Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets: What's the Game Plan for New York?

Ready or not, Rex Ryan's return to MetLife Stadium is upon us. 

Thursday night, the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills will square off with sole possession of second place in the AFC East on the line. But it's not just that that both teams are fighting for. While this game is being played in November, it has major December and January playoff implications. 

There are two wildcard spots, both the Jets and Bills are up for them. A victory for Buffalo evens its record with New York. A win for the Jets puts the team two-up on the Bills in the win column. 

So, what's going to happen when the two teams square off? And what do the Jets need to do to get a victory? Here's the game plan for New York:

Offensive Game Plan

It's honestly pretty hard to find the most embarrassing moment, or moments, from a season that finished 4-12. To tell you the truth, in the Jets 2014 campaign, even the victories were ugly. 

But arguably the lowest of the lowliest moments for the Jets last year were the team's two beat-downs at the hands of the Buffalo Bills. In every facet of those games, New York was dominated. But the one area the Jets had the most trouble with was the Bills front four. And Thursday night, three of those four that gave New York's offensive line fits will be coming full-force from the opening whistle, until the final. 

While Kyle Williams won't play due to injury, Marcell Dareus, Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes will be tasked with making Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick's life miserable, much like they did to Michael Vick and Geno Smith in 2014. 

In the Jets two games against the Bills, the team's offensive line allowed 10 quarterback sacks, six quarterback hits and 25 quarterback hurries. 

"Shoot, you look at them and they're unbelievable," Jets center Nick Mangold said. "They've got the speed, the power. [Dareus] is probably one of the best defensive tackles in the league. ... You look at Mario Williams, the freak he is, Jerry Hughes. They're loaded up front. It's going to be a big test for us."

Player Name	Position	Total Sacks
Mario Williams	DE	27.5
Marcell Dareus	DT	17.5
Kyle Williams (OUT Thursday)	DT	16
Jerry Hughes	DE	19.5

If the Jets can't slow Buffalo's front, the 80,000 set to pack MetLife Stadium may be hitting the exits at the halftime break. So, how can the team do that? Well, it's a bit more complicated than simply pointing out who blocks who on each play. 

Thursday night, the Jets are going to have to A- Establish a run game, B- Get the ball out of Fitzpatrick's hand quick, and C- Work in screen passes.

When facing any elite-level, pass-rushing team, the best way to calm said rush is to make it so that rush never gets a chance to attack the quarterback. See, when a defense knows an offense is going to throw the ball, they can pin their ears back, then focus on firing off the line of scrimmage and getting after the quarterback. Defensive ends, defensive tackles, even blitzing linebackers make it their sole purpose to get up the field. 

If the Jets can establish a running game, that slows that rush. Suddenly, a defense can't just focus on getting up the field, they have to play assignment football. All on that front need to hesitate just a second to see if the run is coming, then either get down the line to stop the run, or change their direction and get after the quarterback. 

Another way to slow that rush is to simply get the ball out of Fitzpatrick's hands quicker than that defensive line can get there. That math makes sense. If it takes 3.5 seconds for Dareus to get to Fitzpatrick, and Fitzpatrick gets the ball out of his hands in 2.5 seconds, well, Dareus isn't going to be much of a factor. Slants, skinny-posts, ins, swing passes--look for all of them to be a focal point of the Jets offense Thursday night. 

Finally, at some point, the Jets are going to need to use the Bills aggressiveness against them, and the best way to do that is with screens. If Williams and Hughes want to fire off the ball on second-and-eight, let them. Right as one comes flying around the left side, sneak running back Chris Ivory to that same spot, and have Fitzpatrick float the ball over his head. Again, it's all about slowing the rush. After getting beat once or twice for long gains off screens, those rushers will slow for just a second to ensure a back isn't leaking out of the backfield before heading after Fitzpatrick.

And that slight hesitation is additional time for Fitzpatrick to scan the field.

Defensive Game Plan

It was one of the less publicized signings the Bills made this past offseason. In fact, the acquisition of quarterback Matt Cassel via trade from the Minnesota Vikings drew a bit more attention than the free-agent signing of little-known Tyrod Taylor. 

A camp body was Taylor. Someone who would sporadically see the field in specially designed packages to take advantage of his ability to run. But a legitimate candidate to beat out Cassell and former first-round pick E.J. Manuel for the No. 1 quarterback spot? That, that he was not. 

Yet while that was the most common public perception, Rex Ryan had other plans.

"I tried to get him a few years ago," Ryan said on a conference call with New York media. 

Since winning the Bills wide-open quarterback job, Taylor has been not only a pleasant surprise for Buffalo, but also one of the better stories in the NFL. A 2011 sixth-round pick by the Baltimore Ravens, Taylor, who had attempted just 35 passes prior to joining the Bills, has been lights-out in his first season as a starting quarterback. 

Just how good has he been? Well, the numbers tell that story. 

In six games, Taylor has completed an incredible 71.8 percent of his passes and has thrown for 1,278 yards with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has a quarterback rating of 108.8, and has rushed for an additional 231 yards and two scores on the ground. 

Name	Completion Percentage	Passer Rating
Tyrod Taylor (BUF)	71.8	108.8
Aaron Rodgers (GB)	64.7	108.2
Andrew Luck (IND)	55.3	74.9
Drew Brees (NO)	69.6	102.8
Tom Brady (NE)	68.6	113.5
Philip Rivers (SD)	69.0	100.7

But what may be the most impressive aspect of Taylor's game is how well he's using his feet to complement his arm. See, while Taylor is fast and has the ability to take off and run on any play, he uses his legs to extend plays while never taking his eyes away from down the field. He also doesn't force the issue. Whatever the defense gives him, he takes. Nothing more, nothing less. 

If Taylor's first read isn't there, he goes to his second. If his second read isn't there, he goes to this third. If his third isn't there, he runs. He doesn't try to make an apple into an orange, and has absolutely no problem checking the ball down. 

Of the 149 passes Taylor has attempted this year, per Pro Football Focus, 63 percent have been thrown within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. To put that number in perspective, Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is known primarily as a check-down machine, has thrown just 52 percent of his passes within 10 yards of the line.

When a defense originally takes the field focused on shutting down the deep ball, Taylor remains patient. He checks it down over, and over, and over again until those safeties creep into the box and cornerbacks begin to sit on the short route. Once that happens, Taylor and the Bills offense will throw in a double-move and take their shots down the field. 

On passes of 20 yards or more, Taylor is of 11-of-25 for 435 yards and has thrown six touchdowns to just two interceptions. 

While the Jets will certainly need to contain a Bills rushing attack that is averaging 141.6 yards per game, good for second-best in the NFL, Taylor is the 'X-Factor' and what makes everything click. When he's on the field, the Bills are a better team, as is evident by their 4-2 record in games he's started. 

This is a game where New York is going to need to be disciplined, it's imperative. If cornerbacks start sitting on short routes, Taylor will notice and then look to strike down the field. If the Jets defense starts coming off their assignments to attack Taylor when he begins to move in the pocket, Taylor will throw to the area that defender vacated. 

This will be a game where assignment football, technique and discipline are as important as sacks, interceptions and forced fumbles. If the Jets begin to slack on any of the aforementioned three, it could be a long, long four quarters Thursday night.

Key Matchups and Players

Jets Guard Brian Winters vs. Bills Defensive Line

On Monday, Jets starting offensive guard Willie Colon was limited in practice after missing Sunday's victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. It wasn't surprising, as Colon had been nursing a knee injury all year. 

On Tuesday, Colon never made it out to practice as his knee was too sore. A little red flag, but nothing too severe. After all, Colon still had another two days before the Jets matchup with Buffalo. 

But on Wednesday, the Jets announced that Colon had been placed on the injured reserve. The 10-year vet's season was over, and Brian Winters' was just beginning. 

With Colon done, Winters slides in as the Jets new starting right guard. His first test? Quite the daunting one. The former third-round pick should see an awful lot of Marcell Dareus, a player regarded as one of the best interior defensive linemen in the NFL. Just a season ago, Dareus set a career-high with 10 sacks. 

Since being selected by the Jets in the 2013 draft, Winters has had a bit of an up-and-down career. He struggled in his 12 starts as a rookie, and struggled more in his six starts in 2014 before suffering a season-ending injury. But this year, despite being beat out by Colon for the starting guard spot in training camp, Winters has shown signs of improvement. 

Winters took a step up in both his run and pass blocking, and was playing better technically than he had previously in his career. He had an impressive showing in the Jets game earlier this year against the Miami Dolphins when he faced Ndamukong Suh. 

Will that continue? Well, if Winters can earn a passing grade against Dareus, after earning one against Suh, it will certainly go a far way in instilling faith in the coaching staff. 

Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis vs. Bills Receiver Sammy Watkins

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

In today's NFL, it seems as if every single team has a legitimate, top-flight No. 1 receiver. With the league gearing towards pass-happy instead of run-heavy, that's probably for the best. 

But with so many elite wideouts, the need for a cornerback to match up against said receivers becomes a bit more. For the Jets, that need is filled with future Hall of Famer Darrelle Revis. 

It's been mentioned before, but Revis hasn't exactly taken a step back in his ninth NFL season. In fact, he may be better than he's been in quite some time. Per PFF, quarterbacks are completing just 46.5 percent of the passes thrown his way and have a quarterback rating of 44.0 when testing him. Revis has allowed one touchdown, intercepted three passes and batted down four. 

Revis has already shut down or limited the likes of Colts wideout T.Y. Hilton, the Eagles Jordan Matthews, the Redskins Pierre Garćon and the Raiders Amari Cooper. Next up? Bills second-year pro Sammy Watkins. 

While limited a bit by injuries this season, Watkins is finally starting to get healthy. He's caught just 25 passes for 315 yards and three touchdowns this year, but last week against the Dolphins, Watkins grabbed eight passes for 168 yards and a score. He looked, far and away, the best he has all season. 

In 2014, Watkins faced Revis twice during the cornerback's only year with the New England Patriots. In those games, Watkins caught three passes for 70 yards when over on "Revis Island," highlighted by a 43-yard catch in their second meeting. 

Thursday's game will be the third battle between one of the best cornerbacks the NFL has ever seen, and one of the league's up-and-coming stars. Is this the year Watkins gets an edge?

With a Jets Win

It will be big, not only for the fact it improves the team's record to 6-3, but because it knocks the Bills back a spot. With the Patriots seemingly running away with the AFC East (again), the Jets and Bills are fighting with many other AFC squads for two wildcard spots. Every game counts, and with Buffalo just a game back of the Jets right now, getting a full two-game lead in the win column would be huge. 

With a Jets Loss

John Wawrow/Associated Press

Things get...interesting. Suddenly, the Jets would be tied with Buffalo for second place in the AFC East, and the Miami Dolphins just a game back. A loss to the Bills wouldn't be season-ending, but it would certainly add a bit more meaning to the Jets next three games against the Houston Texans, Dolphins and New York Giants. 

Prediction

The Jets are banged up. Actually, that's an understatement. When New York takes the field Thursday night, it will likely be without its starting cornerback (Antonio Cromartie), starting guard (Willie Colon), kicker (Nick Folk), second-string running back (Bilal Powell), safety (Calvin Pryor) and backup safety (Dion Bailey). 

Oh, and that's not including bum-thumbed Fitzpatrick and the walking-wounded of receivers Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall, center Nick Mangold, cornerback Buster Skrine and more. Truthfully, the Jets injury report may feature more names than their 53-man roster. 

When you couple that, with the fact this game's being played on a short week and it's the first time Rex Ryan returns to MetLife Stadium? Well, it's not a recipe for success for the Jets. 

The Jets have survived the last few weeks in-spite of their injuries, but this Thursday will be the game it catches up to them. Rex will have the Bills flying around and emotionally super-charged. That's not saying the Jets won't match the intensity, but those players taking the field are just are too banged up. 

It'll be close, but look for the Bills to pull away down the stretch. A turnover in the fourth quarter will seal a Buffalo victory. 

Bills 28, Jets 20

Connor Hughes is the New York Jets beat writer for the Journal Inquirer and Scout.com. All quotes, practice observations and advanced stats referenced are gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted.

Connor can be reached on Twitter (@Connor_J_Hughes) or via email ([e-mail])