Stanford Survives vs. WSU, but Pac-12 Playoff Hopes Looking More Unlikely

Stanford's 30-28 win at Washington State kept a bad day for the Pac-12 from becoming catastrophic.

But based on how Stanford looked, it was still a pretty bad day.

The Cardinal survived but barely, needing a late touchdown and a missed 43-yard field goal to slip by the Cougars in Pullman. They were outgained by 130 yards and trailed for most of the game. If not for their red-zone defense, which in a funny twist forced five Cougars field goals before allowing its first touchdown, there's no way it wins this game.

"We didn't play perfectly," head coach David Shaw admitted on the ESPN broadcast. "But that's the sign of a good team: [When] you don't play your best, you can still pull out a win, in the rain, on the road."

But the Pac-12 doesn't need Stanford to be a good team. It needs it to be a great team. The Cardinal along with Utah are the only one-loss teams left in the league.

Assuming no two-loss teams make the College Football Playoff, that means either Stanford or Utah needs to win out. Otherwise, the Pac-12 will draw the short straw and send its champion to a non-semifinal.

Here are the Cardinal and Utes' remaining schedules, along with their pre-Week 9 win probabilities, per Football Study Hall:

Date	Opponent	S&P+ Rank	Proj. W-L	Stanford Win Prob.
11/7	at Colorado	98	W	88
11/14	vs. Oregon	57	W	81
11/21	vs. California	43	W	69
11/28	vs. Notre Dame	8	W	56
			WIN ALL FOUR:	28%

Date	Opponent	S&P+ Rank	Proj. W-L	Utah Win Prob.
11/7	at Washington	49	W	59%
11/14	at Arizona	68	W	74%
11/21	UCLA	17	W	66%
11/28	Colorado	98	W	94%
			WIN ALL FOUR:	27%

Based on those numbers, the Utes and Cardinal each have a roughly one-in-four chance of winning out.

But those numbers don't reflect what happened in Week 9: namely Stanford's struggles, which will affect its win probabilities, but also Washington's 49-3 rout of Arizona, which makes next week's road trip even more dangerous for Utah.

They also undersell the inherent and insidious weaknesses of both teams: namely Stanford's pass rush, which entered the week ranked No. 127 in Football Study Hall's adjusted sack rate, and Utah's quarterback, Travis Wilson, who loves throwing interceptions.

These are two flawed football teams, and they've proved it the last two weekends. But they're all the Pac-12 has to rely on.

Every other power conference has at least one undefeated team, and the Big 12 (two) and Big Ten (three) have multiple. They have stronger playoff candidates with larger margins for error. The Pac-12 dodged a bullet in Pullman, but it's still in harm's way.

That's why Stanford's performance was so disappointing. The Cardinal had trended up since losing at Northwestern in Week 1. They appeared like (and still might be) the class of the conference.

And then they barely won on national television.

But that's just how the Pac-12 has been this season. One week's results almost never correspond with the next.

USC crushes Arizona State in Tempe then loses to Washington at home; Arizona State gets crushed by USC then crushes UCLA in Los Angeles; UCLA gets crushed by ASU and Stanford then crushes Cal; et cetera.

That all these teams look equal, or at least relatively equal, is good for the league in the short term. If any team can win any game, there's more reason for both sides to watch. Close games mean intrigue and intrigue means ratings and ratings mean dollar signs.

But you know what else means dollar signs? Getting a team in the playoff. Winning on the big stage enhances a league's national profile, driving that aforementioned intrigue on a wider scale. The SEC has built a modern recruiting dynasty off the hype of winning seven straight BCS National Championships. That's what having dominant programs does.

The P in Pac-12 stands for "parity."

Because of that, it might not stand for "playoff."