Why LSU Is Far from a Lock to Run the Table

The world wondered where LSU would tumble in the College Football Playoff rankings after falling 30-16 last weekend to Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

It didn't fall far.

The Tigers chimed in at the ninth spot in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings, which leads Tigers head coach Les Miles to believe that his team still has a shot to make the four-team tournament.

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"Our team is there," he said. "We recognize that we have put ourselves in a really good position. All we have to do is hold point."

Holding point, though, is easier said than done. The Tigers have a home game in the always-weird "Battle for the Golden Boot" with Arkansas this weekend, travel to Ole Miss following the Rebels' bye week and close by facing former defensive coordinator John Chavis and the Texas A&M Aggies in Baton Rouge.

Whether you think LSU still has legitimate College Football Playoff hopes or not (I don't, because conference titles matter to the committee), this LSU team is far from a lock to run the table and even become a factor in the final top four.

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It's easy to say that this year's LSU team is different than last year's, thanks to the presence of superstar running back Leonard Fournette atop the depth chart for a full season, a quarterback in Brandon Harris who hasn't made mistakes and a 7-1 record that indicates tremendous progress from last season's 8-5 debacle.

Don't be fooled by that, though, because this LSU team isn't much different than last year's group.

Stat Category	2014	2015
Rushing Offense	4th	1st
Passing Offense	14th	14th
Opp. 3rd Down Conversions	5th	8th
Opp. Red Zone TD %	5th	14th
Tackles for Loss Per Game	9th	8th

It's solid on the ground, has a good offensive line, struggles through the air and is inconsistent on defense.

The Tigers as a team are actually worse through the air this year than last. As a team, they put up 162.9 yards per game through the air last year, as opposed to the 153.3 per game in 2015. As my former colleague Russ Mitchell over at CFN pointed out on Twitter, the passing attack leaves a lot to be desired:

While Harris has tossed 10 touchdowns and only one pick, he's not a difference-maker at quarterback. Being a game manager is job No. 1, but when LSU is forced to go to Plan B—like last week—or is forced into a shootout, can he really keep up?

The latter might happen this weekend, because lost in the hysteria of Arkansas' miraculous 4th-and-25 conversion in overtime and 53-52 overtime win over Ole Miss is the fact that Razorback quarterback Brandon Allen has been dealing.

The senior has thrown 21 touchdowns, just five picks and could do no wrong last time out when he tossed six touchdown passes and scored the game-winning two-point conversion on the ground.

"It's something that's been growing in him and is so much of a blessing to see it finally come through and have so many people eat a little crow," head coach Bret Bielema said.

If Allen stays hot against an LSU secondary that has been hit-or-miss at times this year, it might force Harris to keep up.

SEC Network analyst and former Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy doesn't think Harris can hang (via Bo Mattingly of Sports Talk With Bo):

The lack of threat is something that the Arkansas defense has seen on film, according to Eric Bolin of the Arkansas News Bureau:

Is LSU really worthy of being the ninth-best team in the country?

On paper, yes, because that's the neighborhood where one-loss teams in the SEC should be in November.

These are "paper Tigers," though.

The biggest reason LSU has enjoyed success this year isn't because of Fournette, it's because it has caught every SEC opponent up to the Alabama game at the most opportunistic time.

Mississippi State didn't have an offensive identity when the two met in Week 2, Auburn was a disaster in Week 3, South Carolina was in the midst of coaching turmoil and had to move the Oct. 10th game to Baton Rouge due to flooding in Columbia and Florida had just suspended starting quarterback Will Grier for violating the NCAA's policy on performance-enhancing drugs the week of the meeting between the two teams in Baton Rouge.

Instead of talk of perhaps running the table, getting a little luck from around the country and elbowing its way back into the playoff picture, LSU should worry about simply finding an identity outside of Fournette. 

While the superstar sophomore running back has pushed that issue to the back burner for two months of the season, the third won't be as successful. 

Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics are courtesy of cfbstats.com.

Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report, as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter, @BarrettSallee.