Biggest Surprises from College Football Playoff Committee's Rankings
Although the rankings that matter don't come out for several more weeks, that didn't stop the college football world from devouring the first College Football Playoff Top 25 for the 2015 season, which was released Tuesday night.
The committee wasted no time in causing a firestorm with its initial rankings, prompting shouts of #SECbias and all-around disrespect from several fanbases across the country.
These rankings had several notable surprises, especially in the coveted top six—the teams that get the special spots on the mock bracket during the ESPN broadcast. While most of these early disputes will work themselves out in the all-important month of November, the Top 25 gave everyone a glimpse at what the committee values most when determining who's in and who's out.
Here are five of the biggest surprises from the initial Top 25, which include a couple of higher-ranking household names and a soaring team that isn't a member of a traditional power conference.
If these surprising Top 25 rankings were just devices to generate more interest in upcoming games and spark heated arguments, consider that mission fully accomplished. Continue the debate over the most surprising calls in the comments below.
Alabama at No. 4
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It was ranking that caused the most extreme reactions and flared up the hottest of takes Tuesday night: One-loss Alabama currently sits in a projected playoff spot at No. 4 in the country.
Nick Saban's Crimson Tide are ranked ahead of five undefeated Power Five teams, and they lost at home to a team that the committee currently views as the No. 18 team in the country. It was a bizarre, turnover-filled loss to Ole Miss, sure, but it's a loss that didn't seem to hurt Alabama at all in the initial rankings.
That's the same Ole Miss team, by the way, that Florida crushed at home. But the Gators, whose only loss came on the road against No. 2 LSU, are somehow six spots behind Alabama. As Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee noted Wednesday, Alabama's "best win" according to the current rankings isn't incredibly impressive.
"Spare me the talk of 'top-10 Georgia and Texas A&M on the road,'" Sallee wrote. "Yes, those teams were ranked in the top 10 of other polls at the time they played, but the Aggies are 19th in the first edition of the CFP poll, and Georgia is an abject disaster."
Alabama's place as a top-four team would receive more justification this weekend if the Tide knocked off undefeated No. 2 LSU. But, right now, the Tide's resume doesn't look deserving of its high place in the initial rankings.
Notre Dame at No. 5
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Another one-loss powerhouse that received a boost from the committee Tuesday night was none other than Notre Dame, which comes in at No. 5 in the country.
That No. 5 spot is quite significant, especially with two of the four teams ahead of the Irish set to square off this weekend in a huge matchup. If the committee sticks with this logic, Notre Dame should be playoff-bound if it gets through the rest of its season without a loss.
When it comes to a "best loss" among the teams that have already tasted defeat, Notre Dame is in the best position possible. It lost to the committee's No. 1 team, Clemson, by two points—away from home—in the middle of a hurricane.
While Notre Dame's best win at this point is last weekend's close victory at previously undefeated Group of Five foe Temple, the Irish have a couple more opportunities to pick up good-looking victories down the stretch of its regular season. Notre Dame plays at Pittsburgh, which just dropped out of the Top 25 this past weekend, and at Stanford, which is ranked No. 11 by the playoff committee.
Some of Notre Dame's early-season home wins over the likes of Texas, Georgia Tech and USC didn't exactly pan out in terms of resume-building, but the schedule was still enough to put the Irish in a surprising and enviable position in the November playoff race.
Baylor at No. 6
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If strength of schedule and the hotly debated concept of "quality wins" were the reasons to put Alabama and Notre Dame ahead of several undefeated teams, then why is Baylor the highest-ranked among those perfect programs?
While Baylor has the nation's deadliest offense and an improved defense, the Bears' opponents so far this season don't measure up to the ones from Michigan State, Iowa and even Big 12 rival TCU. Jerry Palm of CBS Sports compared Baylor's strength of schedule so far this season to that of Houston, a Group of Five team anchoring the rankings at No. 25.
"My biggest criticism of the committee this week, though, has to do with Baylor entering at No. 6," Palm wrote. "If strength of schedule means anything at all, that selection is indefensible. ... Yes, Baylor should be ahead of Houston—but not by 19 spots—and they should not be ahead of the the six teams ranked immediately behind them...at a minimum."
Baylor's schedule, of course, is quite back-loaded, with games in November against TCU, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma—three teams currently ranked in the committee's Top 15. If the Bears continue to light up the scoreboard with a new quarterback and win the rest of their games, they should firmly be in the playoff picture.
But putting Baylor, whose true road games have been against teams with a combined record of 1-15, over a Michigan State team with a road win over Michigan and an Iowa team with road wins over Wisconsin and Northwestern is baffling right now, if the committee truly places a high value on strength of schedule.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Memphis at No. 13
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Memphis made some history Tuesday night by debuting in the 2015 College Football Playoff rankings at No. 13 in the country, which is the highest-ever spot for a team outside the Power Five conferences, according to ESPN College Football Insider Brett McMurphy.
The committee didn't give much love to the Group of Five conferences last season in their rankings, as only five such teams made the Top 25 in 2014. On Tuesday, four made the initial cut, although No. 24 Toledo made that mark obsolete a few hours later by losing at home to Northern Illinois.
Memphis was by far the biggest winner of the Group of Five teams, coming in a few spots higher than its rankings in both the Associated Press and Amway Coaches polls. And, as Bleacher Report's Bryan Fischer wrote Tuesday night, the Tigers could have a case for an even higher spot in the rankings.
"Memphis has a pair of wins over Power Five teams, including a trump card on every squad outside of maybe Clemson; one of those wins came against the Rebels, who have a victory at Alabama," Fischer wrote. "The Tigers have also dispatched the preseason favorite in their American Athletic Conference, Cincinnati, and Bowling Green, which may wind up as the MAC champion."
The Tigers are still long shots for the playoff, but their somewhat-higher-than-expected ranking means they could make a serious move if a good bit of chaos happens in front of them. After all, winning a conference that currently has more Top 25 teams than the ACC and just as many as the Pac-12 has never looked better.
Northwestern at No. 21 (and an Unranked North Carolina)
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The two major polls and the playoff committee agreed on most of the teams that should garner Top 25 rankings at this point in the season—with one notable exception.
"Only team outside the AP top 25 that's in playoff top 25 is Northwestern. UNC out.
— Matt Brown (@MattBrownCFB) November 4, 2015"
While a surprise in the Nos. 20-25 range doesn't have the same amount of importance as one in the Top 10, North Carolina's absence shows what the committee thinks of the Tar Heels, who could run the table in the ACC and hit the postseason as an 11-2 or even a 12-1 team.
Right now, six two-loss teams are ranked, while one-loss UNC sits on the outside. The Tar Heels' loss is a bad one—a close, neutral-site game against a now 3-5 South Carolina program that featured three interceptions in the end zone—but should it weigh more than two blowout losses?
Even with a bizarre home win over Stanford, Northwestern isn't in the AP or Coaches Top 25 after two losses to Michigan and Iowa came by a combined score of 78-10. North Carolina, which has allowed more than 19 points just once this season, lost to South Carolina by a score of 17-13.
Someone needs to double-check the committee's scales for these two teams.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
