Texans vs. Bengals: Full Houston Week 10 Preview
Just as quickly as long-suffering fans of the Houston Texans received some hope after a great defensive performance against Tennessee, that hope may disappear right away after Monday night's game against Cincinnati.
It seems doubtful that the win over Tennessee would give even the most optimistic fan any delusions of grandeur, but it did provide a faint hope that "earning" a playoff spot could still be possible.
Not only are the Texans large underdogs on the road against an undefeated team this week, but the Indianapolis Colts—whom they were tied with for the division lead just a week ago—got an unexpected win against the previously undefeated Denver Broncos.
Another game that looked like a probable loss for Indianapolis just a week ago—its next game at Atlanta—has suddenly swung the other way after the Falcons suffered an embarrassing loss to San Francisco in Week 9.
The news of Andrew Luck missing two to six weeks could help the Texans out and hand the Colts a loss against the Falcons, but then again Atlanta did just lose to a team led by Blaine Gabbert, so we can't rule out another upset win for Indianapolis.
Any hope that fans have of a potential playoff run for the Texans is likely more a result of the poor play of Indianapolis than the strong play of Houston, so if the Colts get another surprise win with Matt Hasselbeck under center, it would rip that hope from their fragile grasp.
Even if this injury to Luck results in a losing streak for Indianapolis, the Texans' remaining opponents have a combined record of 37-29, so they're not likely to put together a string of wins to take advantage of the Colts' misfortune.
If the Texans survive their next five games with no worse than a 2-3 mark, they would be in a good position to make a playoff push despite having a 5-8 record at that point. Their last three games of the season will be against AFC South opponents, so if not already dead, they could make up some ground.
Those next five games though will feel like that herd of quarry walkers near Alexandria in The Walking Dead compared to the rest of their schedule. Their chances of survival are pretty low, and Brian Hoyer is no Rick Grimes.
When you remove the Texans' last three games of the year against the AFC South, their next five opponents heading into their Week 15 game at Indianapolis have a combined record of 29-12.
That doesn't even take into account the fact they already lost to Luck's backup at home earlier this season or that they've never won at Indianapolis since the franchise started in 2002.
So even if the Colts come into their Week 15 game against Houston with a losing record, it's quite likely that the Texans will still have an even worse record. As morbid as this may sound, the injury to Luck improves the Texans' odds but probably not enough.
Three wins against Cincinnati over two seasons in 2011 and 2012 make up arguably the three biggest moments in Houston franchise history, but a game against the Bengals this year could set a new low for the team in 2015, when those days have unfortunately become common.
The Texans' only two playoff wins in franchise history have both come against the Bengals, but they probably won't wake up the echoes of past success during this game.
Houston travels to Cincinnati for Monday Night Football at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Week 8 Results and Recap
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The only way to describe the Texans' last game is to say their opponent was overmatched and outplayed thoroughly.
Tennessee Titans quarterback Zach Mettenberger has a big arm and had some limited success last season, but he had no chance against the Texans in Week 8, as the Houston pass-rushers combined for seven sacks in a dominating 20-6 performance.
The last time the Texans sacked the quarterback seven times in a game was all the way back in 2011 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus combined for six of those seven sacks, as they made Mettenberger's day downright miserable.
Titans running back Antonio Andrews had a decent game early on, but once the Titans fell behind 17-6 in the third quarter, they had to abandon the run, and their offense completely fell apart.
Most teams struggle if forced to become one-dimensional with a pass-happy offense, but the combination of poor play from the offensive line, a great effort from the Texans' pass rush and a quarterback under center who couldn't avoid the rush became a perfect storm in a negative way for Tennessee.
Mercilus and Watt—more so Watt, obviously—are both capable of making plays against quality opposition, but the Titans surprisingly didn't give their struggling line much help with a tight end or running back staying in protection, despite Mettenberger taking hits all game long.
We could break down the coverage schemes and the linebacking corps' performance against the run, but the Texans' pass rush and the Titans' inability to protect their passer decided the game.
On offense the Texans again had a pitiful day running the ball but were efficient with the passing game and did just enough to win.
The Texans gained just 56 yards on 23 carries against a tough Titans run defense and haven't topped the 100-yard rushing mark since their Week 3 win over Tampa Bay. That 186-yard performance on the ground against the Buccaneers is their only game with more than 100 rushing yards this season.
That's kind of a problem.
Helping to make up some of the difference, quarterback Brian Hoyer had his fourth game this season with a quarterback rating over 100 out of his six games played. He also had his second game in three weeks with two or more touchdowns and no interceptions; both games were wins for the Texans.
Not surprisingly, his future Pro Bowl wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins had a big game to help out his quarterback with eight receptions for 94 yards and a touchdown to lead all Texans' receivers.
Getting anything out of the running back group with Arian Foster out for the year is unlikely, so the Texans will need similar performances from Hoyer, Hopkins and their pass rush to pick up more wins.
News and Notes
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Texans Sign an Offensive Lineman
Houston signed an offensive lineman during the bye week who was cut in October from the Carolina Panthers' practice squad.
Guard/center Eric Kush has only started one game during his brief NFL career, so at this point it would be surprising if the Texans rushed him into any sort of big role with meaningful playing time.
According to Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle, Kush knows it'll take a ton of work to get ready:
"It’s awesome, getting back to work, learning a new offense. I’m just working my butt off, learning and blending in. The guys have helped me a lot, absolutely. You get thrown right into the fire...Whatever I need to do, I’m going to put the time in and do the hard work, bust my butt in the weight room and meetings and on the field.
"
The Texans have had many injury problems along the offensive line this year, so adding depth isn't a bad idea if they believe Kush can help.
Former Texans Kicker Randy Bullock Finds a New Home
After being released from the team in September, former Texans kicker Randy Bullock has finally landed on a new team after signing with the New York Jets.
Bullock—who won the Lou Groza Award for best college kicker while at nearby Texas A&M University—always had tremendous leg talent and potential, but he was inconsistent with his accuracy and didn't come through in clutch situations often enough, which led to his release.
Few teams will be patient with inaccurate kickers, but when that kicker was drafted fairly high for the position—fifth round—by the previous coaching staff, the patience for mistakes will be even less. Missing two extra-point attempts through three games was enough in the case of Bullock.
The former Aggie tried out for two other teams after his release but won a four-kicker competition to earn a spot on the Jets roster.
The Jets' regular kicker Nick Folk has played well this season with only three misses on 16 field-goal attempts—and no misses on extra-point attempts—but suffered a quadricep injury and was placed on injured reserve.
Latest Injury News
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| Carlos Thompson | Wrist | Injured Reserve |
| Jeff Adams | Knee | Injured Reserve |
| Tom Savage | Shoulder | Injured Reserve |
| Reshard Cliett | Knee | Injured Reserve |
| David Quessenberry | Illness | Injured Reserve |
| Arian Foster | Achilles | Injured Reserve |
| Lonnie Ballentine | Knee | Injured Reserve |
| Ryan Griffin | Knee | Injured Reserve/DFR |
| Greg Mancz | Knee | Injured Reserve |
| Kareem Jackson | Ankle | Out |
| Duane Brown | Concussion | Questionable |
| Benardrick McKinney | Concussion | Questionable |
| Jadeveon Clowney | Back | Questionable |
| Akeem Dent | Hamstring | Questionable |
| Cecil Shorts | Hamstring | Probable |
Source: Pro Football Reference
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Key Matchups
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Stopping the Bengals' Two-Back Rushing Attack
The Cincinnati offense features two dynamic running backs, but the shared position is where the similarities between the two players end.
Using the often-copied "thunder and lightning" type combination that we've seen many times in the past with other teams, the duo of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard has been a difficult problem to solve this season.
In the Bengals offense, Hill plays the role of the powerful, bruising, between-the-tackles runner at 6'1" and 233 pounds, while the smaller Bernard—5'9", 202 pounds—uses his speed to pick up yards and frustrate opponents.
The combination forces defensive coordinators and the linebacker on the field who is making the calls to be alert at all times as to which of the two is on the field.
If it's Bernard, then there's a good chance that the run may go to the outside, so the defense will need to have an extra linebacker with speed on the field who can set the edge and get out on screen passes.
Bernard is tied with rookie sensation Todd Gurley for the third-best yards-per-carry average this season at 5.6 yards per attempt.
On the other hand, if Hill is in the game, then the run is more likely to be directed between the tackles, so the defense will need more run-stuffers on the field to plug up the middle gaps.
Hill's yards-per-carry average is down this season, but he's tied for third in rushing touchdowns and is one of the toughest ball-carriers in the league to bring down on initial contact.
The Texans will need to worry about all of that while still trying to slow down the Cincinnati receiving threats—not an easy task.
Can the Texans Linebackers Cover Tyler Eifert?
Other tight ends grab most of the headlines in the NFL, but Tyler Eifert might be the best player at the position whom most fans have never heard of; fans of the Texans will get a warm introduction to him this week.
The third-year player had an average rookie season and missed all but one game last year due to injury, but he is having a monster 2015 for the Bengals.
Through eight games, Eifert has 37 receptions for 434 yards and nine touchdowns. His numbers for receptions and yards are very good for the position, but that touchdown total through just half of a season makes him a poor man's version of Rob Gronkowski this year.
Among other NFL tight ends, Eifert ranks 11th in receptions and eighth in yards this season but leads the league in receiving touchdowns by a tight end—two more than Gronkowski.
After releasing Mike Mohamed—who recently signed with the New Orleans Saints—the Texans don't have a single inside linebacker with the speed and technique to cover quality tight ends down the field. The Bengals have several other dangerous weapons, but expect Andy Dalton to look for big No. 85 often.
Texans X-Factor of the Week
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Texans' X-Factor of the Week: Cornerback Johnathan Joseph
After a rough start to the season against Kansas City and Carolina, veteran corner Johnathan Joseph has bounced back to have a good campaign.
Starting from the Week 3 game, Joseph is the Texans' highest-graded cornerback on Pro Football Focus and is the only one at the position on the team with a positive coverage rating. Rookie corner Kevin Johnson has played well also, but for at least this season, Joseph is still Houston's best player at the position.
Over the last six games, Joseph leads all Texans cornerbacks in completion percentage, quarterback rating, touchdowns allowed and passes defensed on throws into their coverage.
Joseph will need to have his best game of the season in his return to a stadium he once called home, because he'll likely match up with one of the best receivers in the league.
Four-time Pro Bowler A.J. Green ranks 11th in both receptions and receiving yards by a wide receiver this year and is on pace to finish the season with 100 catches for 1,404 yards.
If he reaches 100 receptions, that would break his previous career high.
Not only is Green a very skilled receiver, but at 6'4" he also represents a height mismatch against the 5'11" Joseph.
Green had a monster game for the Bengals when these two teams met last year in Week 12, recording 12 receptions for 121 yards. The rest of the Bengals' roster combined for 12 receptions and 112 receiving yards that day.
Joseph didn't line up against Green very much in that game, so as you might expect, he had a solid performance against the Bengals. In that game, Joseph allowed just three receptions for 26 yards and no touchdowns and intercepted Andy Dalton once.
He returned that interception 60 yards for the Texans' only touchdown of the game.
With all the attention Houston has to pay to Tyler Eifert and the Bengals' two running backs, Joseph will probably have to match up against Green in solo man coverage for a good chunk of this game.
In now his 10th season in the league, Joseph likely doesn't have the ability to stop Green in one-on-one situations often, but he is the Texans' best chance to at least slow down the big receiver.
Prediction: Bengals 31, Texans 17
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Deep analysis isn't necessary to pick the Cincinnati Bengals this week.
The Bengals are at home. They're undefeated and average more yards gained and more points scored. They rank higher than the Texans in yards allowed and points allowed. They have caused more turnovers on defense and have turned it over fewer times on offense than the Texans have.
Easy bottom line here: The Bengals are a better football team than the Texans.
Prediction: Bengals 31, Texans 17
Follow me on Twitter for more news and opinion on the Texans: @sackedbybmac.
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