Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The NFC North-leading Minnesota Vikings (7-2) host the Green Bay Packers (6-3) in a huge divisional showdown Sunday and will try to extend their winning streak to six games. The Vikings are also 7-1 straight-up in their last eight—going a perfect 8-0 against the spread—and face a Green Bay team that has lost three in a row SU and four straight ATS.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.9-14.5 Vikings

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers are 7-2-1 SU in their past 10 games following a loss, although that number was even better before their last two defeats. Still, they have arguably the best quarterback in the NFL in Aaron Rodgers, who has managed to keep them competitive in the last two losses even when it appeared like they had virtually no chance to win.

Rodgers has led Green Bay to four wins in the past five trips to Minnesota and remains one of the most confident players around despite the losing streak. He does not panic in any situation and always believes he can make plays regardless of the scenario.

In last week’s 18-16 home loss to the Detroit Lions, he was nearly perfect on the final scoring drive and made a good pass on what would have been the game-tying two-point conversion. But his wide receiver Davante Adams simply could not make the catch.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

After the Cincinnati Bengals lost as double-digit favorites on Monday night, Minnesota became the hottest team in the league versus the number, covering eight in a row since a 20-3 loss to the San Francisco 49ers as three-point road favorites in the season opener. The Vikings could be the most well-coached team next to the New England Patriots, as Mike Zimmer continues to do a tremendous job.

Zimmer is certainly the best coach in the NFC North right now, which is why his team is in first place ahead of Green Bay. In a game like this that is so close on paper, coaching can make a huge difference, and Minnesota has a significant edge here.

Packers head coach Mike McCarthy has a tendency to rely excessively on his offense to make plays, putting an enormous amount of pressure on quarterback Rodgers—probably too much.

Smart pick

Rodgers can only do so much, as he cannot block, run the ball for a majority of the game or play defense. Those are all weaknesses for Green Bay right now that will be exploited yet again by the Vikings. Minnesota knows that pressuring Rodgers is the key to beating the Packers, just like the Lions, Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos did in the last three games. Look for the Vikings to follow suit and increase their division lead.

Betting trends

The Vikings are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games at home in November.

The Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.

The total has gone under in five of the Packers' last six games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.