Bleacher Report's Expert Predictions for the 2015-16 College Basketball Season
We've already posted our preseason All-American teams and NCAA tournament bracket projection and still have plenty of goodies coming your way very soon, but no final week of the college basketball preseason could possibly be complete without some oddly specific predictions that could either look incredibly brilliant or completely foolish in a few months.
Our panel of college basketball experts consists of Jason Franchuk, Jason King, Kerry Miller, C.J. Moore and Brian Pedersen. In total, there were 12 questions posed to each of them on a range of topics: Cinderella teams most likely to reach the Final Four, the best dunker in the country, how the six power conferences stack up and much more.
There was some degree of consensus on a few of the questions, but most answers were all over the map—indicative of how wide open this season appears to be. Voters in the preseason polls can't even remotely agree on who deserves to open the season ranked No. 1 in the country, so it would be just plain weird if all five of our experts agreed on their Final Four picks in early November.
We hope you enjoy our educated guesses, and be sure to keep the conversation going by adding your own predictions on these topics.
1. What Will Be the Best Nonconference Game?
1 of 12
Franchuk: North Carolina at Texas, Dec. 12: This is a great litmus test to see how Shaka Smart’s first year is going. UNC’s breakneck-paced offense against what he’s trying to accomplish on defense with the Longhorns. Getting the Tar Heels—a potential No. 1 seed down the road—at home is a plus. And considering UT will fall in that second tier of Big 12 teams, this could be a big NCAA at-large bid portfolio booster to offset potential league-time struggles against a loaded Big 12.
King: Kentucky at Kansas is the runaway winner. But for the sake of being different, I'll go with the tilt between Maryland and North Carolina, Dec. 1 in Chapel Hill. The former ACC rivals each enter the season ranked in the top five, and both boast a nice blend of talent, depth and experience. Mix in Roy Williams' history with Mark Turgeon—Turgeon coached under Williams at Kansas—and there is plenty of drama to make this a must-watch showdown.
Miller: For the first seven months of the offseason, I definitely would have said Maryland at North Carolina. But now that Marcus Paige might be out for that game, it has lost enough of its luster for the late-January slugfest between Kentucky and Kansas to climb to the top spot. Arizona at Gonzaga could also be a great game with serious potential seeding implications in March.
Moore: Kentucky at Kansas. The two winningest programs and two of the best teams in the country at the best venue in college hoops? Sign me up. Tickets for this game on StubHub have already reached $3,000.
Pedersen: Duke vs. Kentucky. Even though both teams are overloaded with newcomers, they represent the top two recruiting classes for 2015 and two of the best coaches in the game. This is the matchup we begged for in the national title game last year, but instead we get it to top off this season.
2. Who's the Best "Under-the-Radar" Player?
2 of 12
Franchuk: Dorian Finney-Smith of Florida. The Gators have a lot of new faces. And having someone other than Billy Donovan on the sideline will be a national curiosity all season. In what should be a top-heavy but rugged SEC, the 6'8" forward can handle the ball and shoot threes. The former SEC top sixth man will be in a good penetration-oriented system to build on his 13.1 points, 6.2 rebounds per game of last year. Mike White needs him to be good to ease some of those pressures of replacing Billy D.
King: Don’t be surprised if Oregon sophomore Dillon Brooks emerges as one of the country’s best players by the end of the season. The 6'6", 225-pound small forward averaged 11.5 points and 4.9 rebounds last season and has the skills to play on the perimeter and the energy and toughness to mix it up in the paint. I’ll be surprised if he averages fewer than 15 points as a sophomore.
Miller: It's tempting to say Caris LeVert, because a whole lot of people have clearly forgotten how good he was before suffering that foot injury during Michigan's horrible 2014-15 season, but he was widely known at one point in time. Instead, I'm going to go with Jordan Bell from Oregon. The way everyone talked about the Ducks last season, you would think it was Joseph Young and four inflatable tube dancers, but Bell was one of the best shot-blockers in the country as a freshman. He's inevitably going to have a bigger role in the offense this season.
Moore: James Webb III, Boise State. Webb had two DNPs in the first month of the season last year and was stuck to the bench at Boise State. Now he's an NBA prospect and one of the best stretch 4s in the country. With Derrick Marks graduating, he should put up big numbers.
Pedersen: Ryan Anderson, Arizona. He was a good player on a bad team at Boston College in 2013-14, but after sitting out last season following his transfer, he's possibly the most important piece of the Wildcats' push for another Pac-12 title. A versatile forward who can play inside and shoot, he's going to help Arizona battle again despite losing four starters.
3. What Coach Is Most Squarely on the Hot Seat?
3 of 12
Franchuk: Tom Crean, of course. When Indiana fans are booing your kid at his own high school game, coupled with the in-house leadership problems this offseason, Big Ten fans may very soon be asking “Hoosier” next coach?
King: Kansas State’s Bruce Weber led the Wildcats to a share of the Big 12 title in his first season in 2012-13 and a NCAA tournament berth the following season. But fans turned against Weber after last year’s 8-10 Big 12 finish—and things could be even worse this year following the transfer of star guard Marcus Foster to Creighton and the graduation of double-figure scorers Thomas Gipson and Nino Williams.
Miller: It's got to be Seton Hall's Kevin Willard. Last year was supposed to be the year the Pirates finally went back to the tournament. Instead, Jaren Sina transferred in mid-February after starting the first 23 games of the season, "veteran leader" Sterling Gibbs tried to break an opposing player's face in the middle of a game (and subsequently transferred at season's end), and after landing 2014 5-star Isaiah Whitehead, Willard wasn't even able to sign a single 4-star guy in this year's class. In five seasons, he has an overall record one game over .500. Another lackluster year, and he absolutely has to get canned.
Moore: Lorenzo Romar, Washington. The Huskies have missed four straight NCAA tournaments, and it doesn't look promising this year after star guard Nigel Williams-Goss transferred. The best card Romar has is Markelle Fultz, a big-time 2016 prospect already committed to the Huskies. With a young roster, maybe Washington's administration is patient, but it's rare to survive five years without a tourney appearance at a strong basketball school like Washington.
Pedersen: Washington's Lorenzo Romar. He turned around that program but has hit a major wall the last few years, and this has resulted in some considerable turnover. Losing Nigel Williams-Goss to a transfer (to Gonzaga) instead of the NBA was telling, and if he's not able to produce with another decent recruiting class, his time might be up in Seattle.
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
4. Freshman You're Most Excited to See?
4 of 12
Franchuk: Kansas’ Cheick Diallo is turning into a legend the longer he sits out. LSU's Ben Simmons, sure. But I’m most excited to see Cal’s Jaylen Brown, a top-5 prospect who took a path less traveled to Berkeley from Georgia. Coupled with a coach, Cuonzo Martin, who doesn’t get enough credit, and the young Bears could be really fun to watch.
King: LSU’s Ben Simmons and Kentucky’s Skal Labissiere have commanded most of the headlines, but I’m anxious to watch Kentucky guard Jamal Murray, the late-signee from Canada who is projected to be a first-round pick. Murray is a combo guard who is incredibly mature and cerebral for his age. I won’t be shocked if the projected lottery pick ends up being Kentucky’s best player.
Miller: Ben Simmons. No question. Put the words "point" and "forward" together, and I'm there. I'm not yet convinced that LSU will actually be any better than last year because of him, but Simmons is a walking triple-double. Forget about freshmen, he's the college basketball player most likely to lead to friends texting friends mid-game to make sure they're watching something incredible.
Moore: KeVaughn Allen, Florida. The easy answer is Ben Simmons—and believe me, Simmons is a treat to watch—but I'll go with an under-the-radar guy in Allen. The shooting guard is a highlight waiting to happen, and he fits perfectly in new coach Michael White's uptempo/pressing system.
Pedersen: Indiana's Thomas Bryant. Tom Crean has plenty of shooters, but he needs a big man to counter the sizable post players in the Big Ten who have made it hard for him to win with the Hoosiers. Bryant is long and athletic and could dominate.
5. What Teams Will Be Ranked No. 1 During the Season?
5 of 12
Franchuk: North Carolina, Kentucky, Maryland, Gonzaga, Duke, Iowa State. Gonzaga’s my all-or-nothing pick. It has a reasonable nonconference schedule so it could climb, especially as others from bigger conferences get beat. Plus the West Coast has a limited number of upset bids. The big question is how fast head coach Mark Few can replace that experienced guard line of Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr. They could drop out of the top 10 quickly in league play with a defeat because of the league perception.
King: I don’t think we’ll see a dominant program like last year’s Kentucky squad—at least not before February. Even the best teams are going to take some lumps. For that reason I predict that Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina, Maryland and Virginia will all spend time in the No. 1 slot.
Miller: North Carolina already is No. 1, so we should probably include the Tar Heels. By Week 2 or 3—between Marcus Paige's injury and the Champion's Classic—Kentucky should ascend to the top spot. Eventually, the Wildcats will lose a game, and Maryland will be there to take their place. And if Wichita State comes as close to an undefeated season as I think they could, the Shockers might eventually get the chance to jump to No. 1.
Moore: North Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, Maryland, Virginia. Those are the best five teams in the country. No one is running the table this year, so we should see some turnover at the top spot. Kentucky is still the most talented team in the country but has less room for error than last year's team, and the SEC has improved. The ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 will beat up on each other, so we could see No. 1 changing hands on almost a weekly basis once the conference season gets here.
Pedersen: Duke, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Iowa State, Maryland, North Carolina, Villanova. Most of the usual suspects, but thanks to strong nonconference games for many of the top teams, there's room to have some movement early on atop the rankings.
6. Who Will Be the Best Dunker in College Basketball?
6 of 12
Franchuk: Grayson Allen, Duke. We saw against Wisconsin in the title game how he can get to the rim. He won a McDonald’s All-American Game slam-dunk contest back in the day too. More playing time will help his highlight-reel cause. Wouldn’t be surprised if he posterizes a few guys and draws some technical fouls for hard contact at the rim. He’s a pesky sort.
King: I haven’t seen him perform in person, but judging from YouTube clips, UNLV's Derrick Jones is the runaway winner. The 6'6" freshman from Philly was the 30th-ranked recruit in the class of 2015 by ESPN.com. As excited as fans may be to see him dunk, they’d probably much prefer that he contributes to enough victories to lead the Runnin’ Rebels back to the NCAA tournament.
Miller: UNLV's Derrick Jones makes Montrezl Harrell look like a soft dunker. He should be the best. High Point's John Brown is also forever in this conversation until he finally graduates. Don't sleep on Duke's Grayson Allen either. For a 6'5" shooting guard, he can really fly.
Moore: John Brown, High Point. Brown is one of the must-see mid-major stars. He has a motor that will get him a look in the NBA, although his age—he'll turn 24 in January—is working against him. But reason No. 1 to watch him: the dunks. He has the combination of power and hops that makes for some mean dunks. Just watch the tape.
Pedersen: John Brown, High Point. He's been stuck on a team that's had great regular seasons in the Big South but can't get into the NCAA tournament. If he did, though, he's liable to destroy some rims in large arenas. The Panthers get a few chances to shine against power teams, opening at Texas Tech and also visiting Georgia and North Carolina State.
7. When Will the Last Undefeated Team Lose?
7 of 12
Franchuk: Tough question. I’m going to say Gonzaga, but that’s no sure thing. It has a game in Japan (vs. Pittsburgh) and a trip to the Bahamas for the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. But for as good as the Bulldogs should be, if they get through the opening portion, they get UCLA and Arizona to visit Spokane, Washington. I’ll say the first loss comes Feb. 7 at Pepperdine, a WCC team on the rise. Iowa State should also stay undefeated for a while; it shouldn't be challenged until Dec. 22 at Cincy at the earliest.
King: Kentucky is playing some big-name schools in the nonconference, but Duke, Louisville, Ohio State and UCLA won’t be as strong as they’ve been in the past. A Jan. 5 tilt with Ben Simmons and LSU in Baton Rouge is dangerous, but Tigers coach Johnny Jones will find a way to mess that one up. Thus, I expect Kentucky to be undefeated when they enter Allen Fieldhouse to take on Kansas on Jan. 30. Three hours later, the Wildcats will be toting their first loss.
Miller: The final weekend of January feels like a safe bet. That's when we get the aforementioned Kentucky vs. Kansas game. It's also when Wichita State plays arguably its most difficult conference game (at Evansville).
Moore: No team in the country will have more motivation to prove some kind of point during the regular season than the postseason-ineligible Mustangs. SMU has only one road game against a likely NCAA tourney team (at Tulsa on Dec. 29) until traveling to Connecticut on Feb. 18. Larry Brown's boys are going to play pissed off, and that combined with a favorable schedule could lead to a long streak to start the year. I say the Mustangs don't lose until Gonzaga visits Moody Coliseum on Feb. 13.
Pedersen: Jan. 31, 2016. Wichita State at Evansville. The Shockers will make another push for a perfect regular season, navigating a nonconference schedule that includes games against UNLV, Utah and some quality opponents at the AdvoCare Invitational in Orlando. The Missouri Valley Conference isn't as strong as last year, but the trip to Evansville will be the end of that run at the hands of D.J. Balentine and the Purple Aces.
8. How Do You Rank the 6 Major Conferences?
8 of 12
Franchuk: Big 12, ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC, Big East. I had the hardest time figuring out what to do with the SEC. The bottom level is brutal. But the second tier (group behind Kentucky) will be chasing at-large bids all season. Vanderbilt will be at a historical high. Texas A&M should be improved. LSU has a lot of young talent and arguably the country’s best player. Florida and Georgia could challenge if things fall in place.
King: ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC, Big East. With North Carolina, Virginia and Duke all with a legitimate argument to be in the preseason Top Five, the ACC is the easy pick here. But ordering the Power Five leagues is a bit tougher after that. With Kansas, Oklahoma and Iowa State, the Big 12 is a bit more top heavy than the Big Ten, which may have more depth. The rise of Cal and Utah have boosted the Pac-12's resume, but recent high-profile coaching hires have fans excited in the SEC.
Miller: ACC, B12, B10, SEC, P12, Big East. That's in order of likelihood of winning the national championship. In order of how they would fare if the top five and bottom five teams from each conference played a round-robin tournament against the correspondingly ranked teams from each other conference, I'll say B12, ACC, B10, Big East, P12, SEC.
Moore: ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, Pac-12, Big East. Much like last year, the ACC is the best at the top and the Big 12 is probably the deepest conference, although the middle-of-the-pack should be better than last year in the ACC. The SEC is a lot closer to the top three than last year and is going to continue to make a push with the wise coaching changes that have been made in that league. The Pac-12 is not as strong at the top this year—Utah and Arizona are not at the same level as they were—but that's another league that is deeper than a year ago.
Pedersen: ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, Pac-12, Big East. The ACC will remain the top league as long as schools like Duke and North Carolina continue to churn out top teams. The addition of Virginia to that on a regular basis just adds to its superiority. The Big 12 and Big Ten are very close behind, though, while the Pac-12 is set for a down overall year, and the Big East just can't compete with the other power conferences.
9. What Team Not in Preseason Top 25 Has Best Chance to Reach Final Four?
9 of 12
Franchuk: If I go off the coaches’ rankings, I’ll take Michigan. The Wolverines should be healthy, talented with Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton Jr., and improve on the No. 26 start (they’re No. 25 in the AP). If it’s the AP poll, I’m going to take Texas A&M. Plenty of experience returning. A healthy Danuel House makes for a potentially lethal Aggies team.
King: People are sleeping on West Virginia, which returns 74 percent of its scoring from last season’s Sweet 16 team and features one of the country’s most underrated players in forward Devin Williams. Not many teams are as relentless on defense as the Mountaineers, who won 25 games last year—their most since making the Final Four in 2010.
Miller: Cincinnati, and it's not even close. With the new rule changes, being able to defend and doing so without fouling is going to be of paramount importance. The Bearcats bring pretty much everyone back from last season, they have ranked top 25 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency in each of the past five years, and with 2.6 personal fouls per game, Octavius Ellis was the only player on last year's roster to average more than 2.0 per game. If Gary Clark has a breakout sophomore season, Cincinnati could be a Top 10 team.
Moore: Texas A&M. The Aggies have scoring inside and out, talent, depth and experience. Their freshman class, led by big man Tyler Davis, is one of the best in the country, and the veterans returning nearly reached the NCAA tournament last year. I was surprised to see this team not in the preseason Top 25.
Pedersen: Louisville. The Cardinals are a bit of an unknown at this point with so many fresh faces, but the experience that graduate transfers Trey Lewis and Damion Lee bring combined with Rick Pitino's coaching acumen will make this a very dangerous team throughout the year. Assuming Pitino doesn't leave or get pushed out amid the sex scandal that surfaced this fall, he's always one to watch in March.
10. What Team Is Most Likely to Flop in March?
10 of 12
Franchuk: Kansas. This team is built more for the regular season. No extra-gear, truly top-shelf players and dominant at home. So the Jayhawks will win a league title but be limited come postseason despite all of the experience. Especially if freshman forward Cheick Diallo isn’t eligible. He's a game-changer. Bill Self has already made comments to local media about “stale” practices, and he’s had to waste a lot of time talking to NCAA types about Diallo. Not good signs.
King: It’s hard not to respect the job Tony Bennett has done at Virginia, where the Cavaliers have won back-to-back ACC titles. The NCAA tournament, though, hasn’t been kind to Virginia. Bennett’s squad lost in the Sweet 16 as a No. 1 seed in 2014. Last spring, as a No. 2 seed, the Cavaliers didn’t even make it that far, falling to Michigan State in the third round. It's hard to have much faith in Virginia until it gets over the hump.
Miller: The safe pick is Georgetown. The Hoyas have practically cornered the market on flopping over the past eight years. But I'm going to go out on a limb and pick an AP Top 10 team that won't make the Sweet 16: Iowa State. I was in love with the Cyclones when Georges Niang (wisely) decided to come back for one more year, but I have gradually fallen out of love with them over the past several months. Keep those chins up in Ames, though, because I had Iowa State in the championship game in my bracket last season, so maybe I'm just horrendous at reading that team.
Moore: Duke. The Blue Devils don't have much interior scoring and are handing the team over to a freshman point guard in Derryck Thornton. Just because Tyus Jones played beyond his years doesn't mean Thornton will do the same. The talent is there to win a lot of games in the regular season—Brandon Ingram is a stud—but this team isn't close to being on the level of last year's national champs.
Pedersen: LSU. Yes, the Tigers landed the No. 1 overall prospect in Ben Simmons, a 6'10" guy who can play every position, and there's other talent on the team. But Johnny Jones had talent the past two seasons as well and did nothing with it, so why should we expect anything different this time around?
11. Who Will Make the Final Four?
11 of 12
Franchuk: Kentucky, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Virginia. Three of the four seem pretty obvious. Gonzaga’s the odd ball, sure, but it has great talent inside and will be a very, very tough matchup because of all the height. Especially with Kyle Wiltjer’s versatility. Gonzaga was so close last year, too, so that experience will help.
King: Kentucky has the best talent. Kansas and North Carolina have the best depth and experience. Wichita State has the best team. Those are my favorites to make it to Houston.
Miller: Even with the bracket in front of me, I don't think I've correctly picked the Final Four since 2008 when all the No. 1 seeds made it, so to pick the Final Four in November is kind of crazy. That said, give me Kentucky, Kansas, Maryland and whoever wins the ACC.
Moore: Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina and Villanova. It feels like one of those years where we could get a crazy Final Four, but it's hard not to go relatively chalk in the preseason. Villanova is the one team not in the Top Five that I have here. Freshman point guard Jalen Brunson plays like a veteran and is joining a group that's already won a ton of games.
Pedersen: Kentucky, Michigan State, North Carolina, Wichita State. MSU won't be a surprise like last year, as Tom Izzo's team will be strong all season. Kentucky and UNC will also be near the top throughout the year, while Wichita will ride the talents of senior guards Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet to its second Final Four in four years.
12. Who Will Win the 2016 NCAA Championship?
12 of 12
Franchuk: North Carolina. Roy Williams has the right group this year, assuming Marcus Paige isn’t facing some injury in March. He’s hurt to start the year, but that’s a time for the Tar Heels to tinker (say that three times fast) and develop. This team won’t go wire-to-wire at No. 1, but there’s a reason why it starts up top.
King: Kansas will get the best of Kentucky in Lawrence on Jan. 30. But the Wildcats will be a different team in the postseason. Labissiere and Murray will be performing like the top-five NBA draft picks they’re expected to become, Tyler Ulis will have blossomed into one of the top point guards in America, and Alex Poythress will be playing the best basketball of his career. Kentucky is your 2015-16 NCAA champion, folks.
Miller: In what should be a season full of parity, I really like Maryland. The Terrapins have an extremely strong starting five, depth at every position and a nice blend of veteran leadership and young talent. Mark Turgeon has only been to the Sweet 16 once in his 17-year career, and last year was the first time he ever led a team to a No. 4 seed or better, but how many Final Fours had Kevin Ollie been to before winning the 2014 title?
Moore: Kentucky. Eventually John Calipari is going to win another title. Once again he has more talent than anyone else in the country. What I like about this group is point guard Tyler Ulis. He's going to be a great leader and will have a ton of motivation in March after the disappointment of last year's Final Four.
Pedersen: North Carolina. Marcus Paige's broken hand will make for a potentially up-and-down first month of this season, but that should work in UNC's favor by forcing other guards to step up and fill his void. That will lead to depth and experience that will prove valuable in the late stages of the season, when one of the most veteran teams in the country will cut down the nets in Houston, and Roy Williams will claim his third national title.
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
