Why It's Way Too Early to Give Up on the Los Angeles Lakers
LOS ANGELES — One week into the 2015-16 NBA season, no team is more desperate for a mulligan (or three) than the Los Angeles Lakers.
They’ve been terrible, with a defense that somehow looks worse than its 28th ranking and a 16th-ranked offense that’s filled with lifeless possessions. No team is forcing fewer turnovers. No team is passing the ball less. Only two teams have scored a smaller percentage of their points in the paint.
The Lakers don’t hustle in transition or understand their half-court rotations. “Our guys are still trying to get our terminology,” head coach Byron Scott said at a recent practice. “They’re still trying to understand our rotations. It takes time.”
Time is a thin currency right now. This season has been 144 minutes of bubbling frustration, and after three horrendous losses against a trio of flawed Western Conference teams, it’s tempting to label L.A. as the most embarrassing group in basketball; a hopeless, mismanaged and woefully constructed roster that should already cast its eyes on next July’s free agency and try to keep a top-three protected 2016 first-round pick.
But for just a moment, take a deep breath, step away from the table and calmly walk around the block. Despite inessential skill sets and seemingly unbounded weaknesses (wow, that perimeter defense), the Lakers have actual NBA talent on their roster and could very well resemble an actual NBA team before the season is over.
The short-term goal here is to avoid nightly status as a laughingstock. They first need to compete for the sake of competition; nobody mention the playoffs.
This analysis does not ignore a summer full of head-scratching decisions, but the past is the past, and the roster is the roster. These are the players Scott has to work with, and, for what it’s worth, he doesn’t think L.A.’s problems are all that complicated.
“I think we’re all a little frustrated,” Scott said. “We all understand it’s a long season. It’s a long process, and we’ve just got to stick to the script and keep getting better every day. We’ve got a bunch of young guys still learning how to play this game on this level. They’re learning every day you’ve got to bring it. You can’t take plays off. You can’t come into the game not prepared to go hard every single minute that you’re out there, and it really is that simple.”
Youth is both an excuse for Los Angeles’ early trouble and the biggest reason to believe it can turn things around. Let’s start there.
D’Angelo Russell may have a bright future, but his present day is pure gloom. The 19-year-old is shooting 36.7 percent, and only five field-goal attempts have come inside the paint. A passing savant with incredible vision, Russell has five assists and five turnovers in the first 76 minutes of his career. (Roy Hibbert has six assists in one fewer minute of playing time.)
It’s a tough start for a player who’s essentially been thrown into a hothouse, with Scott yanking his franchise point guard from expected on-ball duties to off-ball awkwardness. The good news, if any can be gleamed, is that the second overall pick can’t play any worse than he already has. And right now, his primary focus is on how to handle himself before tipoff even happens.
“[On game day] I work a little too hard and do too much instead of relaxing and getting off my feet,” Russell said. “I’ve got to figure out my routine.”
Game speed, defensive rotations and other NBA complexities will all be learned in time. Russell will be effective once he adjusts, whenever that might be.
On the other side of the spectrum sits Julius Randle, a bruising cyclone who's arguably the team’s best player.
“He’s a gem,” Kobe Bryant said on Sunday night, after Randle became the first player in nearly a year to record at least 22 points, 15 rebounds, four assists and four steals in one game. “He’s one of these players where, a year from now, you’ll see him have an unbelievable jump shot, you’ll see him have an unbelievable right hand. He’s one of these players who’s going to stay in the gym and work on these things and develop them, and then his game is really going to go through the roof.”
At just 20 years old, Randle is not a star, but he creates matchup problems for opposing bigs, particularly those who can’t defend in space. His in-season development is a major bright spot. Same goes for Jordan Clarkson, L.A.’s mini-Monta Ellis—a porous defender who makes up for it by slicing up defenses with a killer in-between game. Clarkson’s shooting an unfathomable 80 percent when he drives to the basket. It’s unsustainable but leads all players who average at least six per game, according to SportVU.
The youngsters provide nice in-house variables to gawk at, but far more important within the context of this season's success is how Scott integrates them with the veterans: Bryant, Brandon Bass, Lou Williams, Hibbert, etc.
L.A.’s roster is filled with overlapping pieces that don’t complement one another other; Scott’s biggest challenge remains digging through the clutter to find a suitable rotation. He isn’t ready to make any knee-jerk reactions after three games, but tinkering with lineup combinations at this stage can't hurt.
“We’re still trying to figure out which lineups are better on the court together,” Williams said.
In a tiny sample size, some groups already look better than others. The starting five—Russell, Jordan Clarkson, Kobe Bryant, Randle and Hibbert—is sewage. They’re getting outscored by 33.8 points per 100 possessions, which is far and away the worst net rating in the league amongst five-man units that have played at least 45 minutes, per NBA.com.
Are there any simple solutions? Not really, but alternatives exist.
One option might be starting Metta World Peace at small forward, shoving Bryant down to 2-guard and pushing Clarkson to the bench—where he better operates as a lead ball-handler. Marcelo Huertas is an ideal backup point guard whose selfless playing style deserves more minutes.
Nick Young is redundant as anything beyond a catch-and-shoot threat, and he is one of the Lakers' most problematic perimeter defenders. Larry Nance Jr. has yet to play a minute and broke his nose during Monday’s practice, but he represents the type of versatile athleticism this team badly needs.
So far, Scott has yet to swap Hibbert with a traditional backup center when the team’s lone source of rim protection needs rest or gets in foul trouble, instead relying on a Ryan Kelly/Bass duo that’s seen just as much time as the starting lineup. The Lakers allow 113 points per 100 possessions with those two on the court. It’s not pretty, and perhaps Tarik Black is due for some playing time.
Beyond the rotations, there are some basic positives to take away from the Lakers playing style, along with a few correctable dilemmas. Let’s start with the good. A surreal 38.6 percent of their shots have come behind the three-point line. Fantastic!
Not so fantastic: They’re shooting 29.1 percent, which would’ve ranked last in the league one season ago. Shots will fall, though.
Bryant is shooting 20.7 from beyond the arc, with a strained calf from the preseason that’s still giving him trouble. Williams is at 26.3 percent. Russell, 26.7 percent. The law of averages says these numbers will normalize as the season goes on, but merely jacking up a bunch of triples is a philosophical step in the right direction.
What stagnates the offense is all the isoball. Only two teams isolate with more frequency than the Lakers, per Synergy Sports. No team is less efficient doing so, and Bryant is the reason why. He’s shooting 2-for-13 in isolation, which ranks last among all players who qualify. These ugly, ball-stopping possessions will cripple the Lakers offense so long as they’re an option, and igniting the attack with pick-and-roll action from Williams—or even Russell—is a solid answer.
(It's early, but only the Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder are more efficient scoring with the ball-handler out of pick-and-roll situations. And only four teams are executing it more often. Do more of this!)
Despite Scott’s optimism, not every problem can be fixed with hard work. Even if every Laker exceeded their highest individual expectations this season, they’d still struggle to find a top-eight record in the brick-oven Western Conference. And if somehow they made the playoffs, nothing more than a first-round sweep would be realistic.
In-season trades are presumably an option, particularly those that let the Lakers exchange veteran production for future assets. Taking the long view, this is wise. The Lakers should try with all their might to keep this year's draft pick, and developing young prospects is the smartest way to do it.
If the personnel stays as is, life will be an uphill climb no matter what strategy the Lakers deploy. But the point-blank talent is here to at least assemble a threatening offense that can strategically outscore lesser teams on any given night.
A cloudy future awaits, and a lot of kinks need fixing. But this Lakers team might not be as bad as they look.
All quotes acquired firsthand unless otherwise noted
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