The Wild Race for the 2015 Heisman Trophy
LSU running back Leonard Fournette was unstoppable. You know this, because you, along with the rest of the free-loving college football world, saw him play.
"Play" is an appropriate verb here, because Fournette looked so effortless when he ran. It was clearly fun for him, and the opposite of that for everyone else.
You watched the Auburn game on Sept. 19 as Fournette went full beast mode by running around, under and through defenders for 228 yards. And then you witnessed him do it again against Syracuse. And again against South Carolina. And Florida. And Western Kentucky.
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Through October, the Heisman was Fournette's, and the more relevant question was who would finish second—and by how large a margin.
And then you watched, stunned, as it all came to a screeching halt against Alabama's vaunted run defense. You saw Fournette try his best yet manage only 31 yards on 19 carries. Meanwhile, Fournette's Alabama counterpart, Derrick Henry, rushed for 210 yards in a 30-16 Crimson Tide victory.
It was then that the Heisman race became an actual race for the first time in the 2015 season—and for the first time in a few years. Things broke open more when Fournette failed to eclipse 100 yards again in a 31-14 loss to Arkansas the following Saturday.
Now, with just three weeks left before Heisman votes must be submitted, there are a half-dozen candidates—at least—with a legitimate claim to be named college football's most outstanding player. Unlike previous years, Fournette's decline hasn't yielded a clear successor.
"It doesn't feel like there's one go-to guy to take over that front-runner spot," said Zac Ellis of Sports Illustrated, a Heisman voter.
Who's No. 1? Look at the Running Backs
There is a front-runner, technically. Odds Shark has Henry as the odds-on favorite to win the award if the season ended today. However, this is as fluid a Heisman race as we've seen in a few years:
| Player | Position, School | Odds |
| Derrick Henry | Running Back, Alabama | 2-3 |
| Leonard Fournette | Running Back, LSU | 9-2 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | Running Back, Ohio State | 9-2 |
| Deshaun Watson | Quarterback, Clemson | 7-1 |
| Corey Coleman | Wide Receiver, Baylor | 25-1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | Running Back, Stanford | 50-1 |
"I think it's Derrick Henry's to lose," said Bleacher Report's Christopher Walsh, another Heisman voter. "I don't think Fournette can win. You pretty much have to carry a region. I think a lot of voters in the South are going to go with Henry as of now."
Still, the South voting region could be the most divisive with Henry, Fournette and Florida State running back Dalvin Cook in the picture.
Cook, interestingly enough, doesn't show up on the latest Heisman odds, but he's been Florida State's MVP. The sophomore broke the school's single-season rushing record previously held by Warrick Dunn in Week 11 against North Carolina State. Despite having battled hamstring and ankle injuries, Cook is at 1,369 yards on the year with two games remaining. Keep in mind, too, that Cook missed a game because of injury. His numbers could be—should be—better.
However, Ellis noted that Cook may be held down in the voting because Florida State will not play on the first weekend in December, days before votes must be submitted. Clemson has already wrapped up the ACC Atlantic division and will presumably play North Carolina in the conference championship game.
No matter how well Cook performs in the next two weeks against Tennessee-Chattanooga and Florida, his regular season will end one game early.
If there is a running back who can challenge Henry, Ellis and Walsh believe it's Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott ranks third nationally behind Fournette and Henry in rushing yards (1,425) and has 16 touchdowns. He's logged at least 100 yards in every game this season.
| Player | School | Rushing Yards | Receiving Yards | Total TDs |
| Leonard Fournette | LSU | 1,474 | 94 | 17 |
| Derrick Henry | Alabama | 1,458 | 69 | 19 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | Ohio State | 1,425 | 169 | 16 |
| Dalvin Cook | Florida State | 1,369 | 202 | 15 |
The single most amazing thing about Elliott's year is that he has done it all quietly. Sure, he's in the Heisman conversation, but what he's accomplished feels secondary to other storylines surrounding the Buckeyes.
Chatter about Ohio State has revolved around two things: the playoff, the subset of which is whether the Buckeyes should be ranked in the top four based on whom they've beaten and how they've looked to date; and the quarterback situation with J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones.
Everything changes for Ohio State starting this Saturday against Michigan State. In the next two and potentially three weeks, Elliott will face the Spartans, Michigan and Iowa (barring an end-of-season meltdown from the Hawkeyes). Elliott, of all the running backs, can pick up the most momentum.
"This is their season," Ellis said.
What About the Quarterbacks?
The Heisman has traditionally favored quarterbacks, but more so in recent years. If you remove former USC running back Reggie Bush from the list of winners—that's up to you; the Heisman trust does not recognize Bush because of the NCAA scandal—13 of the last 14 winners have been quarterbacks.
Yet 2015 has been the year of the running back.
There are myriad reasons for this, but it boils down to a lack of star power at quarterback on playoff-caliber teams. Fair or not, overall record plays a role in which players get Heisman consideration. Luke Falk (Washington State), Patrick Mahomes II (Texas Tech) and Jared Goff (Cal) are among the more prolific passers in college football, but none play on a team anywhere close to the playoff conversation.
"It's become such a quarterback award, and this year there really isn't that guy that makes people say, 'He's the best quarterback.' I think that's what makes it such an unusual race," Walsh said.
Injuries have definitely played a part (and have been more unforgiving than usual for college football's star players). The Big 12's top two quarterbacks for much of the year, Baylor's Seth Russell and TCU's Trevone Boykin, are hurt. Russell, who had 35 total touchdowns, is out for the remainder of the year with a neck fracture. Boykin is questionable for Saturday's game against Oklahoma with an ankle injury.
Realistically, there are two quarterbacks with a legitimate shot at the Heisman: Clemson's Deshaun Watson and Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield. The pair have taken two entirely different paths to get to this point.
Watson is the reliable gear that turns the Clemson machine, which is No. 1 in the College Football Playoff Top 25. His numbers are solid (2,601 passing yards, 598 rushing yards, 28 touchdowns) but not gaudy. His improvisational skills are more subtle, as explained by B/R's Michael Felder:
Watson does many things well; he almost makes it look so easy that the casual observer can take it for granted. His ball placement, decision-making and mobility are all top-notch.
Mayfield is the exact opposite. He has the flash and the bravado. He's the trash-talker and the all-time quarterback during the pickup game in your friend's backyard. And he's the player with the most Heisman hype entering Week 12. His breakout performance came against Baylor in Week 11, in which he threw for 270 yards, ran for another 76 and accounted for four touchdowns.
His improvisational skills mirror Johnny Manziel's. The longer he holds on to the ball and evades defenders, the more likely it is that he'll make the opposing defense look bad.
The win over the Bears officially launched Mayfield's Heisman campaign. Teammates began tweeting #Baker4Heisman on Twitter, and the Sooners' official Twitter page joined in with the best pixelated Heisman campaign you'll see:
Statistically speaking, Mayfield has been on pace with two recent Heisman-winning quarterbacks from Oklahoma: Sam Bradford and Jason White. Yet he gives the Sooners offense an entirely different dimension than Bradford or White because of his scrambling and running ability.
All this raises the question: Where was Mayfield all year? Plenty of Oklahoma fans surely remember the comeback win over Tennessee in September, but only now is Mayfield legitimately entering the Heisman conversation.
Walsh explained, "Part of it is Oklahoma started low in the rankings. Part of it has been the schedule and the whole perception that no one in the Big 12 was playing anyone tough until the last month.
"The Texas loss is a huge black mark against him. No one thinks Texas is any good this year. If you have a loss, it better be a quality loss. Mayfield needs to finish really strong."
You certainly can't say Mayfield won't have the opportunity. Oklahoma faces TCU and Oklahoma State over the next two weeks. In a year when the Heisman race has lacked a notable quarterback, Mayfield can seize momentum at the right time against the toughest competition.
The Heisman Moment
What makes this Heisman race a real one is that for many of the candidates, the biggest moments are still ahead.
"The biggest argument for a guy is: How did he play in the biggest game against the biggest opponent?" Ellis said. "How do you perform, say, when you're down on the road? If you're a running back, are you getting the ball a lot? Are you coming through when your team needs you?"
Every Heisman contender, including a few not on the most recent odds, has at least one big game remaining. Watson won't have a major opponent until the ACC Championship Game. Elliott has perhaps the hardest stretch versus quality opponents. Cook and Henry could face Florida, which has the No. 10 rush defense, in back-to-back weeks.
These will be the games that mold the Heisman race unlike any other time in the season. Maybe the so-called "Heisman moment" has already happened. It could have been when Henry rushed for 210 yards against LSU. It could have been Mayfield's performance against Baylor. But with so many candidates and critical, playoff-defining games on the line, chances are the Heisman moment hasn't happened yet.
| Player | Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 |
| Derrick Henry | Charleston Southern | at Auburn | -- |
| Leonard Fournette | at Ole MIss | Texas A&M | -- |
| Ezekiel Elliott | Michigan State | at Michigan | -- |
| Deshaun Watson | Wake Forest | at South Carolina | ACC Title Game |
| Corey Coleman | at Oklahoma State | at TCU | Texas |
| Christian McCaffrey | Cal | Notre Dame | -- |
| Baker Mayfield | TCU | at Oklahoma State | -- |
Make no mistake: A team doesn't have to necessarily win those big games for the Heisman contender to keep pace. But that player does have to put his team in a position to win. When two Heisman contenders go head-to-head, voters will look at which player made the biggest impact.
That explains Henry's current edge over Fournette.
"Fournette and LSU lost to Alabama. Derrick Henry had a big day, Fournette didn't," Walsh said.
The last time a race was this wide-open was in 2011, when Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III needed four touchdowns in a win over Texas in the final week of the season to seal the deal. Until that game, RG3 was in a battle with Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck and Alabama running back Trent Richardson.
In 2009, the year Alabama running back Mark Ingram won, the Heisman voting was the closest it had been in 75 years.
"We were going into the SEC championship game, and everyone was still talking about [former Florida quarterback and 2007 Heisman winner] Tim Tebow. Ingram ended up having the big game and won the Heisman," Walsh said.
The 2015 Heisman race is no longer just a race; it's a sprint. And it could go down to the final week with as many as five or six players making their way to New York, some of whom haven't been mentioned once in this piece.
For all anyone knows, Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds could make his way into the discussion if the Midshipmen keep winning. Against SMU in Week 11, Reynolds broke the Football Bowl Subdivision record for most career rushing touchdowns. He now has 81.
As exciting and wide-open as the playoff race has been, the Heisman race is right there with it. The sheer number of quality games featuring quality players packed into the next three weeks ensures that 2015 will be nothing short of unpredictable.
"For once, we actually have a real race for the Heisman," Ellis said.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes obtained firsthand unless noted otherwise. All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com.
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