For Dreamers: Echoes Of Famous Merkle Game In Cubs Win

The Cardinals' magic number to eliminate the Cubs from contention for the 2009 National league Central Division title is still at four, with a combined 26 games remaining on the two teams' schedules.

By the reckoning of Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA-adjusted playoff odds report, the Cubs had only a .00180 percent chance to steal the Division at the beginning of their Sunday night contest in St. Louis.

But for those who believe in this kind of thing, something happened in the bottom of the ninth inning of that contest that changes things, if only intangibly.

In that ninth inning, with the bases loaded in a tie game and just one out, the Cardinals' Ryan Ludwick bounced a sharp ground ball to second baseman Andres Blanco. Blanco, a stellar fielder, flipped the ball deftly to shortstop Ryan Theriot.

Theriot, perhaps rushing to complete a game-saving double play, threw wide of first base, and when first baseman Derrek Lee's swipe tag missed Ludwick, the Cardinals appeared to have won. The bench emptied as the team made to swarm outfielder Matt Holliday, who had forced Theriot's miscue by bearing down hard on him at second base.

But the Cubs didn't vacate the field to accommodate St. Louis' romp. Manager Lou Piniella began a slow walk toward second base, where Theriot and Blanco had engaged second base umpire Marty foster in a protest. Foster began waving his arms, gesturing the Cardinals back toward their first-base dugout. And just like that, the win was gone.

Holliday, as it turned out, had slid too wide of second in his effort to break up the double play. By failing to come within an arm's reach of the bag, he made automatic the twin killing the Cubs had been unable to complete. The out at first counted after all, and the inning was over without the winning run scoring.

Chicago and St. Louis each went silently in the tenth, but in the eleventh, Jake Fox hit a two-run home run that put the Cubs on top for good. Another run scored on a wild pitch as the Cardinals' relievers came visibly undone, and the Cards would not score in their half against Cubs closer Carlos Marmol.

The significance of this is, on first examination, minimal. It's too little, too late. The Cubs still trail St. Louis by ten games, and still have internal problems galore--witness their suspension before Sunday's game of outfielder Milton Bradley, whom the team sent home for the remainder of the year.

Yet, for those who know their Cubs history, the game holds an eerie sort of familiarity. More than a century ago, 101 years ago this Wednesday in fact, another Cubs team played a game on the road. It, too, had its back to the wall, playing the team it trailed in the pennant race and on the verge of losing to that team. It, too, faced a tie game in the bottom of the ninth inning, and it, too, apparently lost the game, at least for a while.

On that occasion, the Cubs played at the Polo Grounds in New York, against the rival Giants. New York's Al Bridwell lined a base hit up the middle with the game tied and runners on the corners, and the Giants supporters rushed the field to celebrate a walk-off win.

But Cubs second baseman Johnny Evers appealed to the umpire, Hank O'Day. He claimed that Fred Merkle, the Giants' rookie first baseman, had never touched second base, which he was required to do since an out recorded at second would have been a force and negated the run scored by third baseman Moose McCormick.

O'Day was smart enough not to rule on the play in the midst of the pro-New York crowd. Later that night, though, he reported that Merkle was, indeed, out, and that the game would have to replayed if the two teams remained tied at season's end.

The rest is history: the tie happened; the game happened; the Cubs won, and went on to win what would be their last World Series for (at least) 101 years. And Fred Merkle sank into infamy without ever achieving merciful obscurity.

This situation is different: Chicago's chances are exponentially smaller than they were then. Matt Holliday is in no danger of being ostracized for life. And the Cardinals should win the Division easily, despite the setback.

Then again, though, they came unglued after the would-be walk-off was overturned. And the Cubs can't help but gain confidence from the swing of momentum.

The Cubs rescued Fred Merkle from New York in 1917, and he played four seasons in Chicago. Perhaps that bought them a bit of Merkle Magic. If so, they had better let it all out of the bottle now.