Ultimate Chaos Theories for Every Top 25 College Football Team
As the 2015 college football season marches toward the College Football Playoff, the one thing we know is that we’re really not sure about anything.
Five unbeaten teams remain as we enter Week 12 (Clemson, Houston, Iowa, Ohio State and Oklahoma State), and each week has been unpredictable. One week after a number of unbeatens bit the dust, Week 11 was crazy, too, with four Top 10 teams falling.
With three weeks remaining before the second College Football Playoff field is announced, lots can still happen. Lots of chaos can happen.
One year ago, only one team (Florida State) reached the playoff unbeaten, and we’re trending toward a similar stat this season. Expect the unexpected before playoff teams are announced on Dec. 6.
Here’s a look at the ultimate chaos theories for this week’s College Football Playoff Top 25. This is not a prediction of what will happen but rather a look at the most chaotic moments that could unfold for each team to ultimately achieve its best possible result.
25. Wisconsin
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Paul Chryst’s first season in Madison hasn’t been too bad. The Badgers’ only losses have come to Alabama and Iowa—the current No. 2 and No. 5 teams, respectively—and they’re 8-2 and in line for another 10-win season.
A Big Ten West title seems unlikely, with the Hawkeyes owning a one-game lead and tiebreaker over the Badgers. But it could happen.
Wisconsin defeats No. 20 Northwestern at home and then handles rival Minnesota in the regular-season finale. Meanwhile, Iowa is stunned at home by Purdue and then runs into a buzzsaw in Lincoln on Black Friday against a Nebraska team desperate to get bowl-eligible.
Suddenly, the Badgers are the West champs and off to Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game.
24. Southern California
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Southern California has already endured plenty of chaos this season.
The Trojans were a trendy College Football Playoff pick, but their season got off to an ugly start. A home loss to a young Washington team dropped them to 3-2, and head coach Steve Sarkisian was fired shortly afterward for alcohol abuse. The Trojans lost to Notre Dame the following week but haven’t been defeated since.
At 7-3, they’re firmly in the mix with Utah for the Pac-12 South crown, tied at 5-2 entering the final two weeks. Interim coach Clay Helton has done an excellent job.
Helton’s bunch beats Oregon and UCLA to close the regular season, and wins a tiebreaker with Utah for the division thanks to an earlier 42-24 win.
They follow that up with a Pac-12 title game win over Stanford and claim a most unlikely league title, earning Helton the full-time job.
23. Oregon
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The post-Marcus Mariota era in Eugene hasn’t always been pleasant. Following a national runner-up finish in 2014, Oregon’s offense had to deal with the hole left by the Heisman Trophy winner.
Graduate transfer Vernon Adams’ finger injury kept him from filling it as capably as some would have liked—at least early on—with an ugly 62-20 loss to Utah and a 45-38 double-overtime loss to Washington State.
However, Adams is healthy and Oregon has won four consecutive games to pull within a game of Stanford for the Pac-12 North lead. Another trip to the league title game remains a possibility.
Oregon knocks off Southern California in Autzen Stadium and then blasts woeful Oregon State at home to end the season.
Stanford falls to rival Cal, and Washington State is upset by rival Washington in the season-ending Apple Cup, handing Oregon an improbable division crown.
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22. Ole Miss
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2015 has turned into a disappointing season for Ole Miss. Coming off a 9-4 season and Peach Bowl bid, the Rebels hoped to use an impressive group of upperclassman talent to rise even higher in the SEC West.
Hugh Freeze’s group cracked the Top 5 following an early upset of Alabama, but losses to Florida, Memphis and Arkansas left it as a College Football Playoff also-ran.
It’s not too late to make noise in the SEC West, however. The Rebels enter the final two weeks of the regular season only a game behind Alabama.
Ole Miss upsets LSU and then takes care of Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. Meanwhile, Auburn stuns Alabama in the Iron Bowl. Coupled with MSU’s win over Arkansas, that gives the Rebels a very surprising SEC West title and trip to Atlanta for a rematch with Florida.
21. Memphis
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Under Justin Fuente’s watch, Memphis has become one of the hottest Power Five programs. The Tigers have followed up the program’s first 10-win season since 1971 with an 8-2 record that includes an upset of regional rival Ole Miss.
Losses to Houston and Navy have left Memphis on the outside of the American Athletic Conference West race looking in, but the Tigers can still throw a wrench into Temple’s hopes of a conference title with a win on Saturday.
By doing so, they can win 10 games for the second consecutive season, which would be chaotic to the college football world’s perception of Memphis.
20. Northwestern
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2015 has been a resurgent season for Northwestern. Following a pair of 5-7 seasons, the Wildcats are bowl-eligible for the first time since 2012 at 8-2, with an impressive win over Stanford being the season highlight.
With a pair of Big Ten losses, they can’t catch 6-0 Iowa for the Big Ten West title, since Iowa owns a 40-10 win over the Wildcats. Instead, Northwestern ends Wisconsin’s Big Ten hopes with a win in Madison and defeats Illinois in Chicago to clinch a bounce-back 10-win season.
19. Houston
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Who would have expected this? When Tom Herman took over Houston last winter, he took the helm of a program that had fallen short of expectations with consecutive 8-5 seasons.
The Cougars have exceeded all expectations this fall, rolling to a 10-0 start with games left against UConn and Navy.
They defeat both teams and win an AAC title game against Temple to take the Group of Five spot in a New Year’s Six bowl with a most improbable 13-0 record, forcing the College Football Playoff committee to think long and hard before leaving them out of the playoff.
18. TCU
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This wasn’t how 2015 was supposed to go for TCU.
The Horned Frogs returned their offensive core, led by star senior quarterback Trevone Boykin, and hoped to take the next step to the College Football Playoff. Instead, defensive losses and injuries have made the season a tightrope walk, and the Frogs fell off with a 49-29 loss to Oklahoma State.
Still, a Big 12 title remains within grasp. Gary Patterson’s group defeats Oklahoma and Baylor, and the Sooners help out by upending the Cowboys in Bedlam.
That hands TCU the Big 12 title, which is no small accomplishment for the second consecutive season.
17. North Carolina
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When we look back on the 2015 season, one of the most inexplicable results will be South Carolina 17, North Carolina 13.
On the season’s opening night, the Tar Heels and quarterback Marquise Williams played as poorly as they have all year, and South Carolina claimed a stunning victory in Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium.
North Carolina hasn’t lost since, topping the 50-point mark four times, including putting up 66 points on Duke and 59 on Miami. The Tar Heels are in perfect position to win the ACC Coastal Division. They clinch by defeating Virginia Tech and follow that up with a win over crosstown foe N.C. State to finish the regular season 11-1.
Next up is an ACC title game matchup with Clemson. The Tar Heels deny the Tigers an ACC title by winning in a shootout and completing an exceptional run to league glory.
16. Navy
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What a debut it has been for Navy in the American Athletic Conference. The Midshipmen are 8-1 (6-0 in league play), with their only loss coming at Notre Dame’s hands.
They’re out of the College Football Playoff hunt but firmly in contention for the Group of Five spot in the New Year’s Six bowls.
Here’s how it happens. Navy defeats Tulsa, then upsets unbeaten Houston on the road on Nov. 27 and Temple in the AAC title game. With the playoff committee holding the Group of Five spot open pending their result against Army on Dec. 12, Navy takes care of business in the day’s only game and earns a New Year’s Day bowl bid at 11-1.
15. LSU
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Oh, how quickly things can change in the SEC West. Two weeks ago, LSU was 7-0 and ranked No. 2 in the College Football Playoff rankings.
Following ugly losses to Alabama and Arkansas, the Tigers are on the fringe of the Top 15 and out of the SEC West race, and the Advocate's Scott Rabalais suggested that Les Miles could be coaching for his job.
Miles quiets the doubters by ending Ole Miss’ hopes of a West crown and defeating Texas A&M in the regular-season finale. The Tigers then win their bowl game to finish 10-2 and keep Miles perfectly secure as head coach.
14. Florida State
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This was always supposed to be a reloading year for Florida State, and it has turned out that way. Losses to Clemson and Georgia Tech mean FSU won’t win an ACC Championship for the first time since 2011.
But the Seminoles can still have some fun along the way.
FCS foe Chattanooga is a gimme, but a trip to resurgent Florida is not. The Seminoles upset Jim McElwain’s team and end any shot the Gators had at the College Football Playoff, then win a New Year’s Six bowl game to finish with 11 victories and huge momentum for 2016.
13. Utah
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Following a pair of 5-7 seasons, Utah made a nice rebound to 9-4 last fall, and Kyle Whittingham’s team has been even better this season.
The Utes rose as high as No. 3 nationally before falling to Southern California, and they’re 8-2 entering the home stretch with a shot at 10 wins and a Pac-12 title.
Utah has home games against UCLA and Colorado left on its schedule. The Utes defeat the Bruins and Colorado, and get help from the Bruins, who knock off Southern California in the season finale.
That’s enough to earn a shot at Stanford in the Pac-12 title game, and Utah defeats the Cardinal to win an unlikely league title.
12. Michigan
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Michigan has had an exceptional first season under Jim Harbaugh’s intense watch. The Wolverines are 8-2, with the only losses coming in the opener at Utah and to Michigan State on a final-play blocked punt returned for a touchdown.
There's no shame in either of those defeats, to be certain.
A two-loss Big Ten team is likely already out of the College Football Playoff picture, but the Wolverines can still make some noise. Winning at Penn State and ruining Ohio State’s season and playoff hopes by upsetting the Buckeyes at the Big House would go a long way.
The Buckeyes will have already defeated Michigan State, giving Michigan the Big Ten East title. With a win over previously unbeaten Iowa in the Big Ten title game, Michigan has a most improbable Big Ten title.
11. Stanford
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Following an 8-5 2014 season, Stanford has found its way back to Pac-12 prominence this fall. The Cardinal are 8-2 following last week’s difficult loss to Oregon but remain in control of their path to the league title game.
A win over Cal would clinch the Pac-12 North, and with an upset of Notre Dame in the regular-season finale, things would get interesting.
A lot would have to happen for a two-loss Stanford team to make the College Football Playoff, but it’s possible. Imagine the Cardinal defeat Utah in the Pac-12 title game, bolstering their resume.
Baylor emerges from a crowded field as the Big 12 champion, and Florida—currently ranked ahead of Stanford—loses to Florida State but surprises Alabama in the SEC title game. And North Carolina stuns Clemson in the ACC title game.
That’s a path that could land Stanford in the four-team playoff.
10. Baylor
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One year ago, Baylor was left on the outside looking in with an 11-1 record and the only loss coming at West Virginia’s hands.
Following last week’s loss to Oklahoma, the Bears and their potent offense are staring at a similar fate. The Bears must defeat Oklahoma State, TCU and Texas to have any shot at the College Football Playoff, and they need some help beyond that.
TCU defeats the Sooners, who turn around and defeat the Cowboys, which opens up the league title for Baylor. Ohio State’s defeat of Iowa and Notre Dame’s loss to Stanford pave a path into the playoff for the Bears.
9. Michigan State
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Michigan State finds itself in solid shape as we enter mid-November. The Spartans are 9-1, with the only defeat being a controversial 39-38 home loss to Nebraska.
Mark Dantonio’s team is right on the edge of the playoff picture, with a road trip to East nemesis Ohio State next, followed by a regular-season home finale against Penn State.
This fall, Sparty gets revenge for last season’s 49-37 home defeat at the Buckeyes’ hands and then beats the Nittany Lions to win the Big Ten East. In the Big Ten title game, the Spartans beat Iowa.
Stanford’s upset of Notre Dame, coupled with Oklahoma State’s defeat at Oklahoma’s hands and TCU’s win over the Sooners, opens the door for one-loss Michigan State to make the College Football Playoff.
8. Florida
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Florida’s turnaround under Jim McElwain is something to behold. The Gators were bad and boring under Will Muschamp, but McElwain’s energy and pro-style offense have revitalized the program.
They’re 9-1 with their only loss coming by a touchdown at LSU, which is hardly a night to be ashamed of.
Florida has already won the SEC East, with home games against Florida Atlantic and Florida State remaining. Let’s assume the Gators defeat both Florida teams and go into the SEC title game 11-1 against Alabama.
McElwain scores a massive upset against the talented Tide and mentor Nick Saban, and it’ll be impossible to keep the Gators out of the College Football Playoff in his first season in Gainesville.
7. Oklahoma
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The Sooners have made an excellent turnaround from 2014’s ugly 8-5 season, thanks in large part to new offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley’s Air Raid offense and new starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, who has thrown for 3,082 yards and 31 touchdowns.
The Sooners are 9-1 following last week’s upset of then-unbeaten Baylor, and they’re in solid position for the College Football Playoff.
They have a chance to earn it, too, with TCU and Oklahoma State remaining on the schedule. The Sooners must beat the Horned Frogs and Cowboys to finish 11-1 with a loss to Texas, which is a bad defeat. Beating Oklahoma will move them a spot higher in the rankings.
Ohio State defeats fellow unbeaten Iowa in the Big Ten title game, and Stanford upsets Notre Dame in the regular-season finale.
The one-loss Sooners make a remarkable charge into the playoff field alongside Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State.
6. Oklahoma State
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At 10-0, the Cowboys are one of the best stories of the 2015 season. A young team has taken a big step forward under Mike Gundy’s steady hand, and only home games against Baylor and Oklahoma stand between OSU and an unbeaten season.
That unbeaten dream ends at Baylor’s hands on Saturday night. But the Cowboys rebound to defeat the Sooners in Bedlam on Nov. 28, a day after a now-healthy Trevone Boykin and TCU surprise Baylor.
The Cowboys finish with one loss and sneak past Notre Dame for the fourth spot in the College Football Playoff.
5. Iowa
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Is there a more improbable story than Iowa’s in the 2015 college football season? A year ago, the Hawkeyes were 7-6 and fans were thoroughly disenchanted with Kirk Ferentz.
The offseason makeover of his program took root, however, and the Hawks are 10-0 thanks to the play of quarterback C.J. Beathard, a bruising running game and a solid defense.
Iowa's multifaceted run game, keyed by running game coordinator Brian Ferentz (Kirk Ferentz's son) has played a huge role.
Rick Brown of the Des Moines Register wrote that Iowa's players trust Brian Ferentz. "He knows what plays will be great, and the schemes and everything to get us in the best position to run the ball and be successful,” running back Jordan Canzeri said.
At No. 5, the Hawks are right on the cusp of the final four but likely need to be unbeaten to earn a spot. That means beating Purdue and Nebraska to go into the Big 10 title game unbeaten.
Michigan State helps the Hawks by upending Ohio State at home, and the Spartans take the Big Ten East title. Iowa takes down the Spartans in Indianapolis and makes a surprising trip to the College Football Playoff unbeaten.
4. Notre Dame
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At No. 4 entering the final three weeks of the season, Notre Dame is in excellent shape to make the College Football Playoff. The Fighting Irish’s only loss came at the hands of top-ranked Clemson, 24-22 in a South Carolina monsoon. Hardly a damaging defeat.
With a neutral-site game against Boston College and a road game against Stanford remaining, the road to 11-1 is clear.
Let’s assume that Clemson and Alabama win out and claim the top two spots, and Ohio State does the same for the No. 3 spot.
That pits the Irish against one-loss Oklahoma, the Big 12 champion, for the final spot. The committee determines that losing to Clemson is better than losing to woeful Texas and awards the final playoff spot to the Irish.
3. Ohio State
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Despite offensive inconsistencies, Ohio State has rolled right along at 10-0 entering the final two weeks of the regular season. The Buckeyes have difficult games left against Michigan State and Michigan, but an unbeaten season is well within their grasp.
Let’s say they take care of the Spartans this week in Columbus, but Michigan awaits in the Big House. Coming off a loss at Penn State and motivated by first-year coach Jim Harbaugh, the Wolverines stun Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes.
But Ohio State still wins the Big Ten East, and the Bucks—shaken awake—blast Iowa in the Big 10 title game.
That’s enough, again, to earn a playoff spot alongside Clemson, Alabama and Notre Dame. Once again, the Big 12—this time represented by one-loss Oklahoma State and one-loss Baylor—is snubbed, forcing the 10-team conference into expansion and a league title game.
2. Alabama
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Alabama’s 2015 season is following a familiar script.
A year ago, the Crimson Tide shook off an early loss to Ole Miss and rolled to an SEC title and College Football Playoff berth.
This fall, another early loss to the Rebels—fueled by five turnovers—put the season in peril, but Nick Saban’s group has rebounded in a big way, winning seven consecutive games for a 9-1 record.
Once again, the Tide are right on path for a playoff berth. This week’s date with FCS foe Charleston Southern is a gimme, but an Iron Bowl trip to Auburn is always treacherous.
An improving Auburn team stuns the Tide in Jordan-Hare Stadium, but LSU’s win over Ole Miss still hands ‘Bama the SEC West title. A motivated Tide team rolls over Florida in Atlanta and wins the SEC West title.
Clemson and Ohio State claim playoff spots with unbeaten records, and one-loss Notre Dame claims the third spot. So it’s the two-loss Tide against the Big 12 champ. TCU defeats Oklahoma but loses to Baylor. Baylor defeats Oklahoma State. And Oklahoma stuns the Cowboys in Bedlam.
Then, Texas stuns the world by upsetting Baylor in Waco on Dec. 5, leaving four two-loss teams atop the Big 12.
The committee shrugs and puts Alabama into the field as the No. 4 seed. Now that would indeed be chaotic.
1. Clemson
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Dabo Swinney’s team has made the leap from excellent to elite in 2015. The 10-0 Tigers are ranked No. 1 for the first time since 1981—when the program won its only national title—and are firmly on track to make the College Football Playoff, especially with sub-.500 Wake Forest and South Carolina remaining on their regular-season slate.
Can Clemson afford a loss and still make the playoff? It’s unlikely but possible.
Say the Tigers are 12-0 and firmly No. 1 entering the ACC Championship Game against red-hot North Carolina, whose only loss came in the season opener to the Gamecocks. Marquise Williams and the Tar Heels offense leave the team's Bank of America Stadium ghosts behind, and UNC stuns the Tigers in a shootout.
Clemson has a loss, but along with unbeaten Big 10 champ Iowa, one-loss Alabama and one-loss Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor, the Tigers still have a resume impressive enough to sneak into the field as the No. 4 seed—comfortably ahead of the ACC champion Tar Heels.
Editor's note: An earlier version of this article mistakenly projected that Houston or Navy could face Memphis in the AAC title game, but that is not possible because they are all in the same division. We regret the error.
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