Bowl Predictions 2015: Playoff Projections Heading into Week 9
After nearly two months of games and teams making their cases to be included among the nation's elite, answers will be provided after Week 9 when the College Football Playoff selection committee releases its first ranking of the season on Nov. 3.
This has been an unusual season already, as there were seven undefeated teams in the Associated Press Top 10 entering play this week, and that doesn't even include Oklahoma State at No. 12. The three one-loss teams that round out the list are titans in Alabama, Stanford and Notre Dame.
Basically, this is the best possible scenario for drama in college football with at least 12 teams still in the playoff mix. Usually these things end up working themselves out in the final month, so let's look at the projected playoff bracket as of this Saturday.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
| Cotton Bowl | No. 1 Ohio State | No. 4 Stanford |
| Orange Bowl | No. 2 LSU | No. 3 Clemson |
Projection Analysis
Ohio State started the season looking like a shaky No. 1, especially relative to preseason expectations when the Buckeyes were a unanimous choice for the top team by the Associated Press.
Head coach Urban Meyer finally made a quarterback change, going to last year's starter J.T. Barrett against Rutgers last week. The Buckeyes won 49-7, and Barrett had five total touchdowns and 324 total yards.
In 90 fewer pass attempts than Cardale Jones, Barrett has the same number of touchdown passes (seven) to just two interceptions.
Meyer understands that his team is not perfect, telling Fox Sports (via Stewart Mandel of FoxSports.com) that he's been part of groups that were supposed to dominate all of their opponents before.
“I’ve been down this road before where the expectation level is over the top,” Meyer said. “All I care about is getting better each week. We haven’t played perfectly, but not a lot of people out there have.”
With Barrett under center, running back Ezekiel Elliott still one of the most dynamic playmakers in the nation and a defense that's allowed just 17 points in its last two games, the Buckeyes look like the team they were expected to be when 2015 started.
Ohio State's two biggest tests of the season are still on the horizon, as the Buckeyes host Michigan State on Nov. 21 and travel to Michigan on Nov. 28. A late-season loss would throw everything for a loop, but with just one conference loss since 2012, it will require a perfect game from the Spartans or Wolverines to pull off the upset.
Looking at the No. 2 spot, it's a battle between Clemson and LSU. The SEC squad gets the advantage—not because of the conference, but due to the possibility of having wins over two top-10 teams by season's end in Florida and Alabama—but it's very close.
Clemson's win over Notre Dame is the best win for either team at this point in the season. That game also looks like the Tigers' biggest test of the season, as Florida State is the only ranked team still on the schedule.
According to ESPN.com's Sharon Katz, ESPN's Football Power Index actually has Clemson tied with Ohio State among teams most likely to end this season undefeated:
"...Ohio State has the slightest edge, less than half a percentage point, over Clemson when it comes to their respective chances to win out. With games against Michigan State and Michigan, the Buckeyes have a tougher remaining schedule than Clemson, but they also have one fewer game, and one fewer chance to lose, than the Tigers. Even when a team has a 90 percent chance to win, it is still expected to lose one out of every 10 times, so the extra game makes a difference.
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It's really splitting hairs between Clemson and LSU if both teams end up undefeated. LSU has to face Alabama in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 7, will go to Mississippi on Nov. 21 and possibly the SEC Championship Game, which would currently be a rematch with Florida.
Given that schedule for LSU, along with the lack of high-end competition for Clemson even in a potential ACC Championship Game, Les Miles' team gets the No. 2 seed.
The race for the final spot is going to be insane, but Stanford takes the crown at this moment by virtue of having a schedule that's more favorable than most of the other teams ahead of it.
| No. 2 Baylor | 5 | 3 (vs. Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State, at TCU) |
| No. 5 TCU | 5 | 2 (at Oklahoma State, at Oklahoma) |
| No. 6 Michigan State | 4* | 1 (at Ohio State) |
| No. 7 Alabama | 4* | 1 (vs. LSU) |
| No. 8 Stanford | 5* | 1 (vs. Notre Dame) |
*Indicates team could play a conference championship game
With those schedules, having already established that I believe Michigan State and Alabama will lose their single games against top-five opponents, Stanford's slate sets up very well to make a run at the final playoff spot.
Granted, the Cardinal's opening loss at Northwestern looks worse now after the Wildcats lost back-to-back games against Michigan and Iowa by a combined score of 78-10 and survived against Nebraska, but don't forget the selection committee rewarded Ohio State for a strong finish last year despite an early loss against Virginia Tech.
Plus, with Notre Dame currently in the top 10 and making a playoff push, Stanford ending the regular season with a win over the Fighting Irish will go a long way toward making its national championship argument.
Baylor and TCU are certainly in the mix, but those two teams have yet to play a ranked opponent. TCU has won three road games against Minnesota, Texas Tech and Kansas State by a combined 16 points, and the Horned Frogs still have to play at Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.
Baylor is playing three elimination games in a 13-day span, including two on the road, against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU.
The Big 12 looks much better this season than it did in 2014, but that depth is likely to cost the conference a spot in the College Football Playoff once again because it will be difficult for Baylor and/or TCU to enter their Nov. 27 matchup undefeated.
As a result, Stanford will continue to slide up the rankings before putting itself in a position to make the playoff.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
