Despite Loss to Oklahoma, Baylor Still Has Realistic Path to Playoff Berth
Baylor dropped its first game of the season against Oklahoma, falling 44-34 on its home field and crippling its chance of making the College Football Playoff.
But while that chance is definitely wounded, the Bears still have a pulse and can crash the final four if they win out and catch a few breaks.
You wouldn't know that from reading Twitter after the game. Fans and writers penned Baylor's obituary before the final whistle.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
"When Baylor's going to schedule the way they do, they'd best not lose," Chris Vannini of CoachingSearch.com tweeted Saturday. "Nonconference schedule gives them no margin for error."
That criticism is valid, but it underrates the Bears' upcoming schedule. They haven't beaten anyone of substance, but with road games looming at Oklahoma State and TCU, they still have a chance to change that. They still have a chance to reach their ultimate goal.
Here's what needs to happen for them to get there.
Step 1: Win Their Next Three Games
Baylor no longer controls its own fate, but winning remains Step 1. Other results don't matter if the Bears finish 10-2 or worse.
Winning out starts next weekend in Stillwater, where the Bears will play 10-0 Oklahoma State. The Cowboys, however, have not looked infallible. They needed late-game magic to sneak past Texas and Kansas State in the first half of the season, and this past week they barely won at Iowa State, taking their first lead of the game with 3:06 to play.
After that comes a showdown with TCU, last year's Big 12 co-champion and the opponent Baylor circled in big red ink before the season.
The Horned Frogs nearly lost to Kansas—Kansas!—in Week 11, but that was without star quarterback Trevone Boykin, who left in the first half with an ankle injury. His status moving forward is uncertain, although head coach Gary Patterson said he "[thinks] Trevone will be back" next weekend, per Brandon Chatmon of ESPN.com.
Finally, the Bears host Texas, which at this point they can basically mark in the win column. The Longhorns beat the Sooners who just beat Baylor, but they're still a young and flawed team with a 4-6 record. Baylor should dispose of them with ease.
The following steps assume Baylor wins out.
Step 2: Help From Big 12 Rivals
On top of winning its own games, Baylor also needs two dominoes to fall within the conference.
The bad news is that's something it can't control. The good news is that neither scenario appears unrealistic.
Here is one case the Bears must hope for:
- TCU beats Oklahoma
- Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State
Why that combination? Because it guarantees Baylor, should it finish 11-1, would be the only one-loss team in the conference. A head-to-head loss against Oklahoma wouldn't matter if the Sooners, who already lost to Texas, lost their second conference game to TCU.
There are other ways for Baylor to emerge from the Big 12 and make the playoff, but this one is substantially cleaner. It's a mess keeping track of the conference's backloaded schedule, but Baylor fans should keep this scenario circled.
If, however, the Sooners beat TCU next week, it's not as if the Bears are finished. They could also hope for the reverse combination:
- Oklahoma beats TCU
- Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma
In this case, Baylor and Oklahoma State would share the Big 12 throne with 11-1 records, the same way Baylor and TCU did last season. Just like last season, the Bears would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, and just like last season (one assumes), they would finish higher in the CFP rankings.
Unlike last season, that might be enough to get them into the playoffs.
And that's where we get to Step 3.
Step 3: Stanford Wins Out
Stanford lost to Oregon in Week 11, dropping to 8-2 and effectively ending its playoff run; I can hear you asking why the Cardinal matter.
The answer? Because they play Notre Dame. And the Irish, with their two-point loss at Clemson after fumbling at the goal line with a chance to win the game in a hurricane, have a far better quality loss than Baylor, who lost to Oklahoma at home.
Notre Dame losing opens the door for the Big 12 in general. One-loss Baylor would rank ahead of any two-loss Pac-12 champion, and no non-power conference team other than the Irish stands a realistic chance of passing the one-loss Bears.
Barring something loopy from one of the other leagues, Stanford winning out would ensure, most likely, that the SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 each submit to the playoff a one-loss or undefeated champion.
Based on Steps 1 and 2, Baylor would be the one-loss Big 12 champion.
Even after Saturday, this would get it into the playoff.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
