College Football Playoff 2015: Predicting NCAA Final Four After Week 11 Results
It was a crazy week in college football, with a number of viable contenders going down.
Baylor's College Football Playoff hopes suffered a potentially critical blow with a loss to Oklahoma, while the Pac-12 is all but eliminated due to Stanford's upset loss at the hands of Oregon.
Despite the shake-up, however, the top four is likely to remain unchanged—at least for this week.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Here's a look at the projected playoff teams and a breakdown of their playoff odds and those of the closest competitors.
| Dec. 31 | Cotton Bowl/CFP Semifinal | No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Notre Dame |
| Dec. 31 | Orange Bowl/CFP Semifinal | No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Ohio State |
Projected Playoff Teams
1. Clemson
Clemson struggled to put away Syracuse on Saturday, winning a somewhat sloppy 37-27 game on the road.
Despite the less-than-dominant performance, it's unlikely Clemson relinquishes its No. 1 spot, especially with a one-loss team hovering behind it at No. 2.
The most significant development from the weekend for Clemson was the rash of injuries suffered. According to Dan Hope of OrangeandWhite.com, three key starters suffered injuries:
"Having won, big question coming out of this game for #Clemson: injuries. Mackensie Alexander, Wayne Gallman, Mitch Hyatt all key players.
— Dan Hope (@Dan_Hope) November 15, 2015"
The most notable of that group is starting running back Wayne Gallman, who tallied 66 yards on just 15 carries before being removed from the game. According to Clemson's student newspaper, the Tiger, Gallman was seen icing his shoulder after he was taken out.
Gallman has been crucial to Clemson's success this season, rushing for over 100 yards six times, including in victories over Notre Dame and Florida State.
Fortunately for the Tigers, they have two relatively easy games against struggling Wake Forest and South Carolina to get healthy before the ACC Championship Game.
2. Alabama
It would be difficult to imagine a scenario in which Alabama did more to boost its playoff resume over the past two weeks than what the Crimson Tide accomplished against LSU and Mississippi State.
Nick Saban's squad proved to be the far superior and more physical team Saturday, recording its highest sack total of the Saban era, according to Creg Stephenson of AL.com:
"Alabama last had 9 sacks vs. Vanderbilt in 1998.
— Creg Stephenson (@CregStephenson) November 14, 2015"
Alabama technically hasn't clinched the SEC West yet, but it can do so with a victory over unranked Auburn in two weeks.
Given the Tide's resume and their current placement in the rankings, it should be safe to assume they control their own destiny for a playoff berth.
3. Ohio State
With J.T. Barrett back from suspension, Ohio State cruised to an easy road victory over Illinois on Saturday afternoon.
While it wasn't a resume-boosting victory, CFP committee chairman Jeff Long and the playoff committee made it clear last week that the Buckeyes are considered a playoff team based on their talent:
"Jeff Long on Ohio State: Weak sked, but says, "We think they have incredible talent. We think that's a team that hasn't played its best yet"
— Dave Briggs (@DBriggsBlade) November 11, 2015"
With the Buckeyes ranked third despite not having played a single ranked opponent, they should cruise into the playoff if they can run the table.
Ohio State's resume can only get stronger from here on out with games against Michigan State, Michigan and potentially the Big Ten title game against Iowa.
4. Notre Dame
According to Chuck Carlton of the Dallas Morning News, Long stated Notre Dame was "solidly in No. 4 with the committee" a week ago. While that statement likely sounded great to Irish fans, it left everyone wondering how solid the committee's opinion was and if it was solid enough to keep the Irish ahead of a potentially undefeated Big 12 champion.
Fortunately for the Irish, Baylor's loss to Oklahoma eliminated one of their biggest threats. Now, only Oklahoma State remains undefeated in the Big 12.
If the Cowboys can knock off Baylor and Oklahoma in the next two weeks, they would be a viable threat to the Irish. But if Oklahoma State slips up, the Irish should be the heavy favorite to occupy the No. 4 position if they can run the table.
Next Up: Iowa, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
Iowa's position at No. 5 in last week's rankings means the Hawkeyes almost certainly control their own destiny to advance to the playoff.
The committee clearly values the Big Ten's strength of schedule and will select an undefeated champion from the conference—especially if the Hawkeyes have to go through Ohio State to get there.
Either Oklahoma State or Oklahoma will be eliminated when the two teams face off on November 28.
The Cowboys are definitely the Big 12's best hope given their undefeated record, but a one-loss Oklahoma with wins over Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State would certainly generate interesting debate within the room for the committee.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
