Odds Multiple College Football Teams Finish the 2015 Season Undefeated
The 2015 college football season has been as competitive as any in recent memory. As we move into the final six weeks of the regular season, the College Football Playoff picture is wide-open.
Twelve FBS teams are unbeaten, and a number of one-loss teams, led by Alabama, still have a very realistic shot at one of the four coveted spots. In other words, we’re in for one heck of a ride between now and when the second CFP field is announced on Dec. 6.
How it will shake out remains unclear, but one interesting factor will be the number of unbeaten teams. A year ago, Florida State was the only unbeaten in the playoff field. But what happens if there are multiple unbeatens, or unbeaten teams from the Group of Five leagues like Houston, Memphis, Temple or Toledo?
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Things could get very interesting. Let’s take a look at the odds that multiple teams will finish the regular season unbeaten.
History
First off, let’s examine recent history.
Over the last 10 seasons, the regular season has ended with multiple unbeaten teams five times, but that doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story. Since 2010, when the final regular-season poll featured three unbeaten teams (Auburn, Oregon and then-Mountain West member TCU), the final poll has featured exactly one undefeated team entering the postseason. In 2011, it was LSU. In 2012, it was Notre Dame, with Florida State holding the mantle the past two seasons.
In 2005, Southern California and Texas both finished the season unbeaten before engaging in an epic national title battle in the Rose Bowl. In 2006, there were two unbeatens (No. 1 Ohio State and No. 9 Boise State), but the Broncos didn’t factor in the national title picture. 2007 was one of the craziest seasons on record. How wild? The Buckeyes had one loss, and they were the only one-loss team in the top seven.
A year later, both Utah and Boise State finished the season unbeaten, but neither were among the nation’s top six teams. 2009 was a bit of an outlier—five teams (Alabama, Texas, TCU and Cincinnati, as well as No. 6 Boise State) finished the season unbeaten, but under the BCS format, the Crimson Tide and Longhorns faced off in the Rose Bowl for the national title.
In summation, multiple unbeatens are entirely possible, but there is a precedent for an unbeaten from a lesser league to be left out of the playoff and national title picture completely.
The Contenders
As we wind up October, 12 FBS teams are unbeaten, but there will be a maximum of eight unbeaten by season’s end due to matchups remaining on the schedule.
Unbeaten Houston and Memphis will face off on Nov. 14 at Houston. In addition, Memphis travels to current unbeaten Temple a week later. Temple also has a difficult matchup Saturday when No. 9 Notre Dame visits Philadelphia. And should the Owls survive the regular season without a loss, they’ll likely face either Houston or Memphis in the inaugural AAC title game.
In the Big Ten, Michigan State, Ohio State and Iowa are all undefeated. The Spartans and Buckeyes will clash Nov. 21 in Columbus, with one team’s record leaving with a blemish. And should Ohio State survive Michigan State, a trip to Ann Arbor for the annual rivalry showdown with Michigan one week later will be no easy test.
Of the Big Ten unbeatens, Iowa has the most obvious path to a 12-0 record. The 7-0 Hawkeyes don’t have Michigan State, Michigan or Ohio State on their schedule due to the league scheduling rotation, and their remaining schedule is easy.
Of the remaining five opponents, only Minnesota is currently above .500 at 4-3. The Gophers and Maryland will both be piloted by interim coaches, and Purdue is 1-6. That leaves road trips to 4-4 Indiana and 3-5 Nebraska as the toughest “tests” remaining.
Of course, Iowa would likely face off with either Michigan State or Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, the Hawkeyes’ toughest test by far.
Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz, of course, is taking nothing for granted, as he told Mike Hlas of the Cedar Rapids Gazette: “Every weekend there’s examples of how wrong the experts can be. But experts don’t have to play games. I’m not criticizing it or making fun of it, but for the guys that have to go out and compete, it’s a whole different deal.”
In the Big 12, Baylor, Oklahoma State and TCU are all unbeaten, but the league’s nine-game round-robin format guarantees one unbeaten, at most, emerging from the fray. Oklahoma State faces TCU on Nov. 7 and Baylor on Nov. 21, and the Horned Frogs and Bears tangle in one of the season’s biggest games on Nov. 27.
And don’t forget the presence of one-loss Oklahoma, who will also face all three teams in its final three games. November will be a month to remember in the Big 12, and it is entirely possible that the league will wind up with two one-loss teams, as it did a year ago with Baylor and TCU.
In the SEC, LSU is the lone unbeaten, but the Tigers have an ultra-tough test next week at Alabama. The Tigers also must travel to Ole Miss and host Texas A&M and Arkansas (which shut them out 17-0 a year ago) in their final four games. That’s a very difficult gauntlet to run for an unbeaten season.
The MAC also features an unlikely unbeaten in 7-0 Toledo, which owns wins over Power Five foes Arkansas and Iowa State. But the Rockets still must travel to MAC West leader Bowling Green, and even if they finish the season unbeaten, their ceiling is the Group of Five spot in the New Year’s Six bowls, given the MAC’s comparative league-wide weakness.
Attrition caused by unbeaten matchups will take its toll, and so will the difficult matchups ahead for those not guaranteed to face another unbeaten (like Iowa and LSU).
While it is entirely possible that an AAC or MAC team could run the table, the odds of either crashing the College Football Playoff party is slim.
The odds of finishing the season with multiple unbeaten teams? Let’s put it at 10-1, but the odds of multiple Power Five teams finishing the season unbeaten is much slimmer. Let’s call that 30-1. And even if that happened, it wouldn’t disrupt the playoff picture.
One thing that’s guaranteed? The action between now and early December is going to be tremendous. Don’t lose your remote, folks.
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