Front-Runners, Expectations for Final Month in Big Ten East
The final month of the 2015 college football season should be a captivating race to the finish for the front-runners and spoilers in the Big Ten East Division.
Ohio State, the defending division, conference and national champions, are the popular choice to take the East—and deservedly so. It seems J.T. Barrett has locked up the starting quarterback job, and the Buckeyes have recently played outstanding football with the sophomore under center.
But then there's Michigan and Michigan State, which have both performed well enough to earn Top 15 rankings and will soon attempt to derail Ohio State's aspirations for a repeat title.
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While Rutgers, Indiana and Maryland are all but mathematically eliminated from contention, Penn State could cause a bit of havoc down the stretch.
Front-Runners
Of the 12 remaining undefeated teams, No. 6 Michigan State is probably the least impressive when considering performance compared to competition.
But less than 10 percent of the nation can say the same thing as the Spartans, because 8-0 is 8-0. It doesn't matter how they arrived, it matters that they're there. Big Ten Network's Tom Dienhart offered a couple of factors behind Michigan State's success:
"The Spartans haven't been overly impressive all season. See the Purdue and Rutgers games, among other tepid results this fall for Mark Dantonio's bunch. But, they always find a way to win. [The] stupefying result at Michigan takes the cake. The football gods are smiling on Sparty.
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Quarterback Connor Cook and wideout Aaron Burbridge are a deadly combination, and the Spartans running game should steadily come back as the offensive line gets healthier. Although the secondary is a clear weakness—partly due to injuries—MSU's front seven consistently makes opponents one-dimensional.
At least the Spartans know the pass is coming.
Michigan State should have little trouble dispatching Nebraska and Maryland. Mark Dantonio's crew closes the season against Penn State, but the most important matchup remaining on the slate is top-ranked Ohio State.
Whichever team emerges from the Nov. 21 clash will likely earn the division crown.
It appears 8-0 Ohio State has finally figured it out, as the offense has scored 136 points during their last three games. Barrett has grabbed the No. 1 duties and likely won't relinquish the reins.
Put simply, the Buckeyes look better with Barrett behind center. He has complete command of the unit, adding a running element that lessens the pressure on Ezekiel Elliott while only sacrificing arm strength—not accuracy.
Similar to Michigan State, Ohio State has an above-average defense but isn't invincible. Conversely, the secondary is its strength, and the defensive line is liable to make mistakes. The Buckeyes have the nation's No. 78 rush defense against conference opponents.
Ohio State will take on Minnesota and Illinois before hosting Michigan State and traveling to Michigan to end the regular season. For now, the road to Indianapolis goes through Columbus.
Contender
It was safe to project Michigan would be in this position entering November, but the expectation for how the Wolverines arrived here was certainly different.
Following a reasonable season-opening loss to Utah, first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh had the team playing at a remarkably high level. Michigan recorded three consecutive shutouts, including a 38-0 dismantling of then-No. 13 Northwestern.
However, the last-snap loss to Michigan State put the Wolverines in a hole. Earning the edge in a tiebreaker is a possibility, but it's not likely.
For Michigan to have any chance at the East Division crown, it must run the table. That's the obvious condition. But even if the Wolverines knock off Minnesota, Indiana, Penn State and upset Ohio State, they'll need a few perfect outcomes.
The best-case scenario is Ohio State beats Michigan State, which loses to Penn State while Michigan topples the Buckeyes. At that point, both the Wolverines and Buckeyes would have one conference loss to MSU's two, and Michigan would hold the head-to-head advantage over OSU.
Barring craziness in a three-way tie that sees the College Football Playoff committee rank a 10-2 Michigan at least two spots higher than potential 11-1 squads in OSU and MSU, the best-case scenario is the necessary scenario.
Potential Spoiler
Penn State was one holding penalty away from putting a legitimate scare into Ohio State, but a limited offense and average run defense eventually doomed the Nittany Lions.
While that combination will likely prove costly against an elite Michigan defense and strong Michigan State offense, Penn State could play the spoiler role.
| Ohio State | BYE | Minnesota | @ Illinois | MSU | @ Michigan |
| Michigan St. | BYE | @ Nebraska | Maryland | @ Ohio St. | Penn St. |
| Michigan | @ Minnesota | Rutgers | @ Indiana | @ Penn St. | Ohio St. |
| Penn St. | Illinois | @ Northwestern | BYE | Michigan | @ MSU |
As mentioned earlier, Michigan needs a Penn State victory over MSU to have a realistic chance at the division. Since the Spartans haven't had a dominant wire-to-wire win, perhaps this would be their trap game.
The Nittany Lions could also unintentionally bring Ohio State back into the fold should the Buckeyes drop their outing with the Spartans—though that would be contingent on Michigan running the table to create a three-way tie.
While Penn State has only one loss in Big Ten action, no one should count on James Franklin's squad to shock both Michigan schools. But the opportunity is there. That would be the ultimate spoiler.
Expectations
Christian Hackenberg and Penn State writing a Cinderella story would be an awe-inspiring development. The Nittany Lions won't lie down against Michigan or Michigan State, but they just don't have enough to finish an upset.
Although the Wolverines aren't out of the picture, the tiebreakers are unfavorable at best. Michigan is clearly ahead of schedule, and even though those within the program might say otherwise after falling short of a conference title, a 9-3 season would be a successful campaign.
The Big Ten will be decided at The Horseshoe. Michigan State has regularly survived close games, but Ohio State and its revived offense will be too much for the Spartans.
All recruiting information via 247Sports. Stats from cfbstats.com. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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