Aaron Rodgers, Mike McCarthy Face Unsettling Reality as Title Hopes Begin Fading

Jordy Nelson will miss the entire season. Eddie Lacy and the running game have been completely ineffective. The protection has been questionable, and the defense and kicking have been unreliable throughout this three-game losing streak.

But Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy have always been good enough to rise above shortcomings like these, at least in the regular season, and magic their way to the playoffs. With the strength of a 23-year home win streak over the hapless Detroit Lions on their side, Rodgers didn't play well enough to make it 24.

Despite being soundly beaten by the Denver Broncos with a bye week beforehand to prepare, and then being handled by the Carolina Panthers in Week 9, all was assumed to be OK: Both teams were undefeated at the time, and they boasted two of the NFL's top pass defenses. 

Had Rodgers worked his usual magic, had he finished his final drive with a two-point conversion—heck, if kicker Mason Crosby had made his woebegotten 52-yard field-goal attempt as time expired—Packers fans and national media could still pretend all was well.

If the Pack were 7-2, still tied for the NFC North lead, with three straight division wins presumed to follow, we might not even move them downward in our collective power rankings. Just the tiniest amount of that Aaron Rodgers magic might have convinced us he can still summon as much as he needs on command.

But he didn't, because he couldn't, because he can't—at least, not right now.

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Rodgers does not look like his usual self: His passes are accurate, but they were not placed as precisely as usual and were not thrown with the perfect amount of zip or touch. He's still mobile, but his Zen-like pocket management and always-underrated ability to make plays on the move aren't quite there; he looks much more tentative and less explosive, as if he's playing in running shoes instead of cleats.

Most bizarrely of all, there's a hesitance, a fear in Rodgers' game, something we've never, ever seen before. If there's one defining quality of Rodgers' play, it's his trust in himself to find an open man and make the play—and that trust has always been well-placed.

Over the course of Rodgers' career as a starter, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, he's got a higher touchdown rate than anyone else, the second-lowest interception rate, the highest NFL passer efficiency rating and the highest raw, net and adjusted yards per attempt.

More than anyone, Rodgers has been aggressive in throwing and successful in going downfield. And yet he has made fewer mistakes than anyone but Tom Brady.

There was no sign of that Aaron Rodgers against the Broncos—but of course he had no time and no options. There were flashes of that Aaron Rodgers against the Panthers, but only after the Packers had gone down 27-7.

Mike Roemer/Associated Press

Against the Lions, Rodgers was all checkdowns and dump-offs, needing an astounding 61 pass attempts to pile up his impressive-sounding 333 yards passing; that's a miniscule 5.5 yards per attempt and 9.5 yards per completion. To put that in perspective, Rodgers' career averages are 8.2 yards per attempt and 12.5 yards per completion. That 35-of-61 passing day speaks volumes, too. His 57.4 percent completion rate is well below his career average of 65.7 percent.

Against the NFL's worst scoring defense—which just placed one of its starting cornerbacks, Rashean Mathis, on injured reserve the day before the game—Rodgers settled for underneath passes to tight ends Justin Perillo and Richard Rodgers, tailback James Starks and even receivers Randall Cobb and Jared Abbrederis.

Those five all had between four and six catches against the Lions for between 32 and 58 yards. Even the game's leading receiver, Davante Adams, netted just 79 yards with his 10 catches.

Against the worst defense in football, every Packers pass-catcher played like a No. 2 tight end.

Rodgers, of course, assumes plenty of responsibility for this. The Packers are built around him playing at a Pro Bowl-, if not All-Pro level. The defanged, hesitant Rodgers we saw in Week 10 forced the Packers into a whopping nine punts—the most any Packers team has punted, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, since 2006, when Rodgers stepped in for an injured Brett Favre in the middle of a blowout loss.

"We had some opportunities," Rodgers said after the game, per ESPN.com. "I missed some throws, and we missed some opportunities to convert and put some more points on the board. We needed 19 points to win today. You would expect us at home to score 19."

Yes, you would.

Now what?

Rodgers has to look in the mirror, of course. If his usual effortless-seeming wizardry isn't there, his preparation and attention to detail need to be far better. Aaron Nagler of FanDuel and SI.com summed it up nicely:

Yet, head coach Mike McCarthy needs to take a look in the mirror, too. After an effective opening drive that repeatedly targeted the second level of the Lions defense, Rodgers never seemed to know where to go with the football. Just as against the Broncos and Panthers, McCarthy and offensive coordinator Tom Clements had no ideas, adjustments or answers.

The one thing that's always worked during the McCarthy/Rodgers era is the symbiotic relationship between coach and quarterback. Regardless of the protection, running game, receiver corps and defense, Rodgers and McCarthy's ability to unlock defenses together has put up points and won games.

Now, the Packers face the division-leading Minnesota Vikings (!) in Week 11, followed by the Chicago Bears and the road rematch against the Lions. Four, five, or six straight losses and the Packers could go from being NFC favorites to a bubble team in the span of one awful November. Even if they make it into the postseason, it's hard to imagine this squad doing anything against the Panthers, Arizona Cardinals or other contenders.

Whatever's preventing Rodgers from getting comfortable and throwing downfield, he and McCarthy need to fix it—and they need to do so now.