Bills vs. Patriots: Full New England Game Preview

Eight days after slipping by their biggest NFC nemesis, the New York Giants, the New England Patriots will once again reunite with familiar foe Rex Ryan and his Buffalo Bills in the Pats' only Monday night contest of the season. A relentless string of injuries has continued to spring holes in the Patriots lineup, but for now it hasn't had an effect on the bottom-line win-loss record.

Still, every team has its tipping point, and losing running back Dion Lewis and wide receiver Julian Edelman in back-to-back weeks is a debilitating pair of body blows for the league's best offense. Although Tom Brady might begin to get his offensive line back in order soon, it remains unclear whether the Pats offense can continue to function at a league-leading level without its two most dangerous horizontal threats.

This week's game should provide a fairly concrete evaluation of that dilemma. At full health in Week 2, the Pats shredded Buffalo's talented defense to the tune of 40 points and 507 total yards. Both of those remain the worst single-game figures for the Bills defense this season, as only some late-game mismanagement kept the final score within one possession.

New England would surely love a repeat performance, but it also won't be fielding the same squad which dominated much of the game that September afternoon. For full analysis of how the Patriots can win the rematch at Gillette Stadium, read on to see the game's most critical matchups and surrounding factors.

Location: Gillette Stadium; Foxborough, MA

Time: 8:35 pm ET

TV: ESPN

Week 10 Results and Recap

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AFC East Standings

New England Patriots (9-0)

Buffalo Bills (5-4)

New York Jets (5-4)

Miami Dolphins (4-5)

For the sanity of Patriots fans, it's fortunate New England only meets the New York Giants once every four regular seasons. The Week 10 contest at MetLife Stadium bore some strong resemblances to recent heartbreaks for the Patriots, but this time New England was the team that caught the late-game breaks en route to a 27-26 nail-biting win.

Following a breezy 80-yard touchdown drive to open the game, everything became a slog for the Patriots offense after Julian Edelman's foot injury. On the afternoon, the Pats averaged just 6.0 yards per play, the team's second-lowest figure of the regular season thus far. If not for Rob Gronkowski's monster 75-yard touchdown catch which gave the Patriots a fourth-quarter lead, the offense would have averaged only 4.9 yards per play, which would have been a new season low.

The defense was the unit that did the heavy lifting in this game, in spite of a flag-happy trigger from Ed Hochuli's crew. Malcolm Butler shut down Odell Beckham Jr. following a disastrous 87-yard Beckham touchdown on the Giants' second offensive play, limiting the All-Pro wide receiver to three catches for 17 yards the rest of the afternoon.

However, given how badly Justin Coleman and Rashaan Melvin struggled against New York's relatively anonymous secondary receivers, cornerback depth remains a glaring issue the league's better quarterbacks can exploit.

Nonetheless, Stephen Gostkowski's game-winner from 54 yards out delivered a huge measure of relief to a battered team that did not play its best game. This time around, though, the Patriots would likely be happy to avoid another February rematch.

News and Notes

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Pats Shouldn't Panic Over Edelman

The Patriots didn't suffer a truly backbreaking injury until last Sunday, as Julian Edelman's broken foot will force New England to recalibrate its offense. ESPN's Bill Barnwell argued Edelman's injury shouldn't affect the Patriots' long-term bottom line, but it does reduce New England's margin for error:

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The problem for the Patriots is less about Edelman and more about how they're becoming increasingly dependent on the few weapons they have left. They already took a huge hit after breakout star Dion Lewis tore his ACL last week; nominal replacement James White was anonymous against the Giants on Sunday. The Pats can get by with Amendola, but he's an enormous injury risk. They still have Rob Gronkowski, but we're still not too far removed from the days when Patriots fans closed their eyes and prayed that Gronk was going to get up every time he was tackled.

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Barnwell's point is salient if 16-0 is the goal. It's an achievement which would be old news around Foxborough, so if health remains a concern in December, perhaps Bill Belichick considers passing on the chance to go all-out for an unbeaten regular season given how hollow 2007 seems without the corresponding Super Bowl title.

However, New England did catch a big break with both the Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos dropping their Week 10 contests. A Week 12 win in Denver would likely knock the Broncos out of serious first-round bye contention, giving the Pats a chance to catch their breath at the end of the regular season after their early Week 4 bye. Perfection is nice, but New England would surely choose better health over an unblemished record.

Watch Keshawn Martin?

In thinking about how the Pats will replace Edelman's production, most have naturally assumed a larger role for Danny Amendola. After all, Amendola was supposed to become Tom Brady's favored chain-mover upon his arrival in 2013 before his injury-plagued campaign opened the door for Edelman's career-changing breakthrough.

Amendola is surely ticketed for more work, but he wasn't the first name Brady mentioned when talking about Edelman's replacement. Interviewing on WEEI's Dennis & Callahan show, Brady first name-dropped Keshawn Martin, per ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss, who made a positive early impression before missing the past four weeks with a hamstring injury:

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Keshawn Martin is obviously still a good player for us. He’s hopefully coming back here soon [from a hamstring injury].

That Brady mentioned Martin first wasn’t a coincidence, because the 5-foot-11, 194-pound fourth-year pro was coming on strong before injuring his hamstring on Oct. 18. Martin, who was acquired in a trade from the Texans on Sept. 17, hasn’t played in the past four games and has six receptions for 95 yards and one touchdown in three games with the club.

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Martin was a fixture in two-receiver packages during his most recent appearance in Week 6, but that was before Brandon LaFell's return. According to Pro Football Focus, Martin played 59 percent of the snaps in the three games he was active this season, probably a higher number than many would have figured. If he assumes a moderately similar role to the one Edelman filled, that will be the greatest show of confidence yet in the fourth-year receiver.

Belichick Ready for Anything from Ryan

Ryan has always saved his best for the Patriots, who have at times had issues deciphering his amoeba fronts and pressure concepts. That wasn't the case when Brady and Co. laid 40 on the Bills in Week 2, but per the Boston Herald's Karen Guregian, Belichick is expecting Ryan to construct a more varied defensive game plan than what he initially threw at New England:

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There’s plenty examples of them blitzing, there’s plenty examples of them with a three-man rush, so I think you’ve got to be ready for everybody to come, or three guys to come and everywhere in between. They mix it up. You’ve just got to be ready. And that’s historically the way it’s been playing against Ryan. He’s mixed it up. Some games it’s been more of one thing, or other games more of another against us and against other common opponents. So I think we’ve just got to be ready for all of that.

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We'll dive into more depth about this during this week's game-plan article, but in the first game, Ryan was surprisingly vanilla in many of his schemes. Buffalo rarely blitzed, perhaps realizing the futility of committing extra rushers against New England's quick-hitting passing game, but also generally played off coverage. The soft cushion from the Bills' cornerbacks consistently gave the Patriots receivers ample room to work underneath and run after the catch.

With no Edelman or Dion Lewis to worry about, it'll be interesting to see if Buffalo's corners are more aggressive in pressing the New England receivers at the line and forcing them to win at the second level.  Ryan has never shied away from that type of high-risk, high-reward strategy, and it might be necessary for the Bills to spring the upset.

Latest Injury News

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Julian Edelman

Life after Edelman begins this week for the Patriots. According to NFL Media's Gregg Rosenthal, the Patriots' leading receiver is expected to miss 6-8 weeks after undergoing surgery for his broken foot earlier this week. That timetable would leave him in line to return at the end of the regular season or, if the Pats opt to play things conservatively, in time for a possible playoff run.

More precisely, Edelman's injury is a Jones fracture on the fifth metatarsal connecting to the pinky toe, which is the same injury as what Dez Bryant suffered this season. While Pats fans can be heartened that Bryant has returned to Dallas this season, the Cowboys' Pro Bowl receiver hasn't quite appeared his usual explosive self, and the injury itself carries a high risk of re-injury.

The most prudent path would likely be keeping Edelman sidelined until the postseason, particularly if the Patriots earn a first-round berth. A Divisional-round game would be roughly nine weeks removed from the injury, giving Edelman maximum healing time to be close to his normal self. For a team with Super Bowl aspirations, anything less than a close-to-fully-healthy Edelman would be a rough loss.

Patriots Offensive Linemen

Having spackled together a misfit bunch on the offensive line the past two games, New England might finally be getting much-needed reinforcements in the trenches. According to NFL Media's Jeremy Bergman, the Pats saw a trio of welcome faces in Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon and Tre' Jackson return to practice this week.

Vollmer and Cannon's returns are more urgent, given that both Cameron Fleming and Bryan Stork have been playing out of position the past two weeks. Fleming is at least a natural tackle, but if either Vollmer or Cannon returns, expect the second-year pro to return to the right side. Jackson's return could also allow the Pats to rotate along the interior as they did earlier in the season with Shaq Mason, Josh Kline and possibly Stork.

Jamie Collins

New England's most dynamic defensive player has been sidelined the past two games with a virus that left him weak and unable to eat. Bergman noted in the article above that Collins' availability for Monday night will depend on his strength and weight, as he'll need to regain what he lost while being bedridden.

Collins' range was sorely missed last week, and is needed against a Bills running game that likes to operate horizontally. New England's game plan will involve keeping LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams contained between the tackles, and no Patriots defender has the speed to eliminate space on the perimeter quite like Collins.

Kyle Williams

Buffalo's veteran defensive tackle is a key cog on the Bills front seven, but the Patriots won't have to worry about him this week. Williams, who has missed the past four games with a PCL sprain, will miss his fifth consecutive contest against New England, per WGRZ-TV. 

Corbin Bryant has started for Buffalo in his place, but he doesn't provide the same three-down impact Williams has throughout his career. The Bills defensive line underachieved even with Williams in the lineup over the first six weeks, but his absence certainly won't help the unit come any closer to fulfilling its lofty preseason expectations.

Key Matchups

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Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola vs. Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby

Buffalo cornerback tandem is one of the game's more underrated duos, with Gilmore and Darby helping the Bills limit opposing passers to just 6.4 yards per pass attempt (seventh in the NFL). Given the unexpected struggles Buffalo's front seven has faced in rushing the passer, it's a testament to the secondary's depth that the Bills still possess a near-elite pass defense.

In the first meeting, much of New England's offensive game plan was predicated on Julian Edelman's superior route-running ability, as Brady targeted Edelman a whopping 19 times. Amendola and Aaron Dobson (who was the No. 3 receiver in that game with LaFell injured) combined to receive just 10 targets despite Brady attempting 59 passes.

LaFell and Amendola will obviously receive much more work this time around, which could place the onus on Josh McDaniels to scheme them open against Buffalo's corners. Gilmore and Darby would figure to win the majority of isolation matchups, so finding a way to defeat their man-coverage ability is a primary objective for the Pats.

Patriots Front Seven vs. LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams

One area where the Pats have had good fortune is at defensive tackle. After a slow start, first-round rookie Malcom Brown has played well over the past month, while injury-prone rotational players Dominique Easley and Sealver Siliga have managed to stay healthy for the majority of the season.  Those three, along with veteran Alan Branch, have given New England an extremely deep rotation on the interior.

The Patriots figure to use that depth against a run-heavy Bills squad that finally has its top two running backs healthy. McCoy and Williams have combined to miss five games thus far, but both have been among the league's more efficient backs when healthy. The two have combined to average 5.2 yards per carry, while both are top-15 running backs in Football Outsiders' DYAR metric, which measures cumulative opponent-adjusted value.

New England's run defense has recovered after a slow start, having held each of its previous four opponents to 3.5 yards per carry or worse. However, the Bills did shred this defense for 160 rushing yards and two rushing scores in Week 2. With McCoy and Williams once again healthy, Buffalo's ground game will provide a measuring stick for how far the Patriots' front seven has really come against the run.

Malcolm Butler vs. Sammy Watkins

After excelling against one 2014 first-round wide receiver, Malcolm Butler will face another top pick from that same draft class this week in Sammy Watkins. The former fourth-overall pick has experienced an inconsistent second season due to injuries and Buffalo's erratic quarterback play, but Watkins remains Tyrod Taylor's target of choice through the air.

Against the Miami Dolphins two weeks ago, Watkins caught all eight of his targets for 168 yards, accounting for an eye-popping 93 percent of Buffalo's receiving yardage production that day. Though a matchup against Darrelle Revis limited the second-year pro to only 17 receiving yards last week, expect Taylor to once again heavily target Watkins without an All-Pro corner following him around.

Butler did a nice job in the first game against Buffalo; though Watkins did catch a late 24-yard touchdown, that play came with now-released veteran Bradley Fletcher in coverage. Butler came up with the game-sealing interception on the Bills' last-ditch drive, and coming off his strong performance against Odell Beckham Jr., the Patriots' top corner enters this week at the top of his game.

Matchup X-Factors

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Patriots' X-factor of the Week: LeGarrette Blount

New England's bruising back wasn't a factor in the first meeting, toting the ball just twice for four yards in his 2015 debut. However, Buffalo's front seven has since proven much leakier than anyone anticipated at the start of the season, potentially providing an unexpectedly juicy matchup for Blount this week.

Buffalo's run defense has allowed 4.1 yards per rush attempt (16th), but the advanced metrics suggest the Bills have been worse defending opposing ground games. Football Outsiders' DVOA metric pegs Buffalo's run defense 29th, the same ranking the Bills hold in adjusted line yards. Both of those stats factor in opponent adjustments, suggesting the Bills have been mediocre against below-average rushing attacks for most of the season.

With Brady appearing less comfortable in the pocket in recent weeks due to his disintegrating offensive line, it might behoove offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to construct a more Blount-oriented game plan this week.

The Patriots are unlikely to stick to a true 50-50 split between the pass and run as they almost did two weeks ago against Washington. However, with the passing game down so many weapons, now is a good time for Blount to carry a heavier workload after remaining anonymous back in the Week 2 meeting.

Bills' X-factor of the Week: Leodis McKelvin

An outside cornerback for much of his career, McKelvin saw impressive rookie Ronald Darby usurp him when he started the season on short-term injured reserve. However, the 30-year-old veteran has remained an integral part of Buffalo's lineup as a hybrid cornerback and safety, providing the Bills less thump against the run but better coverage on the back end of their defense.

As the Bills search for solutions to the Rob Gronkowski dilemma, McKelvin provides them an element they did not have in the September matchup. Since McKelvin returned to the lineup two weeks ago, Buffalo has conceded a grand total of one catch for six yards to opposing tight ends.

That could be more coincidence than causation, of course, given the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins hardly possess anything as problematic as Gronkowski. Nevertheless, after Gronk accumulated 113 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions in the first meeting, New England's tight end is sure to be the center of attention for McKelvin and the rest of Buffalo's back seven.

Prediction: Patriots 26, Bills 20

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For much of the season, it was feasible to imagine the Patriots simply outgunning any poor foe that stood in their way. With injuries tearing down much of the offense's core over the past month, though, New England's margin for error has gone down significantly, especially if sustaining perfection is the goal.

Buffalo doesn't necessarily present the worst matchup for the Pats. The Bills' surprisingly porous defensive line should allow the Pats to keep Brady upright, while a ground-bound Buffalo offense is simply running into the teeth of New England's improved run defense. If Tyrod Taylor must make enough plays to outgun Brady, it seems highly improbable the Bills will pull off the road upset.

Nevertheless, the Pats had their issues stringing together positive plays against the Giants last week, and a similar effort will again leave them vulnerable. Rex Ryan's squads have always been ready for New England, even if they typically come up short. At the very least, it's difficult to imagine the Patriots blowing out their AFC East adversaries.

For now, though, the Patriots deserve the benefit of the doubt given their familiarity with the Bills, an underrated component they did not possess last week against New York. Constructing a winning game plan shouldn't be nearly as mysterious this week for Bill Belichick, which should keep the Pats unbeaten into their Thanksgiving weekend showdown at Denver.