Bowl Predictions 2015: CFP Projections Ahead of Week 10's Biggest Clashes
This week has finally allowed us to fully embrace what makes college football so much fun: arguing in the middle of the season about an arbitrary poll.
The College Football Playoff committee unveiled its rankings Tuesday, and while the poll will ultimately determine who plays in the national semifinals, it has little impact for the time being with the playoff so far away:
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
For a frame of reference, Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn and Ole Miss made up the top four of last year's first CFP poll. Only the Seminoles actually made the playoff, and Ohio State, the eventual national champion, climbed all the way up from 16th to fourth by the end of the regular season.
Suffice it to say, the top four this week will look a lot different at various points throughout the year.
The four teams listed below look to be the strongest contenders to make the playoff.
College Football Playoff Projections
| National Semifinals | |||
| Dec. 31, 2015 | Orange Bowl | No. 1 Seed vs. No. 4 Seed | Clemson vs. Alabama |
| Dec. 31, 2015 | Cotton Bowl | No. 2 Seed vs. No. 3 Seed | Ohio State vs. TCU |
| Selection Committee Bowls | |||
| Dec. 31, 2015 | Peach Bowl | At-large vs. At-large | Florida vs. Houston |
| Jan. 1, 2016 | Sugar Bowl | Big 12 vs. SEC | Baylor vs. LSU |
| Jan. 1, 2016 | Rose Bowl | Big Ten vs. Pac-12 | Michigan State vs. Utah |
| Jan. 1, 2016 | Fiesta Bowl | At-large vs. At-large | Iowa vs. Notre Dame |
Top-Four Favorites
Ohio State: Survive and Advance
Ohio State can win every game between now and the end of the regular season on a last-second Hail Mary—after coming back from a 30-point deficit—and the Buckeyes will still have earned a top-four spot.
To a certain extent, a champion's advantage isn't a bad thing, especially when the reigning champion in question returned so many key players from the previous year. As middling as OSU has looked at times, the committee can't keep the Bucks out if they run the table and win the Big Ten.
And the chances Ohio State does win out the rest of the way are extremely high. The Buckeyes' toughest remaining tests are at home to Michigan State, which should've lost to Michigan and beat both Purdue and Rutgers by a combined 10 points, and Michigan, which relies on Jake Rudock and Wilton Speight at quarterback.
The reigning champs looked to have turned a corner with J.T. Barrett at QB. He may be suspended for the Minnesota game, but he'll be free to resume starting duties next week versus Illinois, thus allowing him a week to prepare for the Spartans and Wolverines.
Ohio State wouldn't automatically lay claim to the top seed with a 13-0 record, but a national semifinals berth would be the team's deserved reward.
Death, Taxes and Alabama in the National Championship Picture
A number of fans were up in arms about the committee's decision to include Alabama in the top four of the initial CFP rankings.
Smart Football's Chris B. Brown used the occasion to argue the current playoff format may not be as effective as first hoped at sorting out deserving candidates:
"Yet the new College Football Playoff lacks the very thing that makes playoffs in other sports so palatable, namely a semblance of objective certainty. While the defective BCS formula should have been interred long ago, it has been replaced by a Council of Platonic Guardians. The College Football Playoff selection committee will meet confidentially, then announce the identities of the playoff participants by edict. That's not exactly what I'd call "settling it on the field."
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TCU and Baylor both have great cases to be in the top four, but putting the Crimson Tide at No. 4 wasn't entirely without merit, either, as ESPN Stats & Info illustrated:
Plus, getting too upset about Alabama's ranking is somewhat fruitless right now anyway.
Either the Tide will beat LSU on Saturday, thus truly proving they're deserving of a playoff spot, or they'll lose to the Tigers and fall out of the top four, likely for the remainder season.
In addition, those up in arms about how "Alabama would be in the playoff ahead of the Bears or Horned Frogs if the season ended right now" are arguing a nonexistent hypothetical. They might as well rail against how Auburn was be going to the Sugar Bowl if the season ended with the unveiling of the preseason Associated Press Poll.
Aside from Clemson, no team is more complete on both sides of the ball than Alabama. If they win out, the Crimson Tide will have more than proved themselves worthy of a playoff spot.
TCU is the 'One True Champion'
No conference received a harsher deal than the Big 12 with the initial CFP rankings. Both Baylor and TCU could conceivably be in the top four, and instead, the Bears and Horned Frogs are both on the outside looking in.
As ESPN.com's Jake Trotter highlighted, however, everything should work out for the Big 12 by the time the regular season is over:
Plus, the conference will actually have one recognized champion, unlike last year when Baylor and TCU shared the honor. That step should ensure the Big 12 has a representative in the national semifinals.
The question is whether Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State will ultimately get the nod.
The Sooners haven't looked all that convincing, not to mention they play the Bears and Cowboys on the road later this month.
Baylor, meanwhile, is bedding in a freshman quarterback with three Top 25 opponents still on the schedule. Jarrett Stidham is a talented passer, but it's asking a lot of him to make a seamless transition into a starting role at this stage of the year.
Oklahoma State has the easiest road, with Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma all making the trip to Stillwater, Oklahoma. But the Cowboys haven't beaten any top-quality opposition, with the victories over West Virginia and Kansas State looking slightly worse in retrospect.
That leaves the Horned Frogs, who are the most complete team in the Big 12. TCU's defense has looked somewhat shaky, but the unit is stronger than that of Baylor, while Oklahoma State and Oklahoma won't keep up with a Trevone Boykin-led offense.
No Pressure, Clemson. Just Don't Blow It
Back in October, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney railed against what he felt was disrespect directed toward his team:
Swinney had a point—to a certain extent. The Tigers have been one of the strongest—if not the strongest—team in college football this season, but that doesn't mean they've above criticism for the program's past record.
Clemson is 10-16 against ranked teams under Swinney and has lost five of its last eight Top 25 matchups. The Tigers are almost the anti-Alabama in that they continually miss out on the national championship, and you can count on them suffering one or two crippling defeats.
Clemson has a chance to turn that narrative around this weekend, and beating Florida State would represent a form of catharsis, especially if the Tigers go on to win a national championship.
The Seminoles are also the toughest team Clemson has left on the schedule. The Tigers finish up the regular season with Syracuse, Wake Forest and South Carolina, none of which should pose a strong test. The ACC's Atlantic Division isn't exactly a murderer's row of potential opponents in the conference title game, either.
Florida State is the biggest hurdle for Clemson en route to a playoff spot, and a win would be enormous for Swinney and his players.
Of course, a loss would mean the Tigers have to deal with even more questions about whether they'll ever get over the hump and become a true championship contender.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
