College Football Week 9 Predictions: Picking Top 25 Games Against the Spread
Another winning week has me creeping toward .500, the Mendoza Line of picks against the spread.
My record for the year (68-70-2) is still a notch below that number, and well below my goal of 57 percent, but the past three weeks have seen a mild turnaround. Another solid showing in Week 9 might help me pull my own backdoor cover.
As always, feel free to chime in below with your opinions or questions about the picks. I'll explain my rationale beneath each game, but of course we can always dive deeper. Just remember to keep it civil and that no one here hates your team.
The line is our only enemy.
North Carolina at No. 23 Pittsburgh
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The Line: North Carolina (-2.5)
It's hard to trust either of these teams.
But it's hard to pick against them, too.
Both are 6-1 and undefeated in ACC play. North Carolina lost a game it had about 10 chances to win against South Carolina, while Pittsburgh lost on a 57-yard last-second field goal against No. 10 Iowa.
The difference between 3-4 South Carolina and 7-0 Iowa explains why Pitt is ranked and UNC isn't. But in truth, the Tar Heels have been better. They rank eight spots higher on Football Outsiders' F/+ ratings and have beaten the two teams' common opponents, Georgia Tech and Virginia, by more points than Pitt in each case.
That's why they're pegged as road favorites, and as long as Marquise Williams abstains from crucial red-zone turnovers—the reason they lost to South Carolina—it's why they should pull the "upset" at Heinz Field.
The Pick: North Carolina (-2.5)
West Virginia at No. 5 TCU
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The Line: TCU (-13.5)
TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma are in an arms race to outdo each others' resumes, which puts West Virginia in a difficult spot.
The Mountaineers have already lost by 20 at Oklahoma and 24 at Baylor, and it's now the Horned Frogs' turn to one-up that.
TCU has looked vulnerable this season, especially on defense, but that didn't stop Baylor from blowing the doors off WVU. Gary Patterson's team is also coming off a bye week (as is West Virginia, it should be mentioned) and returns home for the first time since beating Texas, 50-7.
The defense needed more than an off week to fix things, but it should come out improved, if nothing else, on Saturday. Even if it doesn't, West Virginia quarterback Skyler Howard has been a noticeable downgrade from Clint Trickett, which has quietly hamstrung the offense all season.
The Pick: TCU (-13.5)
No. 19 Ole Miss at Auburn
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The Line: Ole Miss (-7)
Ole Miss heads to Auburn with one mission: exorcise the demons.
That's true for the team as a whole, but it's especially true for wide receiver Laquon Treadwell, whose injury was at the center of last year's home loss. Treadwell was streaking toward the end zone for what would have been the game-winning score but was dragged down by linebacker Kris Frost, fractured his tibia, dislocated his ankle and fumbled on the goal line to hand the game back to the Tigers.
Treadwell spent all offseason recovering, and so far he's looked better than ever. He leads with Rebels with 54 receptions for 756 yards, and the devastating block he laid on Texas A&M's De'Vante Harris last week went viral, earning him extra brownie points.
Ole Miss ranks No. 15 in F/+ while Auburn ranks down at No. 70. Why is a team rated higher than Michigan State giving only seven points to a team rated lower than South Florida? Even if this game is on the Plains, Ole Miss should be favored by closer to 10.
The Pick: Ole Miss (-7)
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Colorado at No. 24 UCLA
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The Line: UCLA (-20.5)
Colorado is 4-4 and threatening to make a bowl, but it's deceptively as bad as ever.
The Buffaloes rank No. 90 in F/+ and No. 98 in S&P+, looking up at teams such as UConn and Akron. Its average percentile performance the past four weeks, according to the S&P+ ratings, is 24. It has consistently performed in the bottom quartile.
But that doesn't mean it can't cover this spread. In fact, it probably will still cover this spread. UCLA ranks No. 17 in F/+, but its injury attrition has gone from bad to worse. The latest victim was star running back Paul Perkins, whose status remains unclear after an injury head coach Jim Mora Jr. called "not good" after the Cal game, via Fox Sports' Bruce Feldman.
Perkins should return at some point, but it seems tactful for the Bruins to rest him, considering what they have already lost to injury, against a team they can beat without him. Either way, Colorado does enough things well on offense to stay within three touchdowns in the Rose Bowl. It did, after all, take a better UCLA team to double overtime last season.
The Pick: Colorado (+20.5)
No. 3 Clemson at North Carolina State
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The Line: Clemson (-10.5)
Will they or won't they "Clemson?"
It's a question Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney would chew me out for asking—even rhetorically—but still deserves to be asked.
It doesn't deserve to be asked for anything Clemson has done wrong lately, though. It deserves to be asked because NC State is kinda sorta good. No matter how well Clemson has played this season, and no matter how hyper-focused it says it is on Week 9, it would be hard, if not impossible, to ignore next week's home game against Florida State.
So again: Will the Tigers "Clemson?" It depends on how you define that term. Technically, for the answer to be yes, they would have to lose outright—and that's not going to happen. But could they play a game on line with winning 20-17 at Louisville? Definitely.
Other than last week's Miami blowout, which took place in an echo chamber, that Week 3 trip to Louisville was Clemson's only true road game. NC State is 5-2 and roughly as good as the Cardinals, and quarterback Jacoby Brissett has always played well on big stages.
Clemson by a touchdown.
The Pick: NC State (+10.5)
Georgia vs. No. 11 Florida
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The Line: Florida (-2)
The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party between Florida and Georgia, much like the Red River Showdown between Texas and Oklahoma, is a neutral-site rivalry that most years ends up with one team entering on a high note and the other entering on a low note, but with the latter inexplicably beating the former.
It happened this season when the Longhorns beat the Sooners in Dallas, and it happened last season when the Gators beat the Bulldogs in Jacksonville. Georgia was fighting for a playoff berth when Florida, then 3-3, rushed for 418 yards in a 38-20 upset.
Following that trajectory, Georgia should be a strong bet to win. But it's hard to pull the trigger on an offense coached by Brian Schottenheimer, quarterbacked by Greyson Lambert and missing injured running back Nick Chubb.
The same reservations would have stopped most people from picking Florida last year, so really the best advice is to stay away. You can't pretend to know what's going to happen here, because what happens here is typically a crapshoot.
In that case, though, I'll happily pick against Schottenheimer. That's never really failed for anybody.
The Pick: Florida (-2)
No. 12 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
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The Line: Oklahoma State (-3)
Oklahoma State is an enigma. It's 7-0, but what has it really done?
Its only two games above the 76th percentile, according to the S&P+ ratings, came against UTSA and Kansas, a pair of teams which by that metric rank outside the national top 100. It has escaped with one-score Big 12 wins at Texas, versus Kansas State and at West Virginia.
In terms of competence, Texas Tech falls somewhere between Texas and West Virginia. This should be another one-score game.
The Red Raiders have looked shaky against Baylor, Kansas and Oklahoma, but they blew out Iowa State and nearly beat Baylor in their last two home games, and their Week 3 win at Arkansas looks better now that the Razorbacks are playing well again.
This is where the Cowboys should go down.
The Pick: Texas Tech
No. 15 Michigan at Minnesota
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The Line: Michigan (-13)
This one is strictly a numbers play.
Michigan ranks No. 2 in F/+, trailing only Clemson, while Minnesota ranks No. 75, four spots behind Western Michigan.
The Wolverines have played just two road games, losing at Utah and struggling on offense at Maryland, but both times their defense traveled. Even if it takes two quarters to kick-start the offense, the same way it did at Maryland, it won't take more than three touchdowns for Michigan to cover this number.
Its defense versus Minnesota's offense is that big of a mismatch.
The Pick: Michigan (-13)
No. 8 Notre Dame at No. 21 Temple
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The Line: Notre Dame (-10)
Temple is one of the best stories in the country and deserves to be ranked where it is. Its defense ranks No. 6 in S&P+ and will force Notre Dame to make big offensive plays to win.
The problem is that the Irish, unlike Temple's previous opponents, are capable of making those plays. Redshirt freshman quarterback DeShone Kizer has been a revelation, while running back C.J. Prosise, receiver Will Fuller and left tackle Ronnie Stanley have all played like legit All-Americans.
The presence of College GameDay in Philadelphia ensures two things: (1) Temple's crowd will be in rare form, and (2) Notre Dame will take Temple seriously. The crowd thing should ostensibly help the Owls, but Notre Dame has already played a night game at Clemson and knows how to handle itself in hostile waters. That leaves the "Notre Dame will take Temple seriously" theory and in effect makes GameDay's presence a negative.
Notre Dame ranks No. 6 in F/+ while Temple ranks No. 33. It hurts to lay the points against a defense so deep and talented, but the Irish have too much firepower, on both sides of the ball, to not eventually pull away and coast.
Even if it's close after three quarters, which is totally 100 percent possible, Notre Dame will create some distance late.
The Pick: Notre Dame (-10)
No. 8 Stanford at Washington State
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The Line: Stanford (-12)
Always take the points in a shootout.
That's the theory, and I'm sticking to it.
Stanford made me look dumb for backing its opponent two straight weeks, but the problems along its defensive line, which heretofore have not made a difference, should rear their ugly heads in Pullman.
Did you know, for example, that the Cardinal rank No. 127 in adjusted sack rate? There are only 128 FBS teams! Their pass rush is roughly the worst in college football, which doesn't bode well against a Mike Leach offense that picks apart teams who don't pressure it.
Does that means Stanford will lose outright? Not quite. Along with a Mike Leach offense, Washington State has a Mike Leach defense. Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey, who has quickly become a Heisman favorite, should total roughly 6 million yards.
Even so, this should stay within 12 points.
The Pick: Washington State (+12)
Other Top 25 Games
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Syracuse at No. 17 Florida State (-20)
Syracuse has been competitive, but this is a terrible spot. Any chance it had of catching Florida State in a lookahead scenario before next week's trip to Clemson died when Georgia Tech returned that field goal. Now Syracuse gets Angry Florida State, a team trying to prove it's still a contender. The 'Noles will treat the Orange like stress balls.
The Pick: Florida State (-20)
Maryland at No. 10 Iowa (-17)
If you're waiting for Iowa to fail, keep waiting. The Hawkeyes are for real and have a clear path toward going 12-0. They rank No. 11 in F/+, and while they've only won two games by more than 17 points, all but two of their opponents have been better teams than Maryland. Coming off a bye, they should sink the Terps by at least 20 points.
The Pick: Iowa (-17)
No. 14 Oklahoma (-39) at Kansas
The spreads keep getting higher when ranked teams play Kansas, and at some point David Beaty's team will cover. Might this be the week? It's really hard to say. Oklahoma running back Samaje Perine broke the FBS single-game rushing record (427 yards) against the Jayhawks last season, and last week he posted his first 200-yard rushing game since. But even in last year's record-breaker, the Sooners beat Kansas by "only" 37 points. This spread is just a click too high.
The Pick: Kansas (+39)
Tulane at No. 16 Memphis (-30)
Memphis matches up well against Tulane, a defense that holds its own against the run but struggles against the pass. With quarterback Paxton Lynch playing out of his mind, the Tigers have become a top-10 national passing offense, according to the S&P+ ratings. The only question here is motivation: Will Memphis get up for Tulane when it has Navy, Houston and Temple the next three weeks? My answer? Yes, enough to win, but maybe not enough to cover.
The Pick: Tulane (+30)
Vanderbilt at No. 18 Houston (-10.5)
Vanderbilt is a poor man's Louisville, a team Houston beat 34-31 in Week 2. But the Cougars didn't deserve to win that game: They played in the 34th percentile, according to the S&P+ ratings, and had a win expectancy of 26 percent. Vanderbilt, despite its decrepit offense, is the best team Houston has played since the Cardinals, which makes this a game worth watching. Derek Mason's defense should keep it within 10 points.
The Pick: Vanderbilt (+10.5)
Oregon State at No. 13 Utah (-23)
Oregon State is bad. Like, really bad. In its first year under head coach Gary Anderson, it ranks outside the F/+ Top 100. Utah was exposed last week at USC, but even if it's not a great team, it's still a very good one. As long as quarterback Travis Wilson doesn't sink it with interceptions, it can handle the Beavers by more than three scores.
The Pick: Utah (-23)
Week 8 Record: 9-7-0 (56.3%)
Overall Record: 68-70-2 (49.3%)
Note 1: Top 25 rankings refer to the Associated Press poll. All Week 5 spreads via Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com. All betting percentages (which side has seen more action) via Sports Insights. All advanced stats via Football Study Hall or Football Outsiders.
Note 2: There is no early line for Miami at No. 22 Duke. Hurricanes quarterback Brad Kaaya left the Clemson game with a head injury, and it's unclear if he will play. Because there is no line, we could not pick the game.
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