Duke Basketball: Predictions for Blue Devils' Toughest Games in 2015-16

Duke had its way with a pair of outmatched opponents over the weekend to kick off the 2015-16 season, but now comes the real work.

Starting with Tuesday's matchup in the Champions Classic, the Blue Devils are set to face a strong list of tough opponents both in the preseason and throughout ACC play. They're not the only games that matter, but they are the ones that figure to have the greatest impact on whether they can be in position to defend their NCAA title in March.

Based on how Duke has looked to this point, as well as the quality of its future foes, we'll break down and project how six of its toughest games in 2015-16 will play out.

Nov. 17 vs. Kentucky (in Chicago)

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"If only we could have seen this game last season..."

This is a statement that a great number of college basketball fans and experts said at one point or another during the 2014-15 season, when Kentucky was going about its pursuit of perfection and Duke was building the foundation for its title. We got oh so close, with each team making the Final Four in Indianapolis, but the Wildcats fell to Wisconsin in the national semifinals.

We'll have to settle for an early-season tilt between the teams, though the current versions are quite different.

Between them, 11 key players either graduated or entered the NBA draft early, leading to a major exodus of talent and experience. However, they both reloaded on the recruiting trail, bringing in the top two classes, per 247Sports.

Both Duke and Kentucky have bulldozed their first two opponents, with Duke winning by an average of 28 points and Kentucky by 21.5. Each has gotten a strong mix of contributions from both newcomers and veterans, but Kentucky's performance has looked more consistent to this point.

Duke has been more reliant on its returners than originally expected, but in a game like this, it will need to get help from its entire lineup to succeed.

Predicted winner: Kentucky

Dec. 2 vs. Indiana

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Indiana is an experienced team that brings back a ton of capable shooters, which has led to Bleacher Report projecting the Hoosiers as the top three-point shooting team for the 2015-16 season. But the key to their being a true competitor this year will be how they play inside, with freshman Thomas Bryant an integral part of that approach.

The 6'10" Bryant had 11 points and nine rebounds (including five on the offensive glass) on 4-of-4 shooting in Indiana's 88-49 opening win over Eastern Illinois. He helped lead a 51-17 dominance of the boards, with junior Troy Williams and Michigan transfer Max Bielfeldt chipping in with another 23 points and 16 boards from the interior.

Duke is very guard-oriented this year, so much that 6'9" Brandon Ingram is spending as much time playing on the perimeter as he is in the frontcourt. It's an area where the Blue Devils can get exposed until they establish a good rotation in the paint, which should be in place by what will be their eighth game of the season.

Predicted winner: Duke

Dec. 17 vs. Utah (in New York City)

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Utah gave Duke a game back in March in the Sweet 16 in Houston, with the Blue Devils coming out with a 63-57 victory. The Blue Devils were able to contain the Utes' best player, Delon Wright, but others gave them trouble, including big man Jakob Poeltl.

Poeltl minimized Jahlil Okafor's impact on the inside in that game, and with another offseason of training under his belt, he's stronger than ever. The 7'0" sophomore had 26 points on 11-of-13 shooting with 11 rebounds and four blocks in Utah's 82-71 win Friday against Southern Utah.

He is going to provide a matchup nightmare for Duke's frontcourt, but this is a game where its talent outside can trump that. Look for the Blue Devils to throw numerous bodies at Poeltl to disrupt his game, while offensively it will focus on shooting from the perimeter and then driving when the defense plays too tightly.

Predicted winner: Duke

Feb. 13 vs. Virginia

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The two-time defending ACC regular-season champs weren't picked to win the league again—instead, Virginia was chosen second, just ahead of Duke—but until someone else knocks the Cavaliers from their pedestal, they're the team to beat in the conference. And like in those previous two seasons, the Blue Devils will only get one shot at the Cavs because of the unbalanced schedule.

Duke won in Charlottesville last January, solving Virginia's complicated defensive scheme that remains a problem for opponents. The Cavs held Morgan State to 34 percent shooting in an 86-48 defeat on Friday.

Virginia has fifth-year seniors in Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill and plenty of upperclassmen who contribute to the winning formula. A game like this will require Duke's own veterans to set the example for the freshmen, but by mid-February, that group will have identified a few leaders who won't be considered first-year players anymore.

Predicted winner: Duke

Feb. 17 at North Carolina

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North Carolina began this season ranked No. 1 in the Associated Press poll and was the heavy favorite among voters to win the ACC in 2015-16. The Tar Heels returned four starters from last year's Sweet 16 team, though they're currently without star Marcus Paige after the senior broke a bone in his hand in early November.

Paige's absence will have allowed for the Tar Heels' other guards to get a chance to be leaders, something that didn't present itself much last season and, combined with uneven play from Paige, led to some poor showings from the perimeter. UNC's strength is inside, where seniors Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks have been involved for several years, but it needs to be more productive from the backcourt to be a real player this season.

Duke always brings out the best in UNC, and vice versa, and their games are usually among the best in the country on an annual basis. Duke won both meetings last season, including by seven in Chapel Hill in February. All told, the Blue Devils have taken 10 of the last 13 games with four of those in the Dean Smith Center.

But if UNC ends up being as good as projected, expecting to win on its home court isn't likely—not when this game comes right after hosting Virginia and at the start of tough two-game road trip.

Predicted winner: North Carolina

Feb. 20 at Louisville

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Much like Duke, departures have made for a very different-looking Louisville team in 2015-16. The Cardinals had to replace more than 82 percent of their scoring, per Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller, because of players who either graduated, turned pro or left the program to play elsewhere.

Yet Rick Pitino isn't having to be as reliant on freshmen as most teams in this situation—not after he landed two of the more high-profile graduate transfers during the offseason. Former Drexel wing Damion Lee had 14 points, five rebounds and two steals in Louisville's 86-45 win over Samford on Friday, while ex-Cleveland State guard Trey Lewis had a team-high six assists.

With those veterans, combined with some promising young guards and a few returners who are expected to play bigger roles this season, Louisville will remain a force.

Duke will be playing at Louisville for the second year in a row. It won 63-52 there last season in front of a large crowd, which tends to never be an issue for Mike Krzyzewski's teams, and coming three days after playing at North Carolina, the hostile atmosphere won't feel any different.

Predicted winner: Duke

March 5 vs. North Carolina

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The traditional regular-season finale for both Duke and North Carolina will be played in Durham this year. The last time these teams met in Cameron Indoor Stadium, it required a massive Duke comeback (and overtime) for the home team to come out on top. 

We can only hope for something remotely as exciting this time around, especially since it will be the last game either plays before going into the ACC tournament.

Last year's meetings were decided by two and seven points, respectively, and six of the last 12 have been decided by single digits. Duke has only lost once at home to UNC this decade, and that was in 2012. 

Predicted winner: Duke

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.