7-Step Drop: Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for the College Football Playoff
If last week was some sort of Separation Saturday, a wild and wacky Week 8 served to further clarify the race for the national title even if it may not have been the best slate of games on the schedule.
As we continue the descent to the postseason and enter the final weekend without any College Football Playoff Selection Committee rankings, 7-Step Drop decided to hit the pause button and figure out what could be the best- and worst-case scenarios for each conference. Somebody is getting left out, but who will it be?
It’s too hard to tell at this point, but one can certainly see one of these scenarios playing out.
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American Athletic Conference
Contenders: Temple, Houston, Memphis
Best case: The AAC is at the very least the front-runner for the Group of Five spot and will be enjoying a nice payday as a result at a minimum. A spot in the playoff is a long shot, but the door is slightly open for Memphis and even Temple.
In an ideal scenario, the Tigers run the table with emphatic victories over Houston, Navy and an undefeated Temple (who would beat Notre Dame this week) in the conference title game and then see Ole Miss win out and capture the SEC. Sitting with a perfect record and a win over the SEC champs, Justin Fuente’s squad could sneak into the No. 4 spot in the playoff.
One could also see the Owls running the table (with wins over Notre Dame and undefeated Memphis/Houston the rest of the way) and having a little chaos happen to the point where they sneak in, but that’s not quite as believable as a perfect Memphis squad getting the bid.
Worst case: Memphis, Houston and Temple all beat each other up while Toledo runs the table and thrashes everybody in its way. That gives the Group of Five bid to the Rockets and sees the AAC miss out on a nice check from the playoff.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Contenders: Clemson
Best case: The best and worst case are pretty much down to one thing and one thing only: Clemson running the table. That’s it, thanks to Georgia Tech’s upset of Florida State on Saturday. In a perfect world for the ACC, the Tigers go to 13-0 (very much a possibility) and earn the No. 2 seed to get a date at the Orange Bowl in the semifinal.
Worst case: One of Florida State, NC State, South Carolina or the ACC Coastal champion upsets Clemson and it winds up as the only ACC representative in the New Year’s Six bowls with a disappointing Peach Bowl bid.
Big 12
Contenders: Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Best case: After getting left out last year, the Big 12 sees chaos all around it with two-loss champions in the Pac-12 and SEC while Ohio State gets upset in the Big Ten title game. Combine that with Clemson suffering a loss and a one-point loss between Baylor and TCU. Then, the Big 12 goes from no teams in the playoff to two as the committee selects both the Horned Frogs and Bears to make it to the semifinals.
A more realistic scenario is TCU/Baylor remain undefeated until their post-Thanksgiving matchup and the winner gets a top-two seed and a date at the Cotton Bowl.
Worst case: Oklahoma wins against a beat-up TCU team, then loses to Baylor. Oklahoma State upsets the Bears but loses to Oklahoma in the Bedlam game. Then Baylor tops TCU but the committee punishes the Bears' strength of schedule again. The result is another year on the outside of the playoff looking in.
Big Ten
Contenders: Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa
Best case: The Buckeyes stay undefeated and do enough in the final month of the regular season to earn the No. 1 seed in the playoff. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Michigan State also wins out and beats an undefeated Iowa team to get into the final four. The Hawkeyes, too, would have a great case if they are perfect and holding up the Big Ten trophy at the end of the year. There are a lot of good options in the B1G when it comes to making the playoff.
Worst case: Michigan State beats Ohio State to get to Indianapolis for the conference title game, where it’s upset by an Iowa team that has two losses. Combined with undefeated Clemson and the Big 12 champion, the Big Ten gets left out in favor of a one-loss Notre Dame/SEC champion/Pac-12 winner.
Independents
Contender: Notre Dame
Best case: Temple, Pitt and USC all wind up back in the Top 25 by the end of the year despite losses to the Irish, with the Owls winning the AAC and getting the Group of Five spot to boot. The Stanford game at the end of the year serves as a de facto play-in game to the final four as a result of the Cardinal winning the Pac-12 and Notre Dame looking like a complete team. The committee then gives an 11-1 Irish squad a top-four spot since it’s playing at that level and the only blemish on its resume is to an undefeated Clemson team that was a close one on the road in the middle of a monsoon.
Worst case: Injuries continue to mount in South Bend and Notre Dame loses one or two more times and even misses out on a New Year’s Six bowl game. A spot in the Russell Athletic Bowl isn’t a bad finish considering how many key players Brian Kelly’s squad has lost, but it’s a little disappointing considering the Irish are currently right on the fringe of playoff contention.
Mid-American Conference
Contenders: Toledo
Best case: The Rockets run the table and the AAC beats itself up, giving Toledo the Group of Five spot and a chance to upset Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. Even with two Power Five wins and a perfect record, it still seems unlikely the Rockets get the nod over the AAC champ when it comes to the Group of Five bid without any help.
Worst case: Bowling Green upsets Toledo and the Rockets wind up in the GoDaddy Bowl while Maryland hires Matt Campbell before the MAC title game.
Pac-12
Contenders: Stanford, Utah
Best case: The Cardinal continue to blow out their competition and look like the team in the Top 10 that is playing the best. They end their season with wins over one-loss Notre Dame and Utah to earn a spot in the top four no matter what the SEC or other conferences do.
On the flip side, for the South Division representative, Utah runs the table and responds to its loss at USC by throttling the rest of its schedule, including UCLA with all eyes on Salt Lake City in November. Utah then beats a Stanford team that had just topped Notre Dame in the Pac-12 title game and see Michigan upset Ohio State and eventually wins the Big Ten. That gets the Utes in over...Alabama.
Worst case: Notre Dame beats Stanford, who then loses to two-loss Utah in the Pac-12 title game. That sends the Utes to the Rose Bowl but keeps the Pac-12 out of the playoff and the rest of the New Year’s Six bowls.
Southeastern Conference
Contenders: Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, Florida
Best case: Alabama or LSU runs the table and gets a shot at redemption against Ohio State in a playoff semifinal. Ole Miss and Florida could also win out to get into the final four, but both present their own pitfalls.
Worst case: Alabama loses to LSU at home. The Tigers lose to both Ole Miss and Texas A&M. The Rebels barely win the league (over a two-loss Georgia) and the entire SEC melts down as Memphis gets into the playoff over one of its teams.
On the plus side, a Stanford/Memphis title game sends Finebaum ratings into the stratosphere. Even Alabama or Ole Miss winning out could realistically see the SEC on the outside looking in if there are three undefeated teams and those two teams’ resumes don’t stack up to Stanford/Utah/Notre Dame.
Stats of the Week
- Washington State has a three-game conference win streak for the first time since 2003 and has scored 40-plus in three straight for the first time since 2001.
- Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes had six interceptions in 307 throws prior to the Oklahoma game, where he had four picks in 40 throws.
- Christian Hackenberg became Penn State’s all-time passing-yardage leader and completions leader against Maryland.
- A win over Rutgers was Urban Meyer’s 150th of his career. According to the school, he is undefeated in games played in October (14-0) and November (12-0) while at Ohio State. The Buckeyes also moved to within one game of the NCAA record for conference victories with their 28th straight Big Ten regular-season win. The record is 1992-1995 Florida State with 29 straight ACC wins.
- Florida State, meanwhile, fell short of its own NCAA record with a streak of 28 straight ACC games over the past three seasons getting snapped by Georgia Tech.
- Duke/Virginia Tech was the ACC’s first ever four-overtime game.
- Clemson’s 58-0 win over Miami was the worst in the Hurricanes’ record books.
- Temple has outscored its opponents 137-29 in the second half this year.
Quote of the Week
“It was crazy because we blocked it and I see it run across the line. I go from yelling ‘Get away from it’ to ‘run, run, run.’” - Georgia Tech’s Paul Johnson on the last-second blocked field goal to beat Florida State.
Tweet of the Week
Play of the Week/Sound from Saturday
Pre-Snap Reads
Stanford at Washington State
Strange things could be in the cards in Pullman on Halloween night with some #Pac12AfterDark action going a number of different ways. The Cardinal are playing as well as anybody, but their young secondary will have their hands full with Luke Falk and the Cougars’ terrific receivers. This one will be close for three quarters before Christian McCaffrey scores twice late to provide a nice margin for Stanford.
Notre Dame at Temple
The Irish are for real but face the first of their tough late-season tests with a visit to undefeated Temple. This one all comes down to who can stop the run best, no easy task with some quarterbacks who can create with their feet. Notre Dame gets the edge, but this one will be closer than expected for many considering the names on the front of the jerseys.
UNC at Pitt
How about this ACC Coastal matchup...being for the division? It’s not out of the realm of possibility. Pitt has played quite well and is close to being undefeated. UNC rolled off a bunch of wins after its season opener but came back down to reality a bit last week. We’ll roll with the home team in this one, but it’s pretty much a toss-up.
Bryan Fischer covers college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.
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