SEC Extra Points with Barrett Sallee: Odds SEC Team Doesn't Make the Playoff
Doomsday scenario?
The SEC's version is still in play following Ole Miss' 23-3 win over Texas A&M last weekend in Oxford.
The Rebels (6-2, 3-1 SEC) have a blowout loss to Florida and another road loss to Memphis out of the American Athletic Conference on their resume, but they still control their destiny in the SEC West thanks to a win over Alabama and LSU's still lingering on the schedule.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
That presents a problem for the SEC if the Rebels win out and claim the SEC title, because that second loss could be the roadblock that prevents the SEC from getting a team into the second annual College Football Playoff, as Andy Staples of Sports Illustrated noted on Twitter over the weekend:
Make no mistake—that would also block Alabama from playoff glory even if the Crimson Tide win out.
If they finish 11-1, they wouldn't have a conference championship and would have a head-to-head loss to the team that does on the resume. I don't care how well Alabama would be playing at that point; conference championships matter more than they should. After all, simply winning an arbitrarily determined conference based mostly on geography doesn't make a team elite and should eliminate those that don't.
For that doomsday scenario to play out, though, Ole Miss would have to win out. That is a little more likely after clearing the Texas A&M hurdle, but road trips to Auburn and Mississippi State won't be easy, and home tilts against Arkansas and LSU will be incredibly tough.
Ole Miss is getting healthier thanks to the return of defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche and linebacker C.J. Johnson, but it's still hard to trust a team that has proven depth issues on defense and can't run between the tackles.
Odds the SEC's doomsday scenario plays out: 30-1. It's much more likely the SEC champ will have one loss than two.
Carl Lawson's Return: Trick or Treat?
For about 20 minutes inside the Georgia Dome during the season opener versus Louisville, Auburn's defense looked more like a power than a punch line.
Then "Buck" Carl Lawson hurt his hip. The unit hasn't been the same since and has regressed into the SEC's worst defense (430.6 yards per game) despite the presence of veteran coordinator Will Muschamp.
Lawson has been practicing this week, but head coach Gus Malzahn is still on the fence on whether his star will suit up Saturday against Ole Miss.
"We don't have any call on whether he's going to play, but he did have a limited practice [Tuesday], and when he was out there, he did fine," Malzahn said.
If he does return, the impact for the struggling Tigers should be apparent.
"The leadership alone and having his presence will be huge," Malzahn said. "He's our defensive leader and one of our team leaders. When we get him back, that will be a lift for our defense."
If Lawson plays, he's not going to line up opposite star Rebels tackle Laremy Tunsil in the same way Texas A&M's Myles Garrett did last week. In the opener, Lawson moved all over the field, including as a linebacker behind tackle Montravius Adams to bring pressure up the middle, and created confusion in the Cardinals offensive line.
That will be huge against Ole Miss, which has suffered from offensive line breakdowns often over the last two seasons even with Tunsil in the lineup.
Gut feeling: Expect Lawson to play Saturday afternoon.
Better Than Advertised
Ole Miss' Laquon Treadwell has proved to be one of the SEC's best receivers during his three-year career in Oxford. He leads the SEC with 94.5 receiving yards per game, 756 receiving yards and 54 receptions; he has five receiving touchdowns and has recovered just fine from a gruesome broken leg suffered late in last season's loss to Auburn.
Last week against Texas A&M, Treadwell caught five passes for 102 yards and a score. Is he better than he was over the last two seasons?
"Yes," Aggies head coach Kevin Sumlin said, "and I told him that after the game...and I hope I don't see you anymore. I think he's one of the better players in the country. He's strong. He's physical. He separated on the big touchdown. He's a heck of a football player and is going to have a successful career at the next level."
That's a pretty strong statement considering Treadwell established himself as one of the nation's best possession receivers as a true freshman in 2013 when he caught a team-high 72 passes and followed it up with 632 yards and five touchdowns in nine games last year.
It's not a huge surprise to Treadwell's coach, though.
"I firsthand witnessed how hard he worked to come back, so it's not quite as surprising that he's doing as well as he is," Rebels head coach Hugh Freeze said. "I don't know if it's because of anything physically as much as it is that he's matured mentally. I kind of relate, and I told him this...we talked about tempo a lot around here. After the ball is snapped, the pace in which you play, there were some where he might grade himself a six or seven. This year, there's a lot of nine or 10."
Terrifying.
In Need of a Spark
To say Missouri's offense is stagnant would be an insult to stagnant lakes, which can still provide plenty of entertainment on hot summer days.
It's nearly dry.
The Tigers (4-4, 1-4 SEC) have the second-worst offense in the country (277.6 yards per game) ahead of only UCF, are averaging just 4.40 yards per play (125th in the nation), haven't scored a touchdown since the South Carolina game on Oct. 3 and have converted three third downs over the last three games.
There could be help on the way, though.
Head coach Gary Pinkel announced that Maty Mauk's suspension for violating team rules has been lifted after four games, and the redshirt junior is back practicing during the bye week. Could he start next Thursday night against Mississippi State?
"Depth chart and playing-time decisions won't be made until next week," Pinkel said.
Mauk has to start. Nothing against true freshman Drew Lock. He has showed flashes of his potential during his first start—that win over South Carolina. But he hasn't completed more than 50 percent of his passes in any game since and has tossed two picks over that stretch. While he hasn't been the biggest problem, he's not the solution either.
Mauk might be.
He can provide a spark with his legs, has the experience from two straight SEC East titles and might be Missouri's best option.
If that's the case, though, a bowl game might not be an option for this year's Tigers.
The Great Unknown
Texas A&M opened up its quarterback competition this week for Kyle Allen, Kyler Murray and Jake Hubenak, which presents an interesting dynamic for South Carolina interim head coach Shawn Elliott in his second game at the helm.
The Gamecocks will visit College Station this weekend and are forced to prepare for all three players—all of whom present different challenges. Allen is more of a gunslinger, Murray is the dual threat with speed to burn and Hubenak is probably the most reliable of the trio.
"Defensively, you have to start looking at all of the characteristics they have and who potentially might play," Elliott said. "At the end of the day, it's going to come down to blocking and tackling, assignment-oriented football and making sure that we're in position to tackle."
Texas A&M made South Carolina wait all the way until the 11th hour, before reports leaked out Friday afternoon that Murray will get the nod (via: Billy Liucci of TexAgs.com).
It will be a big test for South Carolina, which has had two weeks to prepare for the Aggies but got thrown a curveball this week when Sumlin opened things up.
A Second Career?
Finally, a light moment here on SEC Extra Points.
Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen served as Florida's offensive coordinator from 2005 to 2008, so naturally he was asked about his experiences at the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party between the Gators and Georgia.
Naturally, that launched him into a golf discussion.
The Gators stayed at Sawgrass during his time with the program, and while he didn't get to play the famed TPC Stadium Course while he was there, he did mention that he and his staff played the famed No. 17 island hole three times the day before his Mississippi State program played Michigan in the 2011 Gator Bowl following the 2010 season.
The result?
"We each got to play three balls, and I did par one of my three," he said.
Not bad, Coach Mullen.
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics are courtesy of cfbstats.com.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report, as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
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