Predictions for 10 Top Players Who Didn't Sign Extensions
The clocks have struck midnight, transitioning from Nov. 2 to the third day of 2015's penultimate month.
Normally, that would just mean it's time to prepare for a new slate of NBA games while the league's best and brightest are cuddling with their pillows or finishing up their late-night film-watching sessions. But for a handful of young players, it was a fateful passage of time that means they're now playing the rest of the 2015-16 season without a contract extension.
For some, it's a good thing. They're on their way toward stardom, and their stocks will only rise as the year progresses, fostering their inexorable march toward bigger paydays.
For others, the stroke of midnight was a harsh reminder of their failures to come to terms with their current teams. Now, they face uncertain futures. Whether due to natural regression, injury concerns or a dearth of predetermined playing-time allotments, they aren't guaranteed to make nearly as much next summer as they might have upon reaching an agreement in the past few days.
But which fall into each category? Looking at the 10 best players who failed to sign extensions before this year's deadline—determined based on current quality of production, accomplishments in the recent past and expected future work—we're trying to figure out what will happen to each of their values throughout the current campaign.
Though the future holds certain mysteries for all of them, one thing is certain: Given the upcoming salary-cap surge, each of these 10, listed in alphabetical order, will be making a lot of money next offseason, even if their value steadily declines from this point forward.
Harrison Barnes
1 of 10
Team: Golden State Warriors
Position: SF
Age: 23
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 10.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.2 blocks, 13.4 PER
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 10.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 11.6 PER
As Matt Moore explained for CBS Sports, there's a stark contrast between public perception of Harrison Barnes and his actual level of production:
"One interesting thing about Barnes' career is how wide a gap there is between the perception of Barnes and the reality. The perception is that he's the inconsistent wing who hasn't ever established himself for the Warriors. He's never really asserted himself or his role, outside of his post play in the 2013 playoffs and a few key moments during last year's championship run. He tends to disappear for long stretches and that feeds the feeling that he's simply not important. He's fine, it's hard to say he's inherently bad, but the general feeling is that he's just kind of there.
Start to dig a little deeper, however, and you can only really come to one conclusion: Though not exceptional, Barnes is a very good NBA wing.
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Context is always important, and it's especially relevant in this situation.
Barnes was one of the most massively hyped prospects to come around in a long time, and he never quite lived up to the expectations. Save a late postseason run at North Carolina and the 2013 playoffs that Moore mentioned, he's always been a bit disappointing. Couple that with the superstars on the Golden State Warriors who draw all the attention, and it's easier to see how the dichotomy between perception and reality emerged, misleading as it may be.
The young small forward is actually an ideal fit for this team, even though his passing limitations and occasional inability to create his own shot may prevent him from ever reaching celestial status. As he continues to thrive on a ridiculously successful Dubs squad, showing off his athletic cuts, spot-up-shooting ability and understated defensive prowess, his value will only continue to rise.
It's no fluke that during the 2014-15 season, Golden State was actually a slightly more dangerous team on both ends of the floor when he played.
Prediction: Value rises
Bradley Beal
2 of 10
Team: Washington Wizards
Position: SG
Age: 22
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 15.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.3 blocks, 14.0 PER
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 25.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks, 18.4 PER
It's all clicking for Bradley Beal.
In his first three games for the Washington Wizards this season, he's staunchly refused to loft up mid-range attempts, instead stepping back to three-point territory or putting the ball on the floor and attacking the hoop. He's settled for long twos only when no other options emerge.
That increased ability to select his shots has massively improved his scoring efficiency, imbuing him with all sorts of newfound confidence.
"Nobody can stop me. Plain and simple," the 2-guard posited after scoring 14 of his 26 points in the fourth quarter of a come-from-behind victory over the Milwaukee Bucks, per Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post.
So far, they truly can't. Beal has scored at least 24 points in each of the Wizards' first three outings, and that marks just the second time he's posted such high totals in back-to-back-to-back contests during his young career. This go-round, he's put together a 58.4 true shooting percentage en route to the offensive outbursts; back in 2013, his mark during the scoring streak was 56.5.
Beal is growing as an all-around player, and as a scorer. That's to be expected, given his youth and the fact that he's finally fully healthy for the first time in quite a long while.
Along those same lines, it's not a lack of production or expected stagnation that prevented him and Washington from coming to terms on an extension. Instead, as Dan Feldman broke down for NBC Sports, it's about playing the salary-cap game:
"Without an extension, Beal’s cap number will be $14,236,685 next summer until he’s renounced or signed. So, the Wizards can use their cap space on free agent – ahem, Kevin Durant – and then exceed the cap to re-sign Beal.
If he’d signed an extension, Beal’s cap number would have been his starting salary. The max projects to be $20,947,250, and that’s about what Beal deserves.
"
Come this time next year, Beal will be signing for max money. That much is just about guaranteed, regardless of whether he's working alongside Kevin Durant or Otto Porter Jr. at the 3.
Prediction: Hits max value
Andre Drummond
3 of 10
Team: Detroit Pistons
Position: C
Age: 22
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 13.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.9 blocks, 21.4 PER
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 18.7 points, 16.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.3 steals, 2.0 blocks, 23.8 PER
Andre Drummond is an absolute beast.
Few players can make a four-out, one-in system work to perfection, but this 22-year-old figures to do exactly that for head coach Stan Van Gundy and the rest of the Detroit Pistons. He might have a developing set of post moves that drags down his shooting efficiency on many nights, but it's simply impossible to keep him off the glass.
The Pistons are putting defenses in an impossible position each time they take to the court, forcing them to pick between contesting outside looks and leaving Drummond to fight through a single box-out before gobbling up an offensive board, or letting shooters take uncontested looks in order to prevent Drummond from wreaking second-chance havoc. It's a classic "pick your poison" scenario, and it's only going to get more deadly as the big man gains comfort operating with his back to the basket.
This type of talent is hard to find, especially when paired with improving work on the defensive side. Drummond has anchored a dominant unit in the early going with his quick hands, insane athleticism and burgeoning feel for timing-based plays.
"Andre's a maximum guy," Pistons owner Tom Gores bluntly stated back in April, per David Mayo of MLive.com. "He's a maximum guy. He's not only a great player, he's a great person."
These days, that couldn't be any more obvious.
Prediction: Hits max value
Festus Ezeli
4 of 10
Team: Golden State Warriors
Position: C
Age: 26
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 4.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 0.2 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.9 blocks, 16.2 PER
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 7.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists 0.7 steals, 1.3 blocks, 14.4 PER
"It's hard to close out on a Steph Curry and then try to box out [Festus] Ezeli at the same time. He adds a different dynamic to the game," Dwight Howard said about the young Golden State Warriors center before the two matched up for the first time this season, per Diamond Leung of the Bay Area News Group.
Ezeli has become one of those players who flies totally beneath the radar but still holds plenty of value. And the Dubs are perfectly aware of it, especially now that he's continued to do such a nice job filling in for Andrew Bogut whenever his frontcourt teammate needs some time off.
Is he going to be a star? Nope, but he doesn't have to fill such a role on this specific squad, since he can instead focus on cleaning up garbage looks around the hoop, rebounding with aplomb and playing a physical brand of effective defense.
Last season, NBA.com's SportVU data showed Ezeli holding opponents to 44.1 percent shooting at the rim while facing off against an even four shots per game. Considering he was on the floor for just under 11 minutes during the average contest, that's an absolutely incredible rate. He not only deterred plenty of looks from finding twine, but he was also highly involved as soon as he stepped onto the court.
This year, though the sample size is obviously small, he's been even better.
In 18.9 minutes per game, he's facing 8.3 shots at the hoop and holding the opposition to a mere 32 percent. Those are insane numbers, and, while unsustainable, they're indicative of the continuous improvement he's experiencing on the less-glamorous end.
Ezeli might not be glamorous, but he's important to the Golden State cause. His bank account will appreciate it next summer.
Prediction: Value rises
Evan Fournier
5 of 10
Team: Orlando Magic
Position: SG/SF
Age: 23
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 12.0 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 12.4 PER
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 14.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.3 steals, 11.0 PER
Writing for the now-defunct Grantland.com, Zach Lowe penned the following about Evan Fournier while going over all the notable extension candidates back in August:
"He shouldn't ever start for a good team, but Fournier is a career 38 percent 3-point shooter with some playmaking guile and the guts to sport ridiculous hairstyles. Use him as a primary ball handler and your offense is toast. Stick him on the wing while someone else does the heavy drive-and-kick lifting, and Fournier can do damage slicing into a scrambled defense. He can play multiple positions on both ends, though he probably tops out as an average defender.
"
That should become more and more clear as the Orlando Magic continue to improve under new head coach Scott Skiles. Not only does Fournier stick out like a sore thumb on the defensive end, but his offensive impact will slowly fade as this young roster realizes other members have so much more potential.
Though the 23-year-old wing began the season starting at small forward, it's tough to see him earning a similar role months down the road. Not as Aaron Gordon continues to assert himself as a developing offensive player and Mario Hezonja blossoms during his rookie season.
"It's the last of my worries, to be honest," Fournier said about the extension talks before the deadline had passed, per Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel. "It's really the last of my worries right now. I don't want to have a losing season again. That's all that matters to me right now. I'm just tired of losing, especially after my rookie year, tasting a little bit of winning with 57 wins."
But unfortunately for this young player, coming to terms in October would've been beneficial. It's tough to see his value so much as stagnating as he becomes a less crucial piece in the developing puzzle the Magic are currently trying to put together.
Prediction: Value declines
Terrence Jones
6 of 10
Team: Houston Rockets
Position: PF
Age: 23
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 11.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.8 blocks, 18.3 PER
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 9.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.0 blocks, 12.4 PER
Don't be fooled by Terrence Jones' start to the 2015-16 campaign. He's missed three games with a laceration above his eye, and he should be back to full strength before too long. This is hardly something to be worried about, even given his history of nagging injuries.
More concerning is Jones' skill set—specifically how it overlaps with what's provided by other members of the Houston Rockets frontcourt. Unless he suddenly develops into a show-stopping stretch-4—tough to see, given his career-high three-point percentage of 35.1 last season with limited attempts—he doesn't do enough to differentiate himself from the other major candidates for minutes.
When Donatas Motiejunas is healthy, he's a significantly more efficient offensive player with a bit more defensive versatility. Sure, Jones is slightly better as a rim-protector, but that's not enough to push him ahead in the rotation.
Especially given how Montrezl Harrell has played.
As the rookie from Louisville continues to gain his footing in the Association, he'll become more disciplined around the basket. Harrell might not have an excessive amount of size working to his advantage, but he consistently displayed good timing and quick vertical bursts—particularly on the second jump—during his time at Louisville.
Jones could be the odd-man out, and barring a midseason trade to a locale desperate for a new option at the 4, it's hard to see that being good for his value.
Prediction: Value declines
Meyers Leonard
7 of 10
Team: Portland Trail Blazers
Position: PF/C
Age: 23
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 5.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.3 blocks, 14.8 PER
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 7.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.7 blocks, 5.6 PER
As Joe Freeman explained for the Oregonian, Meyers Leonard will eventually get paid. It just makes sense for both sides to wait right now:
"The reality is, even if the sides don't agree to an extension by Nov. 2, it would hardly mean the end of Leonard's tenure in Portland. After this season the Blazers will extend Leonard a qualifying offer, valued at between $4.2 and $4.4 million, and he'll be a restricted free agent, giving the team a chance to match contract offers from other suitors. Just as they did with Nicolas Batum four years ago, the Blazers can keep Leonard if they desire.
And while Leonard's price tag might go up after a breakout year and amid a larger salary cap, waiting might actually benefit the Blazers in other ways. If Olshey signs Leonard now, the first year of his new lucrative contract would count against the Blazers' cap heading into the offseason, eating away some of Olshey's free agent spending power. If Olshey waits until next summer, however, only Leonard's cap hold — $7.7 million — would count against the Blazers' cap.
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Leonard has to love that line of thinking, because everything points to him showcasing his value in a much bigger role this season. Despite the plethora of options in the Portland Trail Blazers' frontcourt, he's a unique commodity, given his ability to knock down three-point attempts, run the floor, rebound effectively and protect the rim.
The 23-year-old has gotten off to a slow start while playing through numbness in his left hand, but the breakout is coming.
Last season, he became one of the few players in NBA history to knock down 50 percent of their shots from the field, 40 percent of their three-point attempts and 90 percent of their looks from the charity stripe (albeit not with enough attempts to actually qualify for the exclusive 50/40/90 club), and he exploded during the playoffs.
With more minutes should come even more production, and those won't be hard to find during a rebuilding season.
Prediction: Value rises
Donatas Motiejunas
8 of 10
Team: Houston Rockets
Position: PF
Age: 25
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 12.0 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, 14.4 PER
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: N/A
Given Donatas Motiejunas' versatility, he should be the man best suited to fill in at power forward for the Houston Rockets.
He can stroke the ball, coming off a season in which he knocked down 36.8 percent of his triples while taking 1.9 attempts per game. He can finish around the hoop, or else he wouldn't have finished the 2014-15 campaign making more shots than he missed. He can protect the rim, and NBA.com's SportVU data shows that he held opponents to 48.8 percent shooting at the hoop while highly involved. As if that's not enough, he's a post-up threat with mastery over pump-fakes who can pass well enough to consistently find open teammates.
But this doesn't mean Motiejunas is guaranteed to see his value rise. Not yet, because we still don't really understand how severe his back injury has become.
The Lithuanian big man underwent lumbar microdiscectomy surgery in April, and he hasn't yet received clearance to return to practice, per the Houston Chronicle's Jonathan Feigen. Jenny Dial Creech, also of the Houston Chronicle, waited nearly a month after the surgery before tweeting Motiejunas would be cleared for basketball activities in two to three months, but that was now six months ago. Still no word from the doctors.
This has to be a bit disconcerting. Back injuries are terrifying, particularly when the man suffering from them is a 7-footer. Even when Motiejunas returns to the court, we won't know whether he can avoid a setback for quite some time.
According to Feigen, the Rockets did make an extension offer to this 25-year-old—and to Jones, as well—but it was rebuffed by the player's camp. Chances are, that's because it was a low-ball offer meant to start the conversation, not finish it.
Now, there's no telling what will happen with Motiejunas. He could brush aside the April surgery and pick up where he left off, or he could spiral downward, plagued by recurring issues and a nagging fear of further relapse in the back of his mind.
Prediction: No clue
Jared Sullinger
9 of 10
Team: Boston Celtics
Position: PF/C
Age: 23
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 13.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.7 blocks, 17.9 PER
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 9.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.7 blocks, 18.7 PER
On one hand, Boston Celtics head coach Brad Stevens loves rostering big men who can shoot the ball from the perimeter to help space out the floor for his diverse offensive schemes. Jared Sullinger hasn't been particularly effective when letting long-range attempts fly, but at least he's willing to do so.
To his credit, he's also trended in the right direction each and every year.
But on the flip side, Sullinger is part of the Boston logjam, and it's tough to see him getting enough minutes to establish himself as anything more than he already is. With David Lee, Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko, Tyler Zeller and Kelly Olynyk all fighting him for minutes at the two biggest positions, nothing is guaranteed. Plus, you have to factor in Jordan Mickey eventually earning a role and the occasional small-ball lineups in Beantown.
At this point, we know exactly what type of player Sullinger has become.
Maybe everything clicks and he becomes an efficient stretch 4 who doesn't post low percentages from all over the court. But that's more of a pipe dream than anything else after he played at nearly the exact same level each of the last two seasons. Here are his per-36-minute numbers, as well as a few percentages and advanced metrics:
| 2013-14 | 17.3 | 10.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 27.6 | 42.7 | 49.7 | 16.4 |
| 2014-15 | 17.7 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 27.0 | 43.9 | 50.3 | 17.9 |
With the caveat that Sullinger could be traded to a new location and subsequently break out, it's hard to see this Ohio State product suddenly making the proverbial leap. Minutes are usually required in order to experience those substantial improvements, and there are too few to go around in Boston.
Prediction: Value stagnates
Tyler Zeller
10 of 10
Team: Boston Celtics
Position: C
Age: 25
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 10.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.6 blocks, 18.9 PER
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 5.3 points, 0.7 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.3 blocks, 8.1 PER
"[Tyler] Zeller was one of last season's pleasant surprises, scoring efficiently in a variety of ways and providing on-again, off-again rim protection for a Boston defense in desperate need of it," Lowe wrote in August. "Depending on team context, Zeller looks like either a dynamite third big man or a very nice fourth/fifth starter."
Unfortunately, it's tough to see him developing into anything more than that. On this Boston Celtics team, it's nearly impossible, given all the reasons enumerated while discussing Jared Sullinger. After all, the playing-time concerns don't only affect singular members of the frontcourt rotation.
Though it's certainly possible Zeller's improvements all stick, it's not guaranteed as he fights for minutes with everyone else. In 2014-15, he managed to get more efficient as a shooter despite an uptick in playing time, show off more adept passing skills and morph from a defensive liability into a positive presence.
The chances of all that remaining true are slim.
The odds of him continuing to get better, given the current situation in Beantown?
Just about nonexistent.
Prediction: Value declines
All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and are current heading into Nov. 2's games.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
