SEC Football Q&A: Is Alabama or Florida the Better 1-Loss Team?
It seems like only yesterday that the entire SEC made the trek to Hoover, Alabama, for SEC media days with every team filled with hope.
Now, November is here, which means it's time for the stretch run in a wild and unpredictable SEC.
Who's the best one-loss team? Who will be sitting at home this Christmas? Which coordinators could be moving on after this season?
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Those questions are answered in this week's edition of the SEC football Q&A.
"@BarrettSallee Who is a better one-loss team? Florida or Alabama?
— Tanner (@TannerDennie) November 2, 2015"
It's Alabama for sure, although the gap isn't as wide as some in Crimson Tide nation probably think it is.
I love what Alabama has done this year in its secondary. Not only has new secondary coach Mel Tucker helped the Crimson Tide avoid giving up big play after big play—Alabama's allowed only 57 passes of 10 or more yards, which ranks fourth in the SEC—but their cornerbacks and safeties have become difference-makers.
Eddie Jackson moved from corner to safety during the offseason and is tied for the conference lead with five interceptions. Freshman Minkah Fitzpatrick has picked off two passes for touchdowns, and freshman safety Ronnie Harrison has stepped in to become a force for the Crimson Tide.
That, along with the progression of Jake Coker—which my colleague Chris Walsh detailed here—has me believing in Alabama. We know the Crimson Tide can run the football well behind Derrick Henry, and Coker has developed quite a chemistry with young receivers Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart.
Florida is solid too, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.
What really impresses me about the Gators is that they had success on the ground last week versus a Georgia defense that had been playing well against the run. That was the one thing Florida hadn't done all year long.
Quarterback Treon Harris is still adjusting to the starting role, and the schedule is set up for him to gain some momentum down the stretch before a showdown with Florida State and the postseason.
Alabama is the better one-loss team, but it's a close race. If the two meet in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta this December, it should be quite a showdown.
There are eight teams in the conference that are currently not bowl-eligible—Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Auburn. I'll go ahead and push the Bulldogs and Volunteers in for sure and eliminate the Gamecocks and Commodores because with three wins each, there's simply not enough schedule left for South Carolina or Vanderbilt to get to the six-win plateau.
So what happens with the rest?
The Wildcats are 4-4 with games against Georgia, Vanderbilt, Charlotte and Louisville left. Even if they lose to the Bulldogs, it's safe to assume they'll win at least two of their final three. So they're in.
The Auburn Tigers are also 4-4 and will get an easy win over Idaho to move within one game of bowl eligibility. Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama are left on the schedule too, and Auburn gets the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide at home. The Iron Bowl will be tough, but it's hard to trust the Aggies and Georgia at this point. The Tigers will win at least one of those to get to a bowl.
The Missouri Tigers and Razorbacks could be fighting for one bowl spot when they square off on rivalry weekend in Fayetteville, but both have plenty of work to do to get to that point.
Arkansas (4-4, 2-2) has back-to-back road trips to Ole Miss and LSU before finishing up with Mississippi State and Missouri. At best, the Razorbacks will win one of their final three before the regular-season finale. If they're not careful, though, they could drop all three and lock up a sub-.500 season before Thanksgiving.
Missouri (4-4, 1-4) is in a similar situation. The Tigers have Mississippi State, BYU and Tennessee before they face Arkansas. Getting one of the next three could be tough given the current state of the Missouri offense—a unit that hasn't scored a touchdown in 13-plus quarters.
I'll say both the Razorbacks and Tigers lose their next three games and join the Gamecocks and Commodores below the .500 mark. That should keep them out of bowl games. But there are 80 open bowl slots this year not including the College Football Playoff National Championship. So if there aren't 80 bowl-eligible teams, some 5-7 squads could get lucky.
I mentioned two in our coaching carousel video earlier this week: Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart to Virginia Tech and Crimson Tide offensive line coach Mario Cristobal to Miami.
Smart has to be getting a little antsy after spending the better part of a decade as a "hot shot" coordinator in Tuscaloosa, and he seems like a perfect fit for the Hokies. He's a defensive-minded coach, a tireless recruiter and can get Virginia Tech back to its glory days quickly if given the chance.
Cristobal, a Miami native, is a natural for the Hurricanes job. His time as Florida International's head coach didn't end well, but he has likely learned a lot under Nick Saban and can step right in and win the battle for attention in Miami.
Besides those two, it wouldn't surprise me if Georgia defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt got a job somewhere. Could it be one of the jobs that's currently open? I don't see him as the top pick, but there are plenty of dominoes left to fall, and I think Pruitt would do well to take a head coaching job at a smaller school to learn the ropes like Hugh Freeze and Gus Malzahn did at Arkansas State.
Alabama offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin could also jump ship, but it depends on which jobs open up. He's in the second year of a three-year deal with the Crimson Tide but is mostly living off the USC buyout money. He has the luxury of picking the right fit this offseason or sticking around Tuscaloosa for one more year and seeing how the dominoes fall after the 2016 season.
Gut feeling: Smart, Cristobal and Pruitt all leave, while Kiffin sticks around for Year 3 in T-Town.
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics are courtesy of cfbstats.com.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report, as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
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