How Mississippi State, Dak Prescott Can Spoil Alabama's Season
Alabama just polished off a resounding 30-16 win over LSU on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa, but it is walking squarely into a trap this weekend in Starkville, Mississippi.
While the college football world gushes over second-ranked Alabama, its ability to come back from that loss to Ole Miss in Week 3 and one of the most dominant defensive fronts we've seen in a generation, the trip to play Mississippi State on Saturday afternoon should scare Alabama head coach Nick Saban, his staff and Crimson Tide nation.
Here's why.
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The Dak Attack
It was surprising last week how many people hopped on the LSU bandwagon prior to the Alabama game, considering teams like the Tigers simply don't beat Alabama.
Not lately, anyway.
Ole Miss, Ohio State, Auburn, Oklahoma and Texas A&M all have handed Saban and Co. losses over the last four years, and all have one thing in common—offensive diversity. They can stretch the Crimson Tide defense from east to west with the running game and have the ability to push the ball deep through the air consistently.
For LSU, Plans A, B and C were all "Leonard Fournette off-tackle," none of which worked.
Mississippi State is much more diverse than that, thanks to quarterback Dak Prescott.
The 6'2", 230-pound senior has been arguably better this year than he was last season, when he was the front-runner for the Heisman Trophy for about a month and finished eighth in the final voting—the highest in program history.
| 2014 | 146-of-239 | 61.1 | 2,231 | 18 | 7 | 779 | 11 |
| 2015 | 200-of-300 | 66.7 | 2,351 | 18 | 1 | 418 | 7 |
What are the qualities in a quarterback that stress Alabama defenses? A player who's a running threat, can consistently move the chains through the air and uses tempo to his advantage.
Prescott not only checks all of the boxes, but he adds a couple of more check marks off to the side just for good measure.
"He's really an outstanding passer and is always a threat to run, whether it's on designed runs or scrambles," Saban said. "I'm sure he's worked hard on becoming a more efficient and effective passer, and he's certainly been able to do that."
He can do exactly the same thing Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly did to Alabama's defense earlier this year—hit it in its weak spot early and then put pressure on the wound.
Kelly succeeded by getting the ball out of his hands early, connecting with his wide receivers on short and intermediate timing routes, and successfully neutralizing Alabama's primary strength on defense—its front seven. Sure, several of Kelly's passes were batted down, and it helped that he has what amounts to an NBA starting lineup at wide receiver, but don't sleep on Prescott's receivers.
De'Runnya Wilson has 37 catches for 626 yards and eight touchdowns on the season, and the 6'5", 215-pounder from Birmingham, Alabama, is a matchup nightmare for any defensive backfield—even one that's been as successful as Alabama's this year.
Very quietly, 6'2", 207-pound junior Fred Ross has emerged as a big-time possession weapon with 548 yards on 51 catches this season—25 of which have gone for a first down. Fred Brown has evolved into a solid third option for Prescott after catching 20 passes for 313 yards and two touchdowns this year.
"He's a much more efficient player with his decision-making," Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen said. "As a guy right from Day 1, he is really comfortable in the situations he's in and making good decisions out there on the field. I think that has led to the productivity he's had and we've had as a football team."
Plus, Prescott's running threat combined with backs Brandon Holloway and Ashton Shumpert—neither of whom are stars but are quality changeup options to Prescott—makes Mississippi State as much of an Ole Miss clone as there is in the SEC.
"Early in the year, people were loading up and trying to prevent him from running the football," Mullen said. "I think we've had some success throwing it, and that really softened things up and opened up the running lanes for [Prescott]. I don't think we've called more quarterback runs in one game or another; it's just how it has played out."
Stop the Run
Slowing down the Alabama offense isn't rocket science. If a team can slow down running back Derrick Henry, it can get the Tide out of its comfort zone.
That's easier said (or written) than done.
When you look at Mississippi State's place in the SEC's rushing-defense standings, the Bulldogs hardly jump off the page (or screen). They rank 10th in rush defense at 167.7 yards per game but are giving up just 3.93 yards per carry. They've improved in yards per carry every month this season and gave up just 3.53 last time out against Missouri.
What's more, they buckle down in the red zone. First-year defensive coordinator Manny Diaz's red-zone touchdown defense tops the conference (32.26 percent) and is tied for third nationally. It routinely forces teams to go to Plan B in the red zone.
For Alabama, that's dangerous.
"They historically are very physical on defense," Saban said. "Regardless of who's been there at coordinator, they're difficult to run against. When you can't run the ball in the red zone, that always creates issues when the field shrinks. They have very good pressure packages to give you negative plays. Their defense is really competitive in terms of how they get to the ball."
In a perfect world for the Crimson Tide, quarterback Jake Coker and wide receivers Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart will never have to make a big play that determines the outcome of the game. Saban and offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin want it to be the Derrick Henry show, especially in the red zone.
Unfortunately for the Tide, that hasn't been the case this year. They're seventh in the SEC in red-zone touchdown percentage (58.54 percent). While they've been better lately, they're facing a Bulldog front seven that has consistently buckled down when it matters most.
LSU Hangover
Saban has a 24-hour rule, where players are expected to get back to work within a day of any big win.
That's not so easy, though, especially with 18-22-year-old young men who don't mind hearing about how good they are.
Over the last four years, the Crimson Tide have looked sluggish at best the week after playing LSU, regardless of the result versus the Tigers.
After the 2011 Game of the Century, Alabama beat Mississippi State in Starkville, but it was ugly. The Tide held a 7-0 lead at halftime, a 10-0 lead going into the fourth quarter and eventually pulled away to win 24-7.
The following year in Tuscaloosa, Johnny Manziel happened. After the Tide beat LSU in Baton Rouge, the former Texas A&M quarterback had his Heisman moment, as his Aggies jumped out to a 20-0 lead and held on for a 29-24 win.
After Alabama topped LSU in 2013 in Tuscaloosa, it was another sluggish affair in Starkville the following week as the Tide defeated Mississippi State 20-7 in a game that, like the last trip to Starkville, was close going into the fourth quarter.
"We typically struggle here and we did again tonight," Saban said following that win, according to ESPN.com. "But give Mississippi State credit, they had a good game plan. They played very physical and we couldn't control the line of scrimmage."
Last year, it was another close call for the Tide with the Bulldogs immediately after the win over LSU. The No. 1 Bulldogs pulled within six points early in the fourth quarter, scored in the closing seconds to cut Alabama's lead to 25-20 and failed to recover an onside kick that iced the game for the Tide.
"We just ran out of time," Prescott said after the game, according to ESPN.com.
The LSU hangover is real for Alabama, and there's a pattern of ugly, close matchups with Mississippi State within that hangover.
What's more, Mississippi State has two extra days to prepare for the Tide in 2015, after going on the road and throttling Missouri 31-13 last Thursday night.
How are the Crimson Tide handling the LSU hangover this week?
"So far, so good," Saban said.
Be careful, Alabama. You're walking into a trap Saturday afternoon in Starkville.
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics are courtesy of cfbstats.com.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report, as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter, @BarrettSallee.
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