Bowl Predictions 2015: Complete CFP Projections Heading into Week 12
Here's a dirty little secret about the College Football Playoff rankings that are due to be released on Tuesday after Week 11's field-narrowing action: They don't matter.
Yes, the committee will make a story out of at least one team. Whether they inexplicably move a team down, shoot a team up the rankings or decide to leave a recent loser right in the mix, there will be plenty of debate over the new rankings.
But they don't matter.
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The ones that do matter will be the ones that come out on Dec. 6. Those will be the ones that proclaim which four teams will actually get to play for the title. Just ask Ohio State. The Buckeyes won the inaugural College Football Playoff after being included in the final rankings for the first time all season in the final week.
The Top Four of the Dec. 6 rankings are projected here:
| Orange Bowl | No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Oklahoma |
| Cotton Bowl | No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Alabama |
With only four teams getting into the playoff field, some great teams will be left out. Here's a look at where the New Year's Six bowls would shake out in this scenario.
| Fiesta | Notre Dame vs. Michigan State |
| Rose | Iowa vs. Stanford |
| Sugar | Baylor vs. Florida |
| Peach | North Carolina vs. Navy |
Here's a closer look at each of the contenders projected in this field, including who each has left on their schedule and their current S&P rankings, an advanced metric from Football Outsiders.
The Projected Field
No. 1 Ohio State
Record: 10-0
S&P Ranking: 3
Remaining Schedule: Michigan State, Michigan and Big Ten Championship Game
For all the strength-of-schedule talk that goes on in the College Football Playoff conversation, the Buckeyes sure do get a lot of respect. The undefeated Buckeyes were ranked No. 3 in the latest playoff rankings with a questionable schedule at best.
As Brett McMurphy notes, they join North Carolina as the only team in the rankings to not play someone else who is in the rankings.
This isn't to say that Ohio State won't earn their spot in the tournament. The unranked-opponent streak will end on Saturday when it takes on Michigan State.
The Buckeyes are expected to take care of business quite easily at home. According to Odds Shark, they are pegged as a 13-point favorite with Sparty coming to Columbus. Given their 12-point victory in East Lansing last season, there's some history at play here.
After that, the Buckeyes get a shot at another ranked foe in Michigan. This year, the Wolverines are much more equipped to help Ohio State's case for No. 1. They are No. 5 in S&P and are currently ranked 14th in the playoff rankings.
Wins over both Michigan schools and a win in the Big Ten Championship Game would put their resumes against Clemson's. Given the Big Ten outnumbers the ACC 5-3 in the Top 25, it's clear the committee thinks a bit more highly of the Buckeyes' conference.
No. 2 Clemson
Record: 10-0
S&P Ranking: 1
Remaining Schedule: Wake Forest, South Carolina and ACC Championship Game
There's a bit of a good news-bad news dynamic with Clemson until the final rankings are released.
The good news is that they've made their case as the No. 1 team in the country. Advanced metrics like the S&P love them. They've made it through the most difficult parts of their schedule. An undefeated finish gets them into the tournament.
As ESPN Stats & Info notes, they are far and away the most likely team to make it through the season unscathed now:
The bad news is there isn't much they can do to improve their stock. Recency bias is real, and Clemson will need to dominate to keep their current spot atop the college football mountain.
Ultimately, the seeding doesn't matter. Provided Clemson wins out, the Tigers have proved that they are one of the top four teams in the nation and deserve to be in the playoff. They'll get a chance to prove they are the best on that stage.
No. 3 Alabama
Record: 9-1
S&P Ranking: 2
Remaining Schedule: Charleston Southern, Auburn and SEC Championship Game (Florida)
If it feels like a long time ago that the Crimson Tide lost a shootout to Ole Miss, it's because it was. That matchup took place on September 20, and as one might expect, Nick Saban's defense has since adjusted.
As ESPN Stats & Info illustrates, since Chad Kelly torched the Tide secondary for 341 yards and three touchdowns, playing against Bama has been a nightmare for quarterbacks:
Quarterbacks aren't the only ones struggling to find answers against Alabama. The Tide are giving up just 2.5 yards per carry right now. Saban credits a deep, talented defensive line for the team's success.
“Our defensive front is the strength of our team,” Saban said, according to Dan Wolken of USA Today. “We have a lot of guys who are big and physical, and they can run. And we have eight, nine who can play. With big guys when the tank hits empty, it usually stays that way. And have enough diversity in our players up front that whether we’re playing a running team or a passing team they can adapt.”
It isn't just the defense that has it figured out, though. The offense is led by Derrick Henry—who may or may not have been created by the U.S. Department of Defense in a lab somewhere—and has back-to-back 30-plus-point performances against ranked teams.
Thirty points might not seem like a lot in the era of high-flying offenses. But considering the fact that no team has scored 23 points on Alabama since its loss to Ole Miss, that might as well be like most teams scoring 50.
With Florida scoring a combined 35 points in the last two weeks against Vanderbilt and South Carolina, it's looking more and more likely that Bama will beat the Gators to earn another berth in the College Football Playoff.
No. 4 Oklahoma
Record: 9-1
S&P Ranking: 4
Remaining Schedule: TCU and Oklahoma State
Oklahoma's best friend has to be the 2014 Ohio State Buckeyes. Just like last year's national champions, the Sooners have an embarrassing loss on their record (a 24-17 loss to Texas at a neutral site).
Fortunately for the Sooners, they also have a similar home stretch that gives them the opportunity to skyrocket up the polls. Starting with a 10-point win over Baylor, Oklahoma gets a shot at the other top four teams in its conference in consecutive weeks.
FiveThirtyEight is already projecting Oklahoma to jump one-loss Notre Dame to get into the playoff:
The obvious retort for Notre Dame is that its only loss came to the current No. 1 team in the country—Clemson—by a paltry two points.
However, there's already precedent for the committee to take the team that's been more impressive last year. The committee shunned a one-loss TCU whose only loss was to a top-10 team in Baylor by three points on the road in favor of an Ohio State that was fresh off a 59-0 victory in the Big Ten Championship Game.
With no conference-championship game to gain an extra opportunity over the Sooners, the Irish might be on the outside looking in as Oklahoma streaks its way into the playoff.
Considering the committee is still in its infancy, it's difficult to gauge what kind of criterion will be used to determine who the top four teams are. The only thing that's guaranteed is that when the rankings that count come out, there will be some people who aren't happy.
Then furious debate will likely be No. 1 in the country.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
