Clemson Playoff Hopes on Line Against Florida State
When No. 3 Clemson takes the field against No. 17 Florida State inside Memorial Stadium on Saturday afternoon, Nov. 7, it’ll be the biggest game of the Tigers’ season.
That, in itself is nothing new: Clemson-Florida State has decided the ACC Atlantic Division champion in each of the last five seasons, and either Clemson or FSU has won the ACC in each of the last four seasons.
What is new, however, is the fact that Clemson’s College Football Playoff hopes ride on the outcome.
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At 8-0, Dabo Swinney’s bunch has gained national respect and played itself into excellent position for the first CFP Top 25 of the season on Tuesday. Yahoo Sports' Pat Forde has Clemson as his No. 1 playoff seed, should the season end today. But the Tigers simply won’t have the juice to make the playoff without beating Florida State.
“It’s fun to be in November going into the championship run and be in the conversation,” Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney said, via Gene Sapakoff of the Charleston Post and Courier. “That’s a blast. That’s where we want to be. I mean, we embrace that. But we want to be there Dec. 6. But for that to happen, we have to win this week. We have to win the division. We have to win the ACC Championship Game.”
Such is the reality of Clemson’s resume. Clemson currently has one victory over a team expected to finish the season in the Top 25. A rain-soaked 24-22 win over Notre Dame was the No. 8 Fighting Irish’s only loss to date, and it looks better by the week.
Current Coastal leader North Carolina, the likely foe in the ACC Championship Game, just cracked the rankings at No. 21. Beyond that, the Tigers have Wake Forest, Syracuse and South Carolina, three teams with a current combined record of 9-16.
Florida State is the best remaining opportunity for a marquee victory.
While 2015 has been unpredictable, college football remains top-heavy. Temple’s loss to Notre Dame means 11 unbeaten FBS teams remain. Taking remaining matchups into consideration, a maximum of six teams can finish the regular season unbeaten (Clemson in the ACC, Baylor, Oklahoma State or TCU in the Big 12, Iowa, Michigan or Ohio State in the Big Ten, LSU in the SEC, Toledo in the MAC and either Houston or Memphis in the AAC).
Let’s just assume that Toledo, Houston or Memphis won’t have the resume to crack the College Football Playoff, as their current best wins are over Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Ole Miss, respectively. That leaves a potential unbeaten from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC. A year ago, Florida State was the only unbeaten team in the FBS, and the Seminoles wound up as the No. 3 playoff seed.
That speaks to the relative strength, or lack thereof, of the ACC. The Sagarin ratings measure the strength of college football leagues, breaking them down by division if possible. The ACC Coastal ranks fifth, and the ACC Atlantic, even with Clemson and FSU, ranks eighth, behind the SEC East. That’s the second-worst ranking of any Power Five league or division, just ahead of the Big Ten West at No. 10.
It will be impossible to keep a Power Five unbeaten out of the playoff, but that can’t be said for a one-loss team.
Baylor, TCU and the Big 12 found that out the hard way last year when both were passed by Ohio State in the final poll (the only one that truly matters) for the fourth and final playoff spot.
If the Tigers beat Florida State and then defeat North Carolina in the ACC title game, they’d be unbeaten with three Top 25 victories. That’s a resume that would be very difficult to keep out of the four-team field.
A blemished resume, however, puts a team at the mercy of the selection committee, which is a place no one ever wants to be.
And remember how this game has decided the Atlantic title for the last four years? That’ll be the case again this year.
Beyond Saturday, Florida State has only one ACC game left, hosting NC State on Nov. 14 before finishing the season against FCS foe UT-Chattanooga and rival Florida. While FSU already has one ACC loss (to Georgia Tech), the Seminoles would be favored to beat the Wolfpack. They’d also own the Atlantic tiebreaker with a win over Clemson, regardless of how the Tigers fare against Syracuse or Wake Forest.
Would a team that couldn’t even win its division make the College Football Playoff? Highly unlikely. After all, the event that ushered in the playoff was SEC West foes Alabama and LSU meeting in a boring BCS National Championship Game following the 2011 season.
For Clemson, the playoff math is simple. Win, and they’re in. And no game is more important than the one staring them in the face Saturday.
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