Big Ten Football: Bowl Projections for Every Team
With the first week of November down and just three weeks of the regular season remaining, college football's bowl season is right around the corner.
And just as it did a year ago, when Ohio State won the inaugural College Football Playoff and Michigan State and Wisconsin won New Year's Day games, the Big Ten figures to play a prominent role in this winter's postseason slate.
Through 10 weeks, seven Big Ten teams already find themselves bowl-eligible, four of which remain in contention for this year's College Football Playoff. With four weeks remaining until the announcement of this year's bowl pairings, five additional Big Ten teams still have a chance to get to the six wins required to become postseason eligible, which gives the conference a shot at having double-digit teams appear in bowl games for the second consecutive year.
Exactly how many teams from the league will become bowl-eligible and where they will be spending their postseasons this winter will be determined in the coming weeks.
With that in mind, let's take a look at where each Big Ten team is currently projected to land this bowl season.
Not Bowl Eligible: Purdue, Maryland, Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota
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Having already compiled regular-season records of 2-7, both Purdue and Maryland have been eliminated from becoming bowl-eligible for the 2015 season. For the Terrapins, that will mark three times in the past five years and the first time since joining the Big Ten in 2014 that they haven't found themselves playing in a bowl game.
For the Boilermakers, it will be their third consecutive season without having reached a bowl, which will likely mean the end of the Darrell Hazell era in West Lafayette.
Five Big Ten teams will have the chance to obtain bowl eligibility in the next month, although doing so for some will be easier said than done. That's the case in Piscataway, New Jersey, where at 3-6 on the season, Rutgers would have to win all three of its remaining games against Nebraska, Army and Maryland.
While those three opponents have combined for a total record of just 8-20 this season, the Scarlet Knights have lost four of their past five games and have had trouble moving the ball on a consistent basis with star wide receiver Leonte Carroo hampered by injuries. At this point in the season, postseason play seems unlikely for Rutgers, which would mark just the second time in 11 years that the Scarlet Knights haven't made a bowl game.
The same could be said in Lincoln, where Nebraska has played in a postseason bowl game nine times in the past 10 years, but could find itself on the outside looking in this winter. At 4-6, the Cornhuskers can only become bowl-eligible by winning the two games remaining on their schedule, including their regular-season finale against currently undefeated Iowa.
After Bo Pelini made a bowl game in each of his seven years in Lincoln, his successor, Mike Riley, could find himself suddenly on the hot seat entering just the second season of his Nebraska tenure.
With a 4-5 record to its credit, Minnesota has three chances to win two games and become bowl-eligible, but faces perhaps the toughest remaining slate of any Big Ten team still looking to make good on its postseason aspirations. The Golden Gophers' three upcoming opponents—Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin—possess a combined 22-6 record and will each have plenty to play for in the coming weeks.
Having made bowl games in each of the past three seasons, Minnesota's postseason streak will likely be coming to an end.
Illinois: Foster Farms Bowl
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With a record of 5-4 on the year, Illinois needs just one more win to obtain bowl eligibility in a season that started with the firing of its head coach a week before its first game. The Fighting Illini play undefeated Ohio State this week and No. 21 Northwestern to close the season, but sandwiched in between the Buckeyes and Wildcats is a game against 4-5 Minnesota that could be their ticket to postseason play.
Should Illinois beat the Golden Gophers—and just the Golden Gophers—it would find itself toward the back end of bowl games with Big Ten tie-ins, but could move up based on how many teams from the conference earn bids to the conference and/or New Year's Day Six games.
That could very well place a six-win Fighting Illini team in the Foster Farms Bowl against an opponent from the Pac-12.
After losing to Louisiana Tech in last season's Heart of Dallas Bowl, a trip to Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California could be seen as a step up for Illinois, which will likely be searching for a new head coach after Bill Cubit served on an interim basis this season. For that new coach, a bowl win over another Power Five opponent could serve as valuable momentum heading into what will most likely be a new era of Illinois football.
Bowl Projection: Foster Farms Bowl
Opponent: California
Date: Dec. 26
Location: Santa Clara, California
Indiana: Pinstripe Bowl
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After jumping out to a 4-0 start to the season, bowl eligibility seemed like a given for Indiana in 2015. But with one month left in the season, the Hoosiers still have some work to do, needing to add two wins to their resume after enduring a five-game losing streak to start Big Ten play.
And while that streak could jump to six with a matchup against No. 17 Michigan this weekend, Indiana will close its season with consecutive games against Maryland and Purdue—the two Big Ten teams already eliminated from postseason play. Should the Hoosiers backdoor their way to bowl eligibility, a trip to Yankee Stadium for a matchup against an opponent from the ACC in the Pinstripe Bowl could be in order.
For Indiana, that would mark its first bowl game appearance since the 2007 season. It could also be enough to save head coach Kevin Wilson's job, despite his team's sluggish start to Big Ten play this season.
"When we play, we can play with anybody," Hoosiers running back Jordan Howard said, per The Indianapolis Star. "We just have to finish games...we’re going for seven wins now—we’re trying to win the last three games."
Bowl Projection: Pinstripe Bowl
Opponent: Virginia Tech
Date: Dec. 26
Location: New York, New York
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Penn State: Music City Bowl
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At 7-3 on the season, Penn State has already clinched postseason eligibility and will look to improve its standing in the bowl selection process in its two remaining games. With matchups against Michigan and Michigan State—both of are still in contention for the Big Ten East—still ahead, that, however, could prove to be a tall task for the Nittany Lions.
Should Penn State lose their two remaining games, they'll find themselves in a position similar to last season, when at 6-6, they were selected to play in the Pinstripe Bowl. To its credit, Penn State made the most of its opportunity, beating Boston College in overtime by a score of 31-30, sealing a winning record for the season in the process.
With potentially less Big Ten teams bowl eligible this year than last and the Pinstripe Bowl wanting to feature eight different teams in its eight-year agreement with the conference, the Nittany Lions may find themselves moving up a slot this season in terms of Big Ten bowl rank. That would place Penn State in the Music City Bowl against an opponent from the SEC, providing the Nittany Lions with an opportunity to end their season on a positive note for the second time in as many years.
After Penn State was barred from postseason play in 2012 and 2013, the value of that opportunity hasn't been lost on Penn State head coach James Franklin.
"[It] allows us to keep our family together for another month or so at the end of the season," Franklin said following the Nittany Lions' postseason-clinching win over Maryland on Oct. 24. "After that, we won’t talk about it again. We’ll talk about being 1-0 each week and improving."
Bowl Projection: Music City Bowl
Opponent: Mississippi State
Date: Dec. 30
Location: Nashville, Tennessee
Wisconsin: Holiday Bowl
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You'd have to go all the way back to 2001 to find the last time a Wisconsin season didn't end with a bowl game, a 13-year streak that will continue for a 14th season with the Badgers already possessing an 8-2 record. With a 5-1 conference record to its credit and games remaining against No. 21 Northwestern and Minnesota, Wisconsin still has an outside shot at landing in the Big Ten Championship Game for the second consecutive season.
Assuming the Badgers don't go on to win the Big Ten title for the first time since 2012, they'll likely find themselves just outside the New Year's Day bowl-game slate, having already played in last season's Outback Bowl, which has an agreement to feature five different Big Ten teams over a six-year period. That could land Wisconsin in this year's Holiday Bowl in San Diego, against an opponent from the Pac-12.
After suffering a blowout loss at the hands of Alabama to start the season, closing the year with a win over a Power Five opponent could create some positive momentum for the Badgers heading into their offseason. For now, Wisconsin still has bigger aspirations, but a trip to San Diego this winter wouldn't make for a bad consolation prize.
Bowl Projection: Holiday Bowl
Opponent: Southern California
Date: Dec. 30
Location: San Diego, California
Northwestern: Outback Bowl
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Currently two games back of Iowa in the Big Ten West with three games to go, Northwestern still has a shot at appearing in the conference championship game, but will most likely fall short of capturing the division crown. Still, with a manageable schedule including remaining games against Purdue, Wisconsin and Illinois, the 7-2 Wildcats have a good opportunity to continue to add to their resume in what's already been a surprisingly successful season in Evanston.
Having not made a bowl game since 2012 after going 5-7 in both 2013 and 2014, Northwestern finds itself in great shape for landing in a New Year's Day Bowl game for the first time since appearing in the Gator Bowl three years ago.
"It’s really exciting to be able to be bowl-eligible," cornerback Nick VanHoose said following the Wildcats' sixth win of the season, which came against Nebraska on Oct. 24, per The Daily Northwestern. "It’s great to hit that mark, but six obviously isn’t enough. We want more."
The most likely landing spot for Northwestern at the moment appears to be the Outback Bowl, where the Wildcats would have an opportunity to prove themselves against an opponent from the SEC.
After a season-opening win over Stanford, which is still in contention for the College Football Playoff, an Outback Bowl appearance would give Northwestern a chance to add another impressive bookend to its 2015 campaign. With quarterback Clayton Thorson only a redshirt freshman, the future appears to be bright in Evanston and an appearance in a premier bowl game would would only add to that sentiment.
Bowl Projection: Outback Bowl
Opponent: Ole Miss
Date: Jan. 1
Location: Tampa, Florida
Michigan State: Citrus Bowl
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Despite its heartbreaking and controversial loss to Nebraska on Saturday, Michigan State still remains in the hunt to crash the College Football Playoff. With a Nov. 21 trip to Columbus to take on defending national champion Ohio State still ahead, the Spartans still control their own destiny, but also have their work cut out for themselves.
Should the Buckeyes beat Michigan State as expected, the Spartans would remain in contention for an at-large bid to a New Year's Day Six bowl game. But with Iowa and Michigan in similar positions, it could be a crowded field for the Big Ten and Michigan State could very well be the odd-man out.
If that proves to be the case, the Spartans would likely be snatched up by the Citrus Bowl, which will have the first choice of Big Ten teams after the College Football Playoff and New Year's Day Six games. The TaxSlayer Bowl is another possibility, but having picked Iowa last year, the Jacksonville-located bowl game will likely opt for an ACC team to feature in its split agreement between the two conferences.
While either bowl would be considered a disappointing ending for a Michigan State team that entered the season with national-title hopes, it would give Spartans seniors Connor Cook and Shilique Calhoun an opportunity to add another impressive victory to their career resumes, this time against an opponent from the SEC.
Michigan State, however, still has three weeks to prevent that outcome from coming to fruition, as the Spartans are still in position to control their own fate.
Bowl Projection: Citrus Bowl
Opponent: Florida
Date: Jan. 1
Location: Orlando, Florida
Michigan: Peach Bowl
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There may not be a more interesting team in the Big Ten when it comes to bowl season than Michigan, which despite already having two losses on its resume, could still control its own fate in the race for the Big Ten East—and perhaps, the College Football Playoff.
With Michigan State's loss to Nebraska, and the Spartans potentially facing another defeat to Ohio State in the coming weeks, the Wolverines could be in a position where winning out would land them in Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game. If Michigan were to do that and beat what could very well be an undefeated Iowa team, Jim Harbaugh's team would have an intriguing case for crashing the College Football Playoff.
"I’m sure they’re aware of that," Harbaugh said of his team's stakes in the coming weeks at his Monday press conference. "If not, we’ll make them aware of it. I’m sure they are."
With a regular-season finale against No. 3 Ohio State still ahead, it's no given that the Wolverines will make the most of their new-found championship aspirations. Should the Buckeyes beat Michigan in Ann Arbor on Nov. 28, the Wolverines would still likely land in contention for a New Year's Day Six bowl game, based on where they would find themselves ranked at regular season's end.
And while it may be a tough sell to some with Michigan possessing three losses on its resume, a reunion with rival and fellow at-large candidate Notre Dame in the Peach Bowl may just be too good for the selection committee to pass up.
Bowl Projection: Peach Bowl
Opponent: Notre Dame
Date: Dec. 31
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Iowa: Rose Bowl
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Still undefeated and ranked ninth in the first College Football Playoff poll of the season a week ago, Iowa remains in contention for making this year's final four. In order to do just that, the Hawkeyes would need to win their remaining games against Minnesota, Purdue and Nebraska, in addition to winning the Big Ten Championship Game.
Should Iowa falter in Indianapolis—especially against defending national champion Ohio State—the Hawkeyes would likely still be the highest-ranked of the non-playoff Big Ten teams at the end of the regular season. That would make them the obvious choice to be the conference's traditional representative in the Rose Bowl.
And while Michigan or Michigan State may be viewed as a more attractive candidates, chairman of the Rose Bowl Management Committee Scott Jenkins told the Des Moines Register that the strong presumption that the bowl would take the highest-ranked available Big Ten team is also a safe one.
"It’s really important. They’re putting a lot of weight in these rankings systems, and we will, too," Jenkins said. "It would truly have to be an extraordinary situation [for the Rose Bowl to select a lower-ranked team]."
If that's the case, Iowa will likely be heading to its first Rose Bowl since 1991. And while the Hawkeyes may currently be looking toward a larger goal, that certainly wouldn't make for a bad consolation prize.
Bowl Projection: Rose Bowl
Opponent: Utah
Date: Jan. 1
Location: Pasadena, California
Ohio State: Cotton Bowl Classic (College Football Playoff Semifinal)
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After capturing the first-ever College Football Playoff championship a year ago, Ohio State remains on track to defend its crown.
Sitting at third in the first playoff poll of the season, the Buckeyes will only improve their positioning should they win games against Michigan State, Michigan and potentially Iowa in the Big Ten title game in the coming weeks. That would give Ohio State a better spot than the No. 4 seed it won the playoff from a year ago and give the Buckeyes a more favorable matchup should it capture a top-two seed.
If that proves to be the case, the location of Ohio State's semifinal matchup will likely be determined by its opponent, as neither Miami, Florida nor Arlington, Texas provide the Buckeyes with a distinct home-field advantage. Should Ohio State face Clemson and be ranked higher than the Tigers by season's end, that would likely mean a return to North Texas, where the Buckeyes captured last season's national title.
And while last season's run may have been an unlikely one, anything less this year would be considered a disappointment for the defending champs. Urban Meyer admitted on Monday that those expectations have taken a toll on his team this season, but aren't anything that can prevent it from achieving its goals.
"I do believe that there's a little bit of tightness, heaviness of expectation, living up to other people's expectation, living up to our own expectation," Meyer said. "Most of the people in that locker room were together in Dallas, Texas and saw stuff falling from the ceiling, and then I feel it.
"But the good thing is I have experience with it."
Bowl Projection: Cotton Bowl Classic (College Football Playoff semifinal)
Opponent: Clemson
Date: Dec. 31
Location: Arlington, Texas
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
Bowl tie-ins via of CollegeFootballNews.com.
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