NCAA Football Rankings 2015: Predicting the AP Top 25 After Week 11
The name of the game at this point in the season is survive and advance.
For several of the blockbuster teams in the Associated Press Top 25, that mission was accomplished in Week 11. The No. 1 team in the country held off a comeback effort on the road, while No. 5 had to rally from behind to put away a pesky conference opponent away from home.
But while some put together impressive victories Saturday, others felt the brunt of November's tough tests. Half of the AP Top 10 suffered defeat, including a handful of hopefuls for the second College Football Playoff.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Here is this week's projection of Sunday's AP Top 25—one of the tougher tasks of the season, considering all the shakeups that happened among the ranked teams.
As always, I've included several spotlight risers and fallers, but this week's action made sure I featured more than the traditional sets of three for both categories. Here's a look at what the poll could turn out to be Sunday afternoon, along with a dozen highlighted teams:
| 1. Clemson | 1 | 10-0 | Won 37-27 at Syracuse |
| 2. Ohio State | 2 | 10-0 | Won 28-3 at Illinois |
| 3. Alabama | 3 | 9-1 | Won 31-6 at No. 20 Mississippi State |
| 4. Notre Dame | 6 | 9-1 | Won 28-7 vs. Wake Forest |
| 5. Oklahoma State | 5 | 10-0 | Won 35-31 at Iowa State |
| 6. Iowa | 8 | 10-0 | Won 40-35 vs. Minnesota |
| 7. Oklahoma | 12 | 9-1 | Won 44-34 at No. 4 Baylor |
| 8. Florida | 11 | 9-1 | Won 24-14 at South Carolina |
| 9. Baylor | 4 | 8-1 | Lost 44-34 vs. No. 12 Oklahoma |
| 10. TCU | 13 | 9-1 | Won 23-17 vs. Kansas |
| 11. Michigan State | 14 | 9-1 | Won 24-7 vs. Maryland |
| 12. Houston | 16 | 10-0 | Won 35-34 vs. No. 25 Memphis |
| 13. North Carolina | 17 | 9-1 | Won 59-21 vs. Miami |
| 14. Stanford | 7 | 8-2 | Lost 38-36 vs. Oregon |
| 15. Utah | 10 | 8-2 | Lost 37-30 at Arizona (2OT) |
| 16. Michigan | 15 | 8-2 | Won 48-41 at Indiana (2OT) |
| 17. Florida State | 19 | 8-2 | Won 34-17 vs. NC State |
| 18. LSU | 9 | 7-2 | Lost 31-14 vs. Arkansas |
| 19. Navy | 22 | 8-1 | Won 55-14 vs. SMU |
| 20. Wisconsin | 23 | 8-2 | BYE WEEK |
| 21. Northwestern | 24 | 8-2 | Won 21-14 vs. Purdue |
| 22. Washington State | NR | 7-3 | Won 31-27 at No. 18 UCLA |
| 23. Oregon | NR | 7-3 | Won 38-36 at No. 7 Stanford |
| 24. USC | NR | 7-3 | Won 27-24 at Colorado |
| 25. Ole Miss | NR | 7-3 | BYE WEEK |
Moving up
Oklahoma
Oklahoma is the latest team to jump headfirst into the playoff picture, as the Sooners went to Waco and knocked off previously undefeated Baylor by a score of 44-34.
It was a complete road win for Oklahoma, which forced three turnovers from the high-flying Baylor offense and held it to a season-low 416 yards. Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield had a masterful performance, scoring four all-purpose touchdowns and registering 346 yards of total offense.
"[Oklahoma] looked balanced and deadly," Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer wrote. "The selection committee, having publicly hoped for Big 12 clarity this week, finally got some. And now, having distanced itself from its own Virginia Tech-esque gaffe, Oklahoma is now a contender."
Oklahoma's impressive, two-score win over Baylor should cause the Sooners to make a good-sized jump in Sunday's AP poll. I've slotted them just behind undefeated Oklahoma State and Iowa at No. 7 after this signature victory.
Houston and North Carolina
Houston's undefeated run looked to be in major trouble against a rebound-minded Memphis team Saturday evening. But the Cougars rallied from a 20-point fourth-quarter deficit—even without starting quarterback Greg Ward Jr., who was injured after a rough start—to knock off the Tigers, 35-34.
Backup signal-caller Kyle Postma was the star of the comeback, leading the Cougars to touchdowns on five of their final seven drives. Now the only undefeated team in the state of Texas, Houston is 10-0 and two weeks away from a potential winner-take-all AAC West matchup against red-hot Navy.
The other team making a four-spot jump this week is North Carolina, which ripped apart Miami by a score of 59-21 in Chapel Hill. Both sides of the ball are hitting perfect stride at this point for the Tar Heels, who have made a dramatic defensive turnaround with first-year coordinator Gene Chizik.
UNC's opening-night loss to South Carolina will be tied with Oklahoma's slip-up to Texas as the ultimate "But How?" defeats of the 2015 season. But the Tar Heels have won nine straight games, with the last two coming in huge blowout fashion.
The four newcomers
With four teams near the bottom of the Top 25 taking tough losses this weekend—UCLA, Mississippi State, Temple and Memphis—it's time for a fresh transfusion of new blood into the poll.
The newcomers have a decidedly Pac-12 flair to them, and Washington State leads the way after its wild 31-27 win at a ranked UCLA team. As Matt Hinton noted on Twitter, the Cougars have lost only two games by a combined eight points since their abysmal loss to FCS foe Portland State.
Washington State goes one spot ahead of Oregon, which looks destined to return to the Top 25 after notching its fourth straight win, a road victory at playoff hopeful Stanford. The Ducks had the more impressive win this week and perhaps a better overall resume than the Cougars, but remember that Wazzu beat Oregon in Autzen Stadium earlier this year.
The next two teams, USC and Ole Miss, might be surprises at the bottom of the poll. However, USC was running away with the additional votes category heading into Week 11, and idle Ole Miss was right behind a BYU team that lost to Missouri. The Trojans' comeback win over Colorado should be enough to slide them into the poll with the Rebels.
Moving down
Baylor
Baylor's first shot against a high-caliber opponent this season didn't go as planned, as Oklahoma avenged back-to-back blowouts in the series with a 10-point win in Waco. Now the Bears must regroup and stay alive in the Big 12 race with road wins over Oklahoma State and TCU.
"The good thing is we control our own destiny," Baylor head coach Art Briles said, per Jordan Mason of the Killeen Daily Herald. "Oklahoma has a Big 12 loss already. If we finish it outright, there could be a couple of us banging around with one loss, and you never know what will happen."
In terms of Top-25 standing, though, Baylor might take an extra drop or two heading into Week 12. The Bears' abysmal strength of schedule was already costing them in the College Football Playoff rankings, and the AP voters may be swayed the same way.
While Florida's road loss to LSU doesn't look nearly as impressive as it used to, the Gators have a much stronger body of work and are on a three-game winning streak. I predict the Bears will fall just behind the Gators in this week's Top 10.
Stanford, Utah and LSU
Three Top 10 teams that already had one loss fell this weekend, and they each will have their own unique paths down the polls.
Stanford's tight loss against Oregon doesn't look terrible, especially considering the way the Ducks have looked in recent weeks. However, the Cardinal probably can't stay higher than an undefeated Houston team or a one-loss, on-fire North Carolina team.
Right behind them is Utah, which went into Arizona and left with a rough double-overtime loss to a Rich Rodriguez squad that had been in serious trouble these last few weeks. A five-spot drop compared to Stanford's seven-place one might not make much sense at face value, but the Utes shouldn't fall farther than a Michigan team it already beat, right? (Don't mess this up, pollsters.)
Finally, LSU is in a world of trouble. After getting smacked around by Alabama last week in Tuscaloosa, it let Arkansas basically do the same thing—in Death Valley—on Saturday night. LSU's offense is in bad shape right now, and other two-loss teams, such as Michigan and Florida State, should have more juice right now in the polls.
Michigan
Michigan has taken rival Michigan State's job of playing with fire recently. Two weeks after escaping with a road win at Minnesota, the Wolverines needed a last-second score to force overtime with an Indiana team that has now lost six straight games.
Jim Harbaugh's team, behind an excellent performance by Jake Rudock and several outstanding receivers, had enough to pull off a 48-41 double-OT victory over the Hoosiers. However, things didn't look pretty, especially for a defense that was once playing better than anyone else in the country.
"Indiana rushed for 99 yards in the first quarter, which was 18 yards more than Michigan had given up on average per game this season," Jesse Temple of ESPN.com wrote. "Michigan also hadn't surrendered more than 144 yards rushing in any game this season. The Hoosiers reached that mark by halftime and finished with 307 yards on the ground."
Of course, a win is more important than mere poll position, the Wolverines still have a potential winner-takes-the-division matchup with rival Ohio State looming in the next two weeks. But their performance Saturday wasn't worthy of any moves up, and Houston and UNC's performances could even push them down a spot.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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