Bowl Projections 2015: Latest CFP Predictions Before 1st Rankings Reveal
A lot will change as the season progresses, but the first look at the College Football Playoff rankings will be telling.
With a high number of undefeated teams heading into November, the selection committee will have to take a deeper look at resumes for all involved. Teams like Iowa and Oklahoma State, who haven't gotten much respect in polls, could end up higher in the minds of these voters. The same could be said for one-loss teams with obvious talent, such as Alabama, Stanford and Notre Dame.
While the next couple of months should settle some of the debates—like Baylor vs. TCU, Ohio State vs. Michigan State and so on—here is a look at predictions for the top four teams in the first CFP poll of the year. These are not guesses for how the semifinals will look in January but instead what would happen if the season ended today.
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1. Clemson
It is important to avoid a letdown, but Clemson has done everything expected of it so far this season.
Sophomore quarterback DeShaun Watson has been excellent this season as both a passer and a runner, currently ranking second in the country in total QBR behind only Trevone Boykin. The entire team is showcasing a lot of balance, and it is seemingly getting better as the year progresses.
Brian Fremeau of Football Outsiders calculated Clemson as No. 1 in FEI, which accounts for drive efficiency based on opponent and game flow:
Notre Dame is No. 2 on the FEI list, Top 10 in most polls and still in consideration for the playoffs. Clemson beat the Fighting Irish head-to-head, giving the Tigers arguably the best single win of any of the contenders at the moment.
Amazingly, the toughest game left on the schedule is likely this week against Florida State. Then again, the spread indicates it might not even be that close, with Clemson opening as a 12-point favorite, according to Odds Shark.
There might be teams with better history, but Clemson has been the most impressive team in the nation this season.
2. LSU
Things could certainly change after this week with LSU going on the road to face Alabama. However, there is no denying the Tigers have been one of the top teams in college football so far this season.
The offense starts with running back Leonard Fournette, who leads the country with 1,352 rushing yards and is likely a favorite for the Heisman Trophy. Alabama coach Nick Saban praised his upcoming opponent, per NOLA.com's Jerit Roser:
Fournette's running has helped LSU earn great wins over Florida and Mississippi State as well as dominant showings against disappointing teams like Auburn and South Carolina. The SEC certainly isn't as deep as it has been in recent years, but staying undefeated is still noteworthy in this conference.
Things will obviously get tougher for the Tigers going forward—not only with a battle against Alabama, but also with matchups against Ole Miss and Texas A&M. If they survive this gauntlet, they will have to also win the SEC Championship Game. At the moment, however, the resume is good enough to be considered one of the best teams in the nation.
3. Ohio State
The big story over the past week is J.T. Barrett's suspension after his arrest Saturday, which left Cardale Jones to regain a starting spot at quarterback. What hasn't been discussed quite as much is how well the Buckeyes have played as a team in recent weeks.
After a few close calls earlier in the year, Ohio State dominated a solid Penn State team and easily cruised to victory against Rutgers. No matter who is under center, the offense will be fine with playmakers like Ezekiel Elliott and Braxton Miller. The defense also still has the great defensive line that helped shut down Oregon in last season's title game.
Although any accomplishments from 2014 shouldn't be considered in rankings for 2015, the talent absolutely can't be ignored.
A weak schedule to this point could push Ohio State out of the No. 1 spot in the rankings, but it should be safely in the playoff field based on what it has done to this point. Games against Michigan, Michigan State and potentially Iowa would be tough challenges, but the Buckeyes should be up to the task.
4. Baylor
This isn't any form of anti-Big 12 bias, but instead the backloaded schedule for both Baylor and TCU. Both contenders still have to face Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and each other. If one of them makes it out undefeated, there is no question it should be in the playoffs.
The problem to this point is both teams have done little besides beating up on weaker opponents.
That said, Baylor has done a better job this year in the role of bully. The Bears have the No. 1 offense in the nation at 61 points per game and had an easier time with SMU and Texas Tech than TCU. Neither team had much trouble against either West Virginia or Iowa State.
The issue going forward is whether Baylor will be able to stay as strong without starting quarterback Seth Russell. The junior is out for the season with a neck injury, although the coaching staff is confident in backup Jarrett Stidham, per ESPN's Joe Schad:
Baylor could drop if the offense struggles, but for now there is no reason to punish a team for what might happen.
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