College Football Teams on Upset Alert in November
Welcome to November—the time of the college football calendar when championship dreams are either made or broken.
The final month of the regular season is always good for a few big-time upsets, ones that severely damage a contender or completely knock a high-rising team out of the title picture. Last season, Texas A&M upset then-No. 3 Auburn to give the Tigers a deflating second loss. Later in November, an Oregon State team that didn't even make a bowl game knocked off No. 7 Arizona State.
Here are several contenders that should be on upset alert this month in what has already been a crazy 2015 season. In order to make this list, the team on alert must be ranked—and the potential upsetter must be outside the Top 25. This takes away several games that may come to mind, such as Ohio State's road trip to Michigan or LSU's matchups against Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M.
To be clear, I'm not necessarily picking any of these contenders to lose these games. I'm just pointing out the possibilities of a ranked team falling to someone outside the polls based on location, timing on the schedule, matchup problems and past results. Feel free to put some more ranked teams on upset alert in the comments below.
No. 2 Baylor
1 of 8
Nov. 5 at Kansas State
Yes, Kansas State has lost four straight games—all in Big 12 play—and Oklahoma blitzed the Wildcats to the tune of 55-0 at home a few weeks ago.
But there are other factors at play that could make Baylor's trip to Manhattan somewhat problematic.
Baylor will play Bill Snyder's Kansas State team this Thursday night with freshman quarterback Jarrett Stidham, who replaces Seth Russell following the former starter's season-ending neck injury against Iowa State. The experts in Vegas don't expect Baylor to have too much of an offensive drop-off with Stidham, as the Bears are currently favored by 17.5 points, according to Odds Shark.
Like Baylor, Kansas State got an extra week off to prepare for this Thursday night matchup. While the Wildcats have looked rough in their last two games, the off week could help them get back to the way things were in their first five games of the season—when they won three nonconference games and took undefeated TCU and Oklahoma State down to the wire.
With the way the Baylor offense has been operating and how Kansas State's been playing lately, this should be a comfortable win for Art Briles' team. But a change to a brand-new quarterback and the possible return of some "Snyder Magic" could make this much closer than it should be in a historically tricky Thursday night slot.
No. 6 Michigan State
2 of 8
Nov. 28 vs. Penn State
Michigan State seems to be in pure "survive and advance" mode at this point, and that's as good a strategy as any during the tough month of November. The Spartans haven't impressed much in 2015, but they still have an unbeaten record with four regular-season games to play.
Struggling Nebraska and Maryland shouldn't give Michigan State too many problems before its massive showdown with Ohio State in the Horseshoe on Nov. 21. But take a look at the game after that one for a potential pitfall for the Spartans.
As David Briggs of the Toledo Blade noted Monday, Michigan State wouldn't be technically out of the Big Ten and national title pictures if it loses to Ohio State and the Buckeyes lose to Michigan on Nov. 28. But, win or lose against Ohio State, the Spartans will have to get past a potentially dangerous Penn State team in order to keep their title hopes intact.
Penn State has one of the most dominant defensive fronts in all of college football, as the Nittany Lions lead the nation in sacks and rank second in tackles for loss. Michigan State's offensive line is starting to regain its health after the return of center Jack Allen, per Matt Charboneau of the Detroit News, but the Penn State line will still be quite difficult to handle for an offense that has been inconsistent throughout 2015.
Whether it comes after a huge win or a tough loss against Ohio State, Penn State is a potential trap at home for a Michigan State team looking to stay in the hunt for championships in late November.
No. 8 Notre Dame
3 of 8
Nov. 7 at Pittsburgh
After a tight win over a top-notch Temple team away from home last Saturday, Notre Dame must hit the road again this weekend in order to keep its playoff hopes alive.
This time around, the Fighting Irish will face Pittsburgh out of the ACC. The Panthers just fell out of the Top 25 last weekend following their seven-point home loss to North Carolina, and their only other loss this season came by way of a last-second field goal at still-undefeated Iowa.
Pittsburgh will have had a couple of extra days to get over the Thursday night loss to North Carolina and prepare for Top 10 foe Notre Dame. Although the Fighting Irish are the better team in almost every statistical category, the Panthers have a history of keeping things close and even pulling out victories over Notre Dame.
"The Panthers always seem to play the Irish tough, and won the previous meeting between the teams, 28-21, in 2013," Sam Werner of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote. "Nine of the past 10 games between the two have been decided by one score or less."
Pat Narduzzi's Pittsburgh team has plenty of close-game experience this season, too, as five of the Panthers' six wins have been one-score decisions. These Panthers will play hard-nosed defense and look to dominate the time of possession in front of their home fans. Notre Dame will need to be extra sharp for this early road kickoff.
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No. 10 Iowa
4 of 8
Nov. 7 at Indiana
Even though the schedule looked highly favorable heading into the 2015 season, few—if any—expected Iowa to be undefeated and sporting a Top 10 ranking at the beginning of November. The Hawkeyes look set to keep it, too, with four winnable games left to go in the regular season.
Of the potential traps left for Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes, perhaps this weekend's matchup against Indiana looms the largest. Iowa has to go to Bloomington, a place where defending national champion Ohio State only escaped with a seven-point win.
While the Hoosiers have fallen flat on the road in 2015, their offense has put up impressive averages of 540 yards and 40 points away from home. Iowa has a legitimate top-10 defense filled with plenty of playmakers, but keep in mind that the best statistical offense it has played this season was Iowa State, which is ranked No. 48 in yards per game.
"[The Hoosiers] have a quarterback (senior Nate Sudfeld) that is experienced and productive and an offensive team that scores a lot of points," Ferentz said, per the program's official website. "They have played a lot of folks tough, they have four quality wins, and it will be a big challenge for us."
If Indiana is able to hit the strong Iowa defense for big plays and touchdowns, will the offense be able to keep up? The Hawkeyes posted their second-fewest yards of the season against Maryland last weekend, and they'll most likely need better production to knock off an offensive-minded team away from home.
No. 12 Oklahoma State
5 of 8
Nov. 14 at Iowa State
Oklahoma State remained undefeated after a wild 70-53 shootout at Texas Tech last weekend. The Cowboys host the "Big Three" in the Big 12—TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma—but they'll face a different kind of challenge in their final road game of 2015.
Iowa State is coming off a huge shutout victory over Texas at home, and it faces a tough Oklahoma team on the road in Week 10. The Cyclones defense could make things difficult for the Cowboys, who have played close games in almost all of their road trips this season, including one to that same Texas team Iowa State smacked last weekend.
Paul Rhoads' team held Baylor to its fewest points and yards of the season and forced TCU to get off to a slow start in Ames. Only time will tell how the Cyclones follow up their shutout victory over Texas, but they're sure to be a defensive test Oklahoma State can't overlook.
And before one rules out the notion of a title-contending Oklahoma State team falling to an Iowa State squad with a losing record on the road, it's already happened before. In 2011, Oklahoma State's only loss of the season was a double-overtime stunner at Iowa State, which finished the season with a 3-6 record in Big 12 play.
Oklahoma State looks like it needs to win out in order to have a shot at the playoff, and it won't be able to afford possible back-to-back losses against TCU and then Iowa State. These Cyclones are quite capable of surprising teams at home, especially with their defensive momentum.
No. 13 Utah
6 of 8
Nov. 7 at Washington
This matchup jumped out as a potential trap game for Utah several weeks ago, and now it looks even bigger now that Washington is fresh off a 49-3 destruction over Arizona.
In fact, No. 13 Utah looks set to enter its second straight road game as an underdog to an unranked opponent. According to Odds Shark, Washington is currently a 1- to 1.5-point favorite over Utah for this Saturday's matchup in Seattle.
The last time the Utes were in a situation like this, they fell to unranked USC in the Coliseum. While USC has more overall talent on its roster than Washington, the Huskies looked like a complete team against Arizona with a suffocating defense and an explosive offense.
"Take away a 17-point loss without its starting quarterback to the nation's No. 9 team, and UW's losses have come by an average of five points," Matthew Piper of the Salt Lake Tribune wrote. "And given that the defense has allowed under 17 points per game, the prospect of a sprung-to-life Husky offense is a daunting one."
Utah's offense hasn't quite looked the same since its huge blowout win over Oregon earlier this season, and Washington's defense is ranked No. 10 nationally in the S&P+ ratings from Football Outsiders. Vegas and the pollsters are at odds again with a Utah game, and a Washington win this weekend might not be a true upset.
No. 15 Memphis and No. 18 Houston
7 of 8
Nov. 7 vs. Navy (Memphis)
Nov. 27 vs. Navy (Houston)
Memphis and Houston are on a collision course in the American Athletic Conference's West division, with the two schools set to square off in the Lone Star State on Nov. 14.
However, the Tigers and the Cougars aren't the only teams in that division with an undefeated conference record. Before Memphis visits Houston, it has to take care of business at home this Saturday against Navy and star quarterback Keenan Reynolds.
Navy's only loss this season has been to Top 10 team Notre Dame, and the Reynolds-led option attack is always tough to get ready for, especially with just a week of preparation. Houston and Memphis both have great run defenses statistically, but they haven't faced an offense that will run it as repeatedly and efficiently as the Midshipmen.
If Houston is able to beat both Cincinnati and Memphis at home in the next two weeks, Tom Herman's team should be undefeated when it faces Navy on a Friday. The Cougars will have one fewer day to get ready for Reynolds and the rest of the Midshipmen, and by then they could even be picking up some playoff buzz.
Navy is more than just a spoiler in the AAC race, as its resume would be one of the best in the entire Group of Five if its able to run the table. The Midshipmen are dangerous to both Memphis' and Houston's dreams of grabbing a spot in the major bowl games, and they could very well take it for themselves.
No. 20 Toledo
8 of 8
Nov. 17 at Bowling Green
The non-AAC Group of Five team still sporting an undefeated record, Toledo is about to embark on a three-week stretch of higher-profile Tuesday night #MACtion games.
Northern Illinois and Central Michigan won't necessarily be easy, but the Rockets' toughest test in that stretch will come at the end against rival Bowling Green. Toledo will have to travel to Bowling Green after a road game against CMU and face an offense that has been downright ridiculous this season.
Bowling Green's offense is No. 8 nationally in scoring, No. 1 in passing and No. 4 in total yardage. Toledo, on the other hand, is No. 51 in total defense this season with a No. 20 ranking in passing yards allowed per attempt.
The Rockets' statistical profile is quite good for a MAC program, but Bowling Green is a completely different kind of test than the ones they've faced so far in their undefeated start to 2015. Adding the rivalry atmosphere on the road to an opponent with a high-powered attack will make this one even tougher for Toledo.
Bowling Green has already knocked off two Big Ten schools this season, and they could get two shots at knocking off Toledo if you count a potential MAC Championship Game rematch. The Falcons will be the biggest foes standing between the Rockets and a spectacular undefeated season.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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