Florida State vs. Clemson Complete Game Preview
Both teams might not be undefeated at this point in the season, but the annual Clemson vs. Florida State clash will have the usual ACC and national championship implications when the two square off Saturday in Death Valley.
This time around, Clemson is the favorite with the perfect record. Dabo Swinney's Tigers are playing some of the best ball of anyone in college football with a high-powered offense led by Heisman candidate Deshaun Watson and a fierce defense that has performed above expectations in 2015.
The visitors, Florida State, are still quite dangerous—even after their heartbreaking loss to Georgia Tech a couple of weeks ago. Jimbo Fisher's team overcame plenty of injuries to record an impressive bounce-back win over Syracuse that has sparked some quarterback controversy between Everett Golson and Sean Maguire.
The winner of this matchup has gone on to win the ACC Atlantic Division for the last few years, and Clemson is eyeing an end to Florida State's run of dominance atop the conference. One thing is for sure—this game should be one of the best in a weekend filled with top-notch college football.
Here's all the basic info you need to know about this edition of the Clemson-FSU rivalry.
Date: Saturday, November 7
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Memorial Stadium (Clemson, South Carolina)
TV: ABC
Line: Clemson -12, according to Odds Shark
Florida State Keys to Victory
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Stretch the field on Clemson
Clemson's defense is excellent once again this season under talented coordinator Brent Venables, but it isn't without its weak spots. Last Saturday's game against NC State shone a light on an area where the Tigers have struggled in their closer wins of 2015—downfield passing.
As I wrote Monday, Clemson allowed at least 250 yards and three passes of 20 or more yards in their victories over Louisville, Notre Dame and now NC State. In their other five wins this season, the Tigers allowed an average of 104.8 yards and fewer than two "chunk" completions.
Florida State showcased a strong downfield passing attack last Saturday against struggling Syracuse with Maguire starting in place of the injured Golson. As the numbers show this season, the best way to attack this stout Tiger defense is to stretch it to its breaking points, and the Seminoles have the skill talent to do that.
Tighten up the rush defense
Florida State's rush defense started off the season on a tear, but it hasn't been up to its usual form in the last two weeks. It allowed a season-high 5.33 yards per carry against option-running Georgia Tech and allowed 4.12 per carry with two touchdowns against Syracuse.
Clemson has been run-heavier this season, and its last two weekends have featured excellent performances on the ground. The Tigers rushed for 416 yards and six touchdowns against hapless Miami before posting 240 yards and two touchdowns against NC State last weekend.
A lot has been made of Watson's efficient passing, but he has rushed for a touchdown in four of his last five games alongside Wayne Gallman, who had a season high in yards last Saturday. Any defensive success for Florida State must start with slowing down Clemson's ground game.
Win the special teams battle
Both Clemson and Florida State are coming off less-than-stellar performances in special teams. Florida State allowed a punt return for a touchdown, and the combination of kicker Roberto Aguayo and punter Cason Beatty has not been consistent in 2015.
Aguayo, who had his long field goal blocked and returned for a game-winning touchdown in the loss to Georgia Tech, missed a 41-yarder against Syracuse. It marked the first time he had missed consecutive kicks in his career, and he's now 1-of-5 this season on attempts longer than 40 yards.
As underdogs away from home, the Seminoles must find ways to turn things around on special teams and grab some momentum in their favor Saturday. Florida State has a lot of potential on its special teams unit, and anything from a long field goal to a return touchdown can be crucial difference-makers in matchups like this one.
Clemson Keys to Victory
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Keep the offensive momentum rolling
To say Clemson's offense is clicking right now would be a massive understatement. Since the close win against Notre Dame earlier this season, the Tigers have put up yards and points at a rate few can match in college football.
In their previous four games, the Tigers recorded at least 530 yards of offense. They've scored 50 points in back-to-back games, and Watson has thrown for more than 300 yards in three of their last four contests. And Clemson has done this against some higher-quality defenses, including the nation's No. 1 unit at Boston College.
Florida State's athleticism on defense will challenge the Tigers attack, but it couldn't be in a better position heading into this matchup. The offense won a trap game for Clemson last weekend, and it'll lead the way in the biggest game of the regular season.
Attack the quarterback
Florida State moved the ball efficiently and explosively against Syracuse without Golson, Cook and—perhaps most surprisingly—two starters on the offensive line. That front five will have a much tougher test this week, though, when it faces the pass rush of Clemson.
The Tigers average three sacks per game this season, and they'll look to unleash their full power against Florida State's offensive line this weekend. Defensive end Shaq Lawson is the face of the attack, but Clemson has a variety of ways to get after the quarterback—13 players have recorded a sack in eight games.
Whoever starts at quarterback for Florida State should expect constant pressure from Clemson. Both Golson and Maguire are dangerous when they have time in the pocket, so look for the Tigers to crank up the heat from the opening snap of this one.
Slam the door on third down
Clemson's third-down defense is the best in the country heading into Week 10, as opponents have converted a little more than 21 percent of their chances against the Tigers.
That kind of efficiency on crucial downs will be a huge advantage for Clemson on Saturday. Florida State's offense is banged up and may have to give several players their first road starts of the season in Death Valley. During the loss at Georgia Tech, FSU went 2-of-10 on third downs.
Florida State's offense will look to consistently move the chains early on against Clemson and settle things down with sustained drives. In that case, the best thing Clemson's defense can do is force the Seminoles into third-down situations and show why it's the best in the country at forcing punts.
Florida State Players to Watch
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The starting quarterback
Will it be Golson or Maguire? Golson hasn't necessarily done anything to lose the job, and his replacement looked great against a terrible Syracuse defense.
Maguire did more in the vertical passing game than Golson had in most of his time as the Florida State starter thanks in large part to Fisher's willingness to open up the playbook with the longtime backup. Golson has plenty of experience playing in big games from his time at Notre Dame, and his track record with ball security is nothing to scoff at this season.
Either way, don't expect Fisher to reveal his decision until we get much closer to Saturday. That bit of gamesmanship will give FSU an advantage against this Clemson defense.
RB Dalvin Cook
No matter if Golson or Maguire starts under center, the Seminoles aren't at full strength offensively unless they have Dalvin Cook storming his way out of the backfield. When healthy, Cook has been one of the nation's best running backs this season, but he missed the Syracuse game after getting banged up some more against Georgia Tech.
"He is healing up," Fisher said, per Seminoles.com. "Dalvin is a miraculous guy, but we’ll have to wait and see. … We don’t know if Dalvin will play."
If Cook is unable to go against Clemson, the main running back duties will fall on true freshman Jacques Patrick, who had a breakout performance against Syracuse. But Cook will have a big impact on his game, either by his presence or by his absence.
S Derwin James
If you're looking for an impact player to go up against Clemson's dual-threat, high-powered offense, look no further than true freshman safety Derwin James.
James is coming off the best game of his young career in which he led the team in tackles, had two tackles for loss and forced a fumble from the Orange. He's a key presence in both pass coverage and run support, and the Seminoles aren't afraid of sending him to the opposing backfield.
The true freshman is already a leader on this Florida State defense, and he'll receive a ton of spotlight in his first big matchup against Clemson. How he follows up a great game against Syracuse will have a lot of influence on how Florida State is able to handle the Tigers attack.
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Clemson Players to Watch
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QB Deshaun Watson
Deshaun Watson had his coming-out party as a freshman against Florida State last season, going 19-of-28 for 266 yards in a close overtime loss. The next week, he obliterated the North Carolina defense and became a household name.
With the exception of the Notre Dame game, a now-healthy Watson has been excellent this season for the Tigers. He's completed 70 percent of his passes and has a touchdown-interception ratio of 20-to-7 through eight games. He's also added four touchdowns on the ground with a rate of almost five yards per carry.
This is a monster game for Clemson as a whole, but it's especially important for Watson. If he has a great performance in a win over the Seminoles, the Tigers will be closer to a possible College Football Playoff berth, and he'll solidify himself as a strong Heisman contender.
DE Shaq Lawson
Shaq Lawson is Clemson's master of sacks, and he might just be the master of smack (talk), too—take a look at his quote on the next slide.
On the field, though, Lawson is one of the nation's best defensive ends. He was a solid contributor alongside NFL first-round pick Vic Beasley last season, and he has taken over the role as the leader of a Clemson defense that has been much stronger than many expected in 2015.
Lawson will undoubtedly be the one to watch on this Clemson defensive front as it goes up against a Florida State offensive line that is inexperienced in big-game situations and has had to deal with some injuries in recent weeks.
CB Mackensie Alexander
If Florida State emphasizes that vertical passing game against Clemson, keep an eye on how often they throw in the direction of Mackenzie Alexander.
The Clemson cornerback called himself the nation's best cornerback in the preseason, per Jared Shanker of ESPN.com, putting himself over the likes of Florida State's Jalen Ramsey and Virginia Tech's Kendall Fuller. On Saturday, Alexander will get a chance to prove his worth as Ramsey lines up against his teammates at wide receiver.
Alexander notably shut down Notre Dame wide receiver Will Fuller during the Tigers' win over the Fighting Irish earlier in the season. He'll most likely be tasked with slowing down Florida State leading receiver Travis Rudolph, who had a huge three-touchdown performance against Syracuse last weekend.
What They're Saying
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Florida State
Head coach Jimbo Fisher on playing in Clemson's Memorial Stadium, per Seminoles.com:
"It’s a great environment to play a college football game. It’s one of the best. It really is. ... You know the toughest places to play? The ones that have real good players. They’ve got real good players, too.
"
Wide receiver Bobo Wilson on Florida State's quarterback situation, per Brendan Sonnone of the Orlando Sentinel:
"We all have the chemistry with Sean. And we all have the chemistry with Everett. It's not that big of a difference. ... [Maguire] got the win versus Clemson last year. That was a bigger game [than Syracuse.] I'm not surprised at all."
Linebacker Reggie Northrup on the importance of Florida State's defense this season, per Safid Deen of the Tallahassee Democrat:
"We have to cue the edge on our team. If something does happen where the offense not being able to score or (are short on) possessions, we’re still keeping them in the game.
"
Clemson
Head coach Dabo Swinney on moving on from the NC State game to face Florida State, per Brad Senkiw of the Independent Mail:
"We didn’t have our best night defensively, but the offense didn’t get frustrated. They just kept playing. Even though the momentum was all against them several times, none more so than right there at the end of the first half when they had the lead and we scored in about 15 seconds. To see them answer all night and not flinch was huge. ... We’ve got a great opportunity this week with Florida State. This is a huge game for both teams. We all know what’s at stake.
"
Quarterback Deshaun Watson on staying calm before such a big game, per Aaron Brenner of the Post and Courier:
"I always grew up calm. I don’t let anything bother me. I just do what I have to do. I’m confident in myself, confident in my team. There’s no point in being rattled by pressure because I know the plan, I know my skill set, I know what I can do.
"
Defensive end Shaq Lawson on Florida State running back Dalvin Cook, per CUTigers.com:
"@Shaq_Lawson90 "We're going to show Dalvin Cook why he should have come to Clemson by the end of the night." pic.twitter.com/X0tZSNpkXP
— CUTigers.com (@CUTigers_com) November 2, 2015"
Prediction
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With the way Florida State has looked this season and the amount of injuries it could—or could not—be dealing with right now, this is a difficult matchup to accurately predict.
Clemson's offense should be able to move the ball against a Florida State defense that, while quite talented, is prone to breakdowns due to its youth and health status. A run-first mentality will serve the Tigers well, especially with the way Florida State has taken a step back in that category the last two weeks.
If Maguire starts for Florida State at quarterback, I'd feel a lot more confident in the Seminoles' chances of making this an extremely competitive game away from home. He has experience against this Clemson defense from last season and can do things downfield that Golson just hasn't been able to do since he arrived in Tallahassee.
Right now, this one feels like Florida State will either pull off an upset or Clemson will hand the Seminoles a solid loss. With so many uncertainties with the visitors, I'll lean toward the latter.
Clemson, wanting to make a statement in the title races, comes out firing early and puts Florida State in an early hole. The Seminoles' overall talent keeps this game from getting out of hand, but the Tigers are just too much in the end. A focused Clemson team gets a big-time win here.
Prediction: Clemson 38, Florida State 24
All statistics courtesy of CFBStats unless otherwise noted.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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