Michigan vs. Penn State: Complete Game Preview
The No. 14 Michigan Wolverines and Penn State Nittany Lions will square off on Saturday, Nov. 21, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania.
Michigan (8-2, 5-1 Big Ten) must win to potentially set up a do-or-die Big Ten battle against rival Ohio State, which will host Michigan State. The Wolverines also need an Ohio State victory for that to happen, however.
Penn State (7-3, 4-2) will try to spoil Michigan's dream on senior day. Although the Nittany Lions have losses to OSU and Northwestern, they are undefeated at home in 2015.
According to Odds Shark, Michigan is a five-point favorite. ABC will broadcast the conference matchup, which is set for a noon ET kickoff.
Michigan Keys to Victory
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Ride the Hot Hand
Two games ago, Jake Rudock picked apart Rutgers en route to a career-best 337 yards. That mark didn't stand long.
The senior quarterback completed 33 of 46 passes for 440 yards and six touchdowns against Indiana. He had never before thrown more than three scores—and that was just once.
Michigan's running game has continued to struggle since a promising start. Maintaining the run-pass balance is necessary, but the offense ought to go through Rudock.
Clog the Middle
The Wolverines entered Memorial Stadium as the No. 3 rush defense in the nation. In the first quarter alone, Indiana's Jordan Howard topped the average yards Michigan had allowed. He finished with 238 yards.
Why did that happen? Ryan Glasgow was sidelined. It turns out, per MLive's Nick Baumgardner, the defensive tackle is out for the season.
Penn State has a blossoming star at running back in Saquon Barkley, but the Wolverines can deal with the freshman if he is forced to bounce outside. Conversely, if the Nittany Lions can seal the defensive tackles, it'll be another long day for the Michigan defense.
Penn State Keys to Victory
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Third-Down Success
Penn State is the country's second-worst offense on third down. Michigan's defense is the third-best unit. That seems like a notable mismatch, don't you think?
The Nittany Lions have converted 39 of their 138 attempts for a putrid 28.3 percent rate. Against conference opponents, that number dips slightly to 27.5 (22-of-80).
On the other hand, the Wolverines have surrendered 33 conversions in 141 tries (23.4 percent), holding conference foes to a 22.9 percent mark.
Unless Penn State consistently scores 75-yard touchdowns, third-down success is imperative.
Limit the Big Three
Jehu Chesson, Amara Darboh and Jake Butt dominated Indiana and its suspect pass defense. They combined for 25 catches, 398 yards and six touchdowns.
Overall in 2015, the trio has accounted for 61.7 percent of Michigan's receptions, 68.1 of the yards and 13 of the 15 scores.
Penn State's pass defense is ranked No. 2 nationally, but the secondary hasn't faced a unit of this caliber. If the defensive backs ace the test, though, the Nittany Lions have a fantastic chance to spring an upset.
Michigan Players to Watch
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The Running Backs
Although Rudock is the key to Michigan's success, it's not a one-dimensional offense. Despite all the recent troubles, the Wolverines will continue running the ball.
De'Veon Smith has a mediocre 251 yards over his last five appearances. Drake Johnson has logged just 23 carries. Karan Higdon has accomplished little in limited reps, and both Derrick Green and Ty Isaac have become borderline irrelevant on the 2015 team.
Since head coach Jim Harbaugh won't stray from the ground game, Michigan will continue hoping one of the ball-carriers has a productive outing behind a shaky offensive line.
Outside expectations are low, however.
Maurice Hurst Jr., Defensive Tackle
Matt Godin and Tom Strobel had a rough day in Indiana while trying to replicate Glasgow's impact at nose tackle, so Maurice Hurst Jr. should take on a larger role.
Whether the coaches want to use the junior or someone else (like Chris Wormley, perhaps) more often doesn't really matter. Hurst is clearly a better option than Godin or Strobel for the injury-riddled defensive line.
Hurst received the start versus Indiana and responded with seven total tackles. Michigan needs a similarly efficient performance from him against Penn State.
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Penn State Players to Watch
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Christian Hackenberg, Quarterback
The junior gunslinger has the unenviable task of carrying a collection of unimpressive receivers through a battle with two outstanding cornerbacks while being protected by...not much.
Christian Hackenberg must overcome Jourdan Lewis and Jabrill Peppers, who will line up opposite Chris Godwin and DaeSean Hamilton throughout the day. If neither Penn State wideout can create separation, Hackenberg must throw them open without forcing passes, which is quite a delicate balance.
A handful of the 33 sacks allowed are the result of Hackenberg knowing it's better to take a sack than throw an interception. Coverage sacks may be the norm on Saturday because of Michigan's standout defensive backs.
Carl Nassib, Defensive End
One of the 2015 season's breakout stars, Carl Nassib has recorded at least one sack in every single game this year. The senior leads the Football Bowl Subdivision with 15.5 total, earning a great nickname in the process.
"He's got that nickname Crazy Carl because his intensity is unmatched every single play," defensive end Garrett Sickels said, per Audrey Snyder of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Nassib will test Wolverines right tackle Erik Magnuson, who has been solid yet unspectacular throughout the season. The 10-game sack streak has a better-than-good chance to continue on Saturday.
What They're Saying
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Michigan
Rudock hadn't been able to complete a downfield pass until last Saturday's contest against Indiana. Per Angelique S. Chengelis of the Detroit News, the senior was relieved a connection happened.
"You need time to understand how game weeks go," Rudock said. "Summer and fall camp are completely different and also game speed with Jehu and Amara and Jake. It's about time it happened and really excited."
Penn State
Hackenberg is likely to declare for the 2016 NFL draft, so the clash with Michigan could be his final game at Beaver Stadium. Marley Paul of StateCollege.com noted what he's accomplished at Penn State.
"When Hackenberg walks away, he'll be the school's all-time leader in passing yards, attempts, completions and probably touchdowns," Paul wrote. "He won the lone bowl game of his career last season. There may not be much left for him on the collegiate level, or at Penn State at least."
Prediction
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Penn State's rushing attack should be successful early on, but Michigan is more likely to sell out against the run than it did opposite Indiana.
When that happens, the Nittany Lions simply don't have enough pass-catching weapons to atone for an extra player in the box. The offense will need Godwin or Hamilton to make a play in one-on-one situations, and that's easier said than done against Lewis and Peppers.
Now, the Wolverines aren't destined for a blowout victory. Penn State should shut down Smith, Johnson and the running game, forcing Rudock into a playmaking role.
But Rudock isn't the same quarterback he was during the 2015 season opener. His decision-making and underrated scrambling ability will be the difference.
Prediction: Michigan 27, Penn State 17
All recruiting information via 247Sports. Stats from CFBStats.com. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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