Why Florida-FSU Is the Most Important Remaining Game for the SEC's Playoff Hopes

If you so much as glanced over the Week 12 college football slate, you noticed there are a lot of nonconference cupcake games in the SEC. 

Bleacher Report colleague Barrett Sallee believes this perfectly proves why the SEC must go to nine conference games. As far as television/fan interest is concerned, he's right, not to mention the point made by Alabama coach Nick Saban about everyone playing everyone at least once in four years is a valid one. 

So it's ironic in a way that the SEC's biggest remaining game is of the nonconference variety. That would be Florida-Florida State, which takes place Nov. 28. Put simply, it's the most evenly matched game with major playoff implications played by an SEC team in the next two weeks. 

By now, it's obvious Alabama and Florida are the SEC's lone playoff hopefuls. They're the two highest-ranked SEC teams in the College Football Playoff poll at No. 2 and No. 11, respectively. The Gators are likely to crack the Top 10 Tuesday night when the selection committee releases its latest rankings. 

"I kind of look at it like they actually mentioned us," Gators head coach Jim McElwain said earlier this month, per Edgar Thompson of the Orlando Sentinel. "I think that’s a step in the right direction. Now, I do believe Florida should be in that conversation every single year."

Florida has already locked up the SEC East title, so its trip to the conference championship game in Atlanta is guaranteed. Alabama, on the other hand, still has to get through the Iron Bowl (also on Nov. 28) to secure its spot—that is, unless Ole Miss loses one more regular-season game. 

But the best-case scenario for the SEC is Alabama and Florida winning out to ensure the conference has nothing less than a one-loss champion. That would all but officially grant the SEC a spot at the playoff table. Anything else would put the conference's final-four hopes in jeopardy. 

So what has to take place between now and the first week of December for this to happen? 

Alabama and Florida have to beat Charleston Southern and Florida Atlantic on Saturday, respectively. While the Buccaneers of Charleston Southern (9-1) are ranked ninth in the FCS poll with a first-place vote and everything, the Tide shouldn't have any problems winning this game. Similarly, Florida should be just fine against 2-8 FAU. 

That brings us again to Week 13. But let's start by explaining why Alabama-Auburn won't be the SEC's most important game. 

Butch Dill/Associated Press

The Iron Bowl is one of college football's classic rivalries, but the concept of "throwing out the record books" hasn't held true in recent years. The Tide have won five of the last seven games against the Tigers (2008, '09, '11, '12, '14). In those years, Alabama either went on to play for (and win) a national championship or were in position to play for one.

Conversely, Auburn was clearly the lesser team in those years. On three occasions, the Tigers went on to finish with an 8-5 record; the other two times were losing seasons. Four of those five losses came by double digits. The only time an underdog Auburn came close to beating Alabama was in 2009 when the Tide won 26-21. 

Auburn's only two victories over Alabama in the last seven years came in 2010 and '13 when the Tigers went on to play for BCS national championships. Even then, they needed a Cam Newton-led comeback and a "kick-six" to win. 

The point being, Alabama has dominated the Iron Bowl as of late and taken care of business when the situation called for it. This season would lead you to believe the same will happen.

According to Football Outsiders, the Tide are actually the best team in the country statistically speaking. What Alabama did to LSU's rushing attack (54 yards on 26 attempts) is nothing short of astonishing. You have to beat Alabama through the air to have a chance, and Auburn has one of the least-potent passing attacks in the SEC (177.4 yards per game, 24.8 attempts per game, seven touchdowns, nine interceptions).

Or, as Ralph Russo of the Associated Press put more bluntly: 

As for Florida-Florida State, the results themselves have been more split in the same seven-year span. The Seminoles have won four games to the Gators' three. However, in recent years, Florida State has held the edge.

This year, Florida and Florida State should enter their rivalry at 10-1 and 9-2, respectively. The last time the Gators-Seminoles game was this even was in 2012, when each team entered the game with double-digit wins (Florida won 37-26). 

This game has defensive struggle written all over it, as both teams rank in the top 10 nationally in points allowed per game. The X-factor is Seminoles running back Dalvin Cook, a Heisman candidate averaging 152.11 yards per game despite hamstring and ankle injuries. It's a great matchup against the Gators run defense, which has allowed 3.19 yards per rush and seven touchdowns. 

However, as is often the case with potentially close games, results can come down to just a handful of plays going one way over the other. With so much on the line, this is high-stakes football for Florida. 

If the Gators do lose to the Seminoles, the SEC will be cheering hard for Alabama in Atlanta—assuming, of course, the Tide have won out. If Florida wins out and Alabama enters the SEC championship with two losses, conference rooting interests will flip. 

That's where things could get tricky, though. Per Ryan Brown of Jox Radio Network, Alabama would be anywhere between a touchdown and 10-point favorite over the Gators in the SEC Championship Game (as of Nov. 16): 

Ultimately, the SEC wants its championship game to be simple with a pair of one-loss teams. This way, it doesn't matter who wins. The game most likely to prevent that from happening is Florida-Florida State in a little over two weeks. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com unless noted otherwise.