in Week 12 and Oklahoma in Week 13 would be a prime candidate to pass an 11-1 Notre Dame...
Oklahoma could pass the Irish, too, though that case would be interesting.
"
Even if Notre Dame wins at Stanford, the Big 12 is lurking with the appeal of a possible undefeated team and/or that conference championship the committee craves. There's a lot of football and a lot more debating between now and then, but those scenarios have me slightly backing away from the Irish.
Verdict: Reluctant Sell
3. Ohio State
8 of 10
We're already in the back half of November, but Ohio State is about to get its first true test of the season when it faces a ranked Michigan State team this weekend.
After 10 straight wins to start the season, the defending national champions have a tough road at the end of the year. They'll face one-loss Michigan State, currently two-loss Michigan and possibly undefeated Iowa in three straight weeks. How will a relatively untested 2015 team handle those challenges?
Fortunately for Ohio State, a good number of its starters can draw from last year's run to the national championship and the momentum from some stronger performances in recent weeks. With J.T. Barrett at quarterback, Ohio State has been able to move the ball much more efficiently, and its defense hasn't allowed more than 14 points in each of its last four games.
Ohio State is looking more like the team it was supposed to be all season long with Barrett now locked in at QB1. The Buckeyes have the talent and the experience to win it all again, and I'm still high on their chances down what will be a tougher stretch of their schedule. The defending champs are strong buys until they prove me wrong.
Verdict: Strong Buy
2. Alabama
9 of 10
It's November, Alabama has one loss, and the Tide are still rolling their way toward a shot at the national championship. If this doesn't sound familiar, let me welcome you to your first year of college football fandom.
Since dropping a wild, mistake-filled yet close loss to Ole Miss back in September, Alabama has looked like a strong national championship contender for the most part. The Tide's dominant defensive front, which looks like one of the best in recent memory, shut down LSU running back Leonard Fournette's runaway Heisman campaign, and the Derrick Henry-led offense blew out Mississippi State since the last stock evaluation.
Now Alabama is cruising into a cupcake matchup against FCS opponent Charleston Southern before heading into an Iron Bowl matchup with struggling rival Auburn. If the Tide clinch the SEC West with a win on the Plains, they'll face a Florida team in the SEC Championship Game that doesn't look like it has what it takes to put up a strong fight against the Alabama defense.
Like Ohio State, Alabama has a strong talent advantage, plenty of momentum and the experience of competing for a playoff berth last season. This is another one of Nick Saban's patented championship-contending teams, and it doesn't look like it will slow down between now and the final four.
Verdict: Strong Buy
1. Clemson
10 of 10
Clemson has been a good bet for the playoff for a while now, and the Tigers have knocked off Florida State since their last stock evaluation, when I marked them as a "Strong Buy." Now at No. 1 in the country and boasting great balance on both sides of the ball, Clemson will coast into the top seed with three more wins.
However, in the last few weeks, a stronger threat has emerged in Clemson's path to the College Football Playoff—North Carolina. The one-loss Tar Heels have been lighting it up offensively and will most likely face the Tigers in the ACC Championship Game.
Clemson's strong defense has allowed at least 5.7 yards per play in each of its last three wins, including a rough road trip against Syracuse, and North Carolina has the nation's second-best offense at 7.6 yards per play. Also, North Carolina hasn't allowed more than 31 points in a game during a stunning defensive turnaround and has kept eight of its 10 opponents at 21 or fewer points.
The Tigers are much better as a whole than upstart North Carolina, but the Tar Heels' big-play ways make them just the kind of team who can cause a huge problem in the first weekend of December. I still like Clemson's chances of making the playoff and competing for the national championship, but win No. 13 doesn't look like a sure thing.
Verdict: Moderate Buy
Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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