Is a High-Powered Offense or Stingy Defense a Better Path to 2015 CFB Playoff?

In this day and age of high-powered offenses—and penalties, like targeting, that naturally favor the offense—it's fair to challenge whether the old adage of "defense wins championships" is actually true. 

This transcends college and pro football. Last January, Hall of Famer Mike Singletary told Jeffri Chadiha of ESPN.com, "You never want to say never, but I will say this: It's more difficult than ever to play defense today, and I think it's probably easier than ever to play quarterback."

With November underway, almost all of college football's playoff contenders will face their toughest competition, including each other. Is there a specific trend that will predict winners over the next five weeks? When it comes to high-powered offenses versus stingy defenses, which one is more likely to win out?

Many of the College Football Playoff's Top 16* teams typically excel on at least one side of the ball. That's why they're in this position to start. But which side is a better indicator of what it takes to be "championship material" in 2015? We chart several national rankings in key offensive and defensive statistical categories** below, from raw data (points per game, yards per play) to advanced data (efficiencies, points per drive). 

Offenses

It's straightforward: Offenses are ruling college football. Every team charted has scored at least 31 points per game, and exactly half ranked in the top 25 nationally in six of the seven categories used. Two more teams, Clemson and Florida State, came close. 

Team	Scoring Offense (points)	Yards per play (yards)	OFEI/OE	OAY	OEx	OMe	PPD
Clemson	11 (40.6)	29 (6.37)	16	29	13	100	19
LSU	14 (38.9)	7 (7.19)	5	11	9	59	5
Ohio State	15 (38.5)	20 (6.73)	21	23	6	98	23
Alabama	43 (33.5)	64 (5.65)	41	57	75	41	47
Notre Dame	23 (36.5)	5 (7.26)	13	8	4	76	14
Baylor	1 (57.4)	1 (8.36)	1	1	1	102	1
Michigan State	44 (33.4)	51 (5.81)	12	16	34	27	16
TCU	2 (48.9)	2 (7.73)	3	3	2	60	3
Iowa	48 (32.6)	54 (5.77)	43	45	41	38	42
Florida	57 (31)	71 (5.62)	46	70	43	108	61
Stanford	23 (36.5)	25 (6.57)	7	5	20	42	6
Utah	41 (33.8)	72 (5.61)	45	43	76	17	37
Memphis	3 (47.9)	21 (6.70)	9	9	14	26	10
Oklahoma State	8 (44)	26 (6.54)	18	24	36	64	12
Oklahoma	7 (45.6)	9 (6.93)	10	14	15	123	8
Florida State	47 (32.8)	18 (6.77)	15	26	24	37	21

The most common theme was offensive efficiency, in which 12 of the 16 teams were ranked in the top 25. Efficient offenses come in all forms. Baylor, on one hand, is efficient in generating explosive plays. But an offense can still be efficient by chewing up clock and wearing down defenses on extended drives. The style may differ, but the outcome doesn't. 

It's not surprising, then, that those same 12 teams met the criteria for being elite in points per drive. For context, Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer told Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports that points per possession is one of the most important stats out there. 

Another interesting trend was explosiveness in offensive possessions. Ten teams ranked 25th or higher there. Fewer plays mean fewer opportunities for mistakes. The more an offense can pick up yards and/or points in chunks, the better. 

Some of the numbers make sense. Baylor's offense is so good a true freshman No. 2 quarterback, Jarrett Stidham, can play right away with immediate success. Other numbers are more curious. Florida State's offense has been visually tough to watch. Quarterback, wide receiver and offensive line play have been iffy. Yet, the Seminoles statistically have one of the better offenses in college football. 

Defenses

The one thing that generally held true about teams without an elite offense (Alabama, Florida, Iowa, Michigan State and Utah) is they have a top-flight defense. The Tide, Gators and Hawkeyes didn't score particularly well in offensive categories, but they were leaders in the same categories on defense. Their top-10 rankings are entirely justified, then. 

Team	Scoring Defense (points)	Yards per play (yards)	DFEI/DE	DAY	DEx	DMe	DPD
Clemson	18 (17.6)	8 (4.35)	6	2	44	1	4
LSU	49 (22.6)	25 (4.81)	39	27	41	18	36
Ohio State	5 (15.1)	10 (4.40)	9	5	28	26	7
Alabama	11 (16.4)	3 (4.16)	1	1	8	7	2
Notre Dame	39 (22.3)	58 (5.49)	61	31	72	21	44
Baylor	58 (25.0)	39 (5.02)	41	43	22	24	35
Michigan State	37 (22.1)	60 (5.50)	44	58	59	113	40
TCU	53 (24.5)	41 (5.13)	70	62	74	78	69
Iowa	6 (15.3)	9 (4.36)	3	8	21	61	9
Florida	7 (15.5)	17 (4.66)	12	12	23	20	13
Stanford	33 (21.5)	42 (5.15)	43	36	6	109	38
Utah	32 (21.4)	44 (5.22)	23	40	10	69	23
Memphis	63 (26.6)	81 (5.78)	78	65	115	97	68
Oklahoma State	45 (23.1)	26 (4.83)	30	26	24	90	31
Florida State	12 (16.8)	30 (4.87)	21	25	39	42	17

Overall, the defensive numbers weren't as stout for our playoff contenders. However, three areas keep arising as the most common indicator for success: defensive efficiency, defending explosive drives and defensive points per drive. Eight playoff-caliber teams ranked 25th or higher in those categories. 

Raw stats like defensive points per game ranged from 15.1 (Ohio State) to 26.6 (Memphis). Only nine teams allow fewer than five yards per play. 

Those stats are telling, but they can be overcome. It's not necessary anymore to hold opposing offenses to 14 points per game and under 300 yards. Are defenses limiting big plays and giving up fewer points per possession? Those areas, more than anything, define a great defense in a sport where offenses are more prolific than ever. 

Conclusion

There are more elite offenses in college football than elite defenses—at least when it comes to teams legitimately vying for a playoff spot through 10 weeks. What does that mean for the remainder of the season?

Expect a ton of yards, points and a whole lot of fun. Here's the schedule for key games involving current playoff contenders: 

Game	Elite Offense?	Elite Defense?
Florida State at Clemson (Nov. 7)	No/No	Yes/No
TCU at Oklahoma State (Nov. 7)	Yes/No	No/No
LSU at Alabama (Nov. 7)	Yes/No	No/Yes
Oklahoma at Baylor (Nov. 14)	Yes/Yes	Yes/No
TCU at Oklahoma (Nov. 21)	Yes/Yes	No/Yes
Baylor at Oklahoma State (Nov. 21)	Yes/No	No/No
Michigan State at Ohio State (Nov. 21)	No/Yes	No/Yes
Baylor at TCU (Nov. 27)	Yes/Yes	No/No
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (Nov. 28)	Yes/No	Yes/No
Florida State at Florida (Nov. 28)	No/No	No/Yes
Notre Dame at Stanford (Nov. 28)	Yes/Yes	No/No

It's possible a more defensive-minded team like Alabama, Florida or Iowa makes the playoff. The Tide don't control their own destiny in the SEC West, but Florida can lock up the SEC East against Vanderbilt on Saturday. Iowa doesn't face a team with a winning record for the rest of the regular season. Assuming the Gators and Hawkeyes win out, it really does boil down to a one-game season in their respective conference title games. That's a good spot to be in. 

However, the odds of an offensive-minded team making the playoff are greater simply because more of them exist in the playoff conversation. The Big 12, for example, is full of offense-heavy teams ready to square off against one another in consecutive weeks. Interestingly, Oklahoma, the only one-loss team from the Big 12 in the playoff discussion, is the lone team with an elite offense and elite defense. Still, get ready for points on points on more points. 

In conclusion, if you enjoy offense, the next five weeks, and then the final three games of the postseason, are going to be good to you. 

*We measured only the CFP Top 16 because last year's national champion, Ohio State, began the rankings at No. 16. Thus, it is the "floor" that's been set.

**OFEI/OE=offensive efficiency; OAY=offensive available yards; OEx=offensive explosive drives; OMe=offensive methodical drives; PPD=points per drive; DFEI/DE=defensive efficiency; DAY=Defensive available yards; DEx=explosive drives allowed; DMe=methodical drives allowed; DPD=points per drive allowed. For a more detailed explanation on what these mean, visit Football Outsiders and BCF Toys.

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All stats courtesy of cfbstats, Football Outsiders and BCF Toys.