College Football Playoff 2015: Final Four Predictions After 1st Top 25 Rankings

The first College Football Playoff rankings released Tuesday in what amounted to great theater among the social realms, as the Top Four are in a completely different order from the Associated Press Top 25 and Amway Coaches Poll. 

Not to much surprise, Clemson and LSU swept the top two spots. Both Tigers teams are arguably the most complete in college football and have meaningful wins to show for it, per ESPN Stats & Info:

Most dramatic in Tuesday's revealings were one-loss Alabama and Notre Dame exceeding eight unbeatens, coming in fourth and fifth, respectively. Baylor is sixth despite ranking No. 2 in the current AP poll with its FBS-best 61.1 points per game. But the committee sent a meaningful message that strength of schedule has and will continue to be the chief determining factor. 

Here is a look at the full CFP rankings:

CFP chair Jeff Long told the ESPN panel during Tuesday’s telecast the toughest teams to decipher were two from the Big 12:    

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It’s Baylor and it’s TCU because of their strength of schedule and who they played thus far. I think those teams, particularly Baylor, has an explosive offense and we’ve seen that. But I think their strength of schedule has left us uncertain of their true strength. 

Really, it came down to evaluating their résumés, what they’ve done, who they’ve beaten and how they played in those games.

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The AP’s Jay Cohen was among those not thrilled with the pecking order:

It’s important to keep the initial rankings in perspective—eight of the CFP Top 11 still play opponents among those ranks before the final rankings release. ESPN host Rece Davis offered reassurance to those voicing frustration in the social realms:

With the playoff picture starting to mold, here are projections for the New Year's Eve semifinal games.

PROJECTION: Cotton Bowl – No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State

Of the current Top Four, Clemson has the easiest road to the playoff. The Tigers play No. 16 Florida State in Week 10, three unranked teams after and then an ACC title game, likely against North Carolina. 

The Tigers rank fifth in total defense (278 yards per game) and 11th in scoring offense (40.6 points), creating a balance that's catapulted Clemson to outscore opponents, 355-141. 

Long gave conviction why Clemson was the committee’s top choice, per Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports:

The Buckeyes have had a cakewalk thus far, leaving their fate to the back end of their schedule with road games against No. 7 Michigan State and No. 17 Michigan to finish the regular season. It’s difficult to imagine winning both, and losing to the Spartans could squander their hopes of playing for the Big 10 championship. 

A rugged win in East Lansing will cripple the Buckeyes the following week in Ann Arbor, but Ohio State will rebound to win the conference crown, likely against No. 9 Iowa. The respectable finish coupled with a status as defending champs with much of its 2014 roster still in tact will narrowly send the Buckeyes to their second straight playoff as the lowest seed. Mark Schlabach of ESPN agreed:

Some have criticized Ohio State for not blowing out teams the way it's supposed to, but a closer look at the numbers says otherwise. The Buckeyes have outscored opponents 308-121 or 38.5-15.1 per game. Wins by an average of 23 points—up from their 22.25 margin in 2014—are impressive, particularly given a quarterback carousel between Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett.

The Buckeyes will be without Barrett in Week 10 vs. Minnesota after the sophomore was suspended one game for an arrest for operating a motor vehicle while impaired. They should be fine with Jones, who is 10-0 as a starter, including last year's title run.

PROJECTION: Orange Bowl – No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 6 Baylor

Cooper Neill/Getty Images

There was uproar at the committee including Alabama among the initial Top Four, but the Crimson Tide will prove why the committee ranked them there. 

After an early hiccup to No. 18 Ole Miss, Alabama has churned out five straight wins and is hitting championship form—typical of a Nick Saban-coached team in November. Up next: a colossal game against fellow playoff contender LSU in what will likely determine the SEC West—as it has in nine of the last 15 seasons. The SEC Network shared the added emphasis for Saturday's game:

In a squeaker, Alabama will get its fifth straight win over LSU in what’s become one of college football’s greatest rivalries from a sheer standpoint of championship implications. 

Tigers Heisman Trophy front-runner Leonard Fournette has been sensational—an FBS-best 1,352 rush yards and 15 touchdowns—but he'll be limited against the SEC’s best run-defense, putting pressure on quarterback Brandon Harris and LSU’s aerial attack, which ranks last in the conference. 

Harris has improved in his last three starts—716 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions—but the Tigers still rank dead last in SEC passing defense. 

Alabama will be LSU’s only hiccup, but it’ll be costly. Despite what ESPN’s Football Power Index indicated as the most difficult remaining schedule, according to David Ching of ESPN, the Tigers should run the table the rest of the way. But so should the Crimson Tide, who as a one-loss SEC champion will reach their second straight playoff. 

Despite being left out, Baylor still has the chance to woo the 12-person committee against No. 8 TCU on Nov. 27. The Bears will run the table and continue to put up points, while the rest of those ahead in the rankings will tumble, giving Baylor a narrow nod to reach, per Schlabach:

The Bears will be without starting quarterback and offensive catalyst Seth Russell, whom they lost for the season to a neck fracture. But Baylor should be in good shape with backup true freshman Jarrett Stidham, per Adam Rittenberg of ESPN.com:

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Six coaches who recruited Stidham or have watched tape of him in games this season weighed in anonymously on Baylor's new signal-caller, his prodigious potential and what to watch as he takes the reins later this week. Their overwhelming sentiment: The Bears should be just fine.

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The Bears are just the second team in the modern era to score at least 50 in five straight games, according to ESPN.com, and their average of 61.1 points per game will be too remarkable to ignore.