The 9 College Football Games That Could Spoil College Football Playoff Race
In one week, Oklahoma State went from Big 12 dark horse to College Football Playoff hopeful. That's how quickly things can change in college football. With four weeks left in the season, the playoff race is as volatile as ever. Like that, postseason hopes can be dashed.
With that in mind, it's time to look at possible spoiler games for the playoff race over the next few weeks.
Identifying a spoiler game isn't as clear-cut as you'd think. If Clemson loses to Syracuse on Saturday, that's obviously a crippling blow to the Tigers. The same thing goes for Ohio State against Illinois or Notre Dame against Boston College.
Conversely, games like Ohio State-Michigan State, Stanford-Notre Dame and Baylor-Oklahoma State are expected to have playoff implications. There's nothing to spoil.
Rather, the following slides contain games that teams in the playoff hunt either should win but might not or toss-up games in which one of the teams is not in the immediate playoff conversation. As part of the selection process, conference championship games have been eliminated since not all matchups are set yet.
No. 2 Alabama at No. 17 Mississippi State
1 of 9
Saturday, Nov. 14
Now that Alabama is in control of the SEC West, its path to the playoff is clear. That's not to say the remaining schedule is without challenges, but Alabama's motto is "win and you're in." That's as good a place to be as any.
So naturally, losing to Mississippi State one week later would foul up all kinds of things. The Bulldogs are the Tide's best competition remaining in the regular season. While the Iron Bowl against Auburn is always important—and the Tigers are quietly above .500—Alabama has shown the ability to take care of lesser Auburn teams before.
If nothing else, Mississippi State's Dak Prescott is the best quarterback Alabama will face this season. The Tide's pass defense has improved greatly over the past couple of years, but it's still the "weakness" of this team compared to the run defense. The combination of Prescott and receiver De'Runnya Wilson could be lethal.
If Alabama loses, LSU would jump back into first place in the West assuming it beats Arkansas. However, speaking of the Tigers...
Arkansas at No. 9 LSU
2 of 9
Saturday, Nov. 14
LSU got embarrassed by Alabama in Week 10, and the upcoming game at home against Arkansas could do one of two things. Either the Tigers could suffer a hangover loss against a suddenly piping-hot Hogs team that's scored an average of 56.7 points in the last three games. Or LSU could rebound and at least stay within striking distance of the Tide.
Obviously, the key for LSU is getting running back Leonard Fournette going again. And no team in the SEC has allowed more rushing touchdowns than the Razorbacks (21). That matchup favors the Tigers on paper, but Arkansas just won a game by converting a 4th-and-25 on a lateral, so who really knows anymore?
Where things get interesting is if Alabama and LSU lose in the same weekend. Though Florida is sitting with one loss (on the road at LSU), it's ranked 11th in the latest CFP poll. That's two spots behind LSU and nine spots behind Alabama. However, the strength in the SEC still lies in the West, and a two-loss divisional champion could alter the playoff picture significantly if it ends up winning the entire conference.
Oregon at No. 7 Stanford
3 of 9
Saturday, Nov. 14
Stanford is No. 7 in the latest playoff rankings, but the Cardinal have a case as the best one-loss team along with Alabama. And no, it's not because Stanford is a beneficiary of the "body clock" defense as explained (???) by playoff chair Jeff Long. David Shaw's team has one of the most dynamic playmakers in running back Christian McCaffrey and has won seven of its last eight games by double digits.
(On a related note, "body clock" is 2015's version of "game control.")
The Nov. 28 game against Notre Dame has a "de facto playoff quarterfinal" vibe to it. However, that's under the assumption Stanford and Notre Dame win out up to that point.
Stanford has the tougher road to that game with Oregon and Cal upcoming even though both games are in Palo Alto. The Ducks are quietly tied for second place in the Pac-12 North and are looking more like their old selves. That has a lot to do with quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. finally being healthy again.
The last five meetings between Oregon and Stanford have gone one of two ways. If it was a lower-scoring game, Stanford won. If it was a shootout or a lopsided game, Oregon won.
The last time Stanford won in a high-scoring affair against the Ducks was 2009 (51-42). The Cardinal have the offensive explosiveness to win in a shootout if needed, but all we're saying is tread carefully, Stanford. The committee views you as the Pac-12's best team.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
No. 19 UCLA vs. No. 10 Utah
4 of 9
Saturday, Nov. 21
Other than Stanford, Utah is the Pac-12's last remaining hope for a playoff spot. To even think about rising at least six spots in the next month, the Utes have to win out.
The toughest regular-season game remaining comes in late November against UCLA. Not only are the Bruins the biggest challenge for the Utes, but they're also in a position to win the Pac-12 South if they do pull the upset; the following week, UCLA plays USC in a game that could also have divisional implications.
Otherwise, a two-loss (or even three-loss) team could represent the South Division in the Pac-12 Championship Game. And what if that multiloss team wins? There are a lot of hypothetical situations in the Pac-12, so the easiest way to avoid them all is for Utah to take care of business.
No. 5 Iowa at Nebraska
5 of 9
Friday, Nov. 27
Yes, Iowa as a playoff contender is a real conversation. When the committee placed the Hawkeyes at No. 5, it showed just how seriously it's taking this team.
Iowa's regular-season path to the playoff is about as straightforward as can be. Whereas the respective schedules of Baylor and Oklahoma State get harder, the Hawkeyes' schedule gets easier. None of the final three games feature an opponent that (currently) has a winning record.
But if there is an upset alert on the schedule, it's at Nebraska in the final week. The Cornhuskers have some life after a stunning (and incorrectly called, if we're being honest) win over Michigan State. If Nebraska gets a win over Rutgers, all that stands between it and bowl eligibility is a home game against the Hawkeyes.
Yeah, that's something to play for, especially given how heartbreaking this season has been for the Huskers.
If Iowa goes undefeated in the regular season, its playoff hopes come down to the Big Ten Championship Game. Things become more convoluted if the Hawkeyes lose between now and then.
No. 6 Baylor at No. 15 TCU
6 of 9
Friday, Nov. 27
Remember when this was the Big 12 game of the year? Baylor-TCU is still crucial, but in a different way after the Frogs' 49-29 loss to Oklahoma State.
The Big 12 in November is a fight for survival above all else. Baylor and Oklahoma State are the remaining unbeaten teams. Given that TCU just fell to 15th in the latest poll, the Frogs are more playoff spoiler than contender. Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports explains how this affects the Big 12 in the next few weeks:
"Ultimately, all four Big 12 contenders still have multiple opportunities to impress the committee, and if either Baylor or Oklahoma State run the table, they're in. But given that TCU plummeted from eighth to 15th, if either of the former two lose one down the stretch, they're probably out. Oklahoma, which at least lost early, is the league's only shot to make it as a one-loss champ.
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Basically, if TCU is going to spoil someone's playoff hopes, it likely comes down to the Baylor game assuming the Bears are still undefeated. The Bears are the Big 12's highest-ranked team despite having a less-impressive resume than Oklahoma State. One loss, especially that late in the season, and they're probably done.
Penn State at No. 13 Michigan State
7 of 9
Saturday, Nov. 28
Michigan State is no longer among the list of unbeaten teams after losing controversially to Nebraska. However, Sparty's playoff hopes aren't dead yet. The playoff committee dropped Michigan State six spots for losing to a sub-.500 team while dropping TCU seven spots for losing to undefeated Oklahoma State. The point being, there's hope for the Spartans yet.
And if Michigan State takes care of business against Maryland this Saturday and then beats Ohio State on Nov. 21, it controls its destiny in the Big Ten East.
So what if the Spartans then magically lose to Penn State the following week? For one, it would give the division back to the Buckeyes if they beat Michigan. Secondly, it would eliminate the Spartans from playoff contention.
No. 3 Ohio State at No. 14 Michigan
8 of 9
Saturday, Nov. 28
This is a tough one to pin down. Despite looking average for most of the year, Ohio State as an undefeated team remains No. 3 in the playoff poll. Its two toughest games—against Michigan State and Michigan—are at the end of the season, so there's an opportunity for the Buckeyes to gain two quality wins.
But a loss to Michigan could have huge ramifications. If both teams win out up to that point, the game will decide the Big Ten East champion. If Michigan wins, it goes to the Big Ten title game, presumably against undefeated Iowa, as a two-loss team.
Ohio State has felt the burden of being heavy favorites throughout the season. As a result, the Buckeyes aren't as loose as they were last year.
"I do believe that there's a little bit of tightness, heaviness of expectation, living up to other people's expectation, living up to our own expectation," head coach Urban Meyer said (via B/R's Ben Axelrod).
Will playing with that tightness hurt Ohio State at some point? The answer will probably come in the next few weeks.
According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Michigan still has a 1 percent chance at winning a national title, the cutoff point for the playoff contenders in the analysis. At No. 14, the Wolverines are the highest-ranked two-loss team in the playoff poll. All of this is to say Michigan has a chance of getting in the playoff as a two-loss team, but the odds remain the slimmest possible.
No. 16 Florida State at No. 11 Florida
9 of 9
Saturday, Nov. 28
Florida State is basically out of the playoff hunt. The Seminoles have two losses, one of which came to 3-6 Georgia Tech, and they can't win their division. Florida State can, however, put a damper on Florida's playoff hopes.
The Gators have already wrapped up the SEC East. Provided they beat South Carolina on Saturday, the Gators should be 10-1 heading into the Florida State game (sorry for the assumed win, Florida Atlantic). The Florida-Florida State game won't have any bearing on conference standings, just bragging rights.
However, if the Seminoles do beat Florida, the Gators would enter the SEC Championship Game as a two-loss team. What if, then, Florida won the SEC?
Would the SEC be left out of the playoff? It would seem so unless Florida makes a drastic jump.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All rankings reflect the latest College Football Playoff poll.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
