Tennessee Volunteers vs. Kentucky Wildcats: Complete Game Preview
The Tennessee-Kentucky football rivalry could reside next to the word "ownership" in the dictionary.
Even these past couple of years when the game has been played a little earlier in the season than normal, it hasn't changed the outcome. The Volunteers have won 29 of the past 30 meetings.
The only hitch came in 2011 as the first true sign that Derek Dooley's tenure at UT would be short-lived. That year, the Wildcats used wide receiver Matt Roark at quarterback as they stunned the Vols 10-7 to keep them from bowling.
Last year, despite UK's hot start to the season, Tennessee administered a thorough 50-16 thumping to keep coach Mark Stoops' team sliding in a season-ending skid.
Just as was the case last season, Kentucky got off to another strong start. But the past two weeks, the Wildcats looked average in a home loss to Auburn and a blowout setback to Mississippi State in Starkville.
Tennessee, on the other hand, may be the best 3-4 team in the country, as if that were any solace. The Vols lost 19-14 to Alabama this weekend to keep the run of close losses going. UT's four defeats were by a total of 17 points.
UT has a favorable schedule to close the season, but the biggest test may be Kentucky on the road. Here's everything you need to know about the game.
Date: Saturday, Oct. 31
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Place: Commonwealth Stadium, Lexington, Kentucky
TV: SEC Network
Radio: Vol Network, UK Sports Network, Sirius XM 190
Spread: Vols by 7.5, according to Oddshark.
Tennessee Keys to Victory
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Dobbs, again
Tennessee quarterback Joshua Dobbs got away with some dangerous passes against Alabama, but he also made some of the best throws of his season.
After a shaky start, the junior appears to be playing the best ball of his season, and he needs to continue it against Kentucky.
The Wildcats really struggled against Mississippi State senior star dual-threat quarterback Dak Prescott, giving up six touchdowns. They really didn't have an answer for his running or passing. Now, they get to face Dak Lite in Dobbs.
"They coached better, they played better and it starts with that guy," Stoops told WKYT.com's Dick Gabriel on Prescott's massive game. "Dak’s a heck of a football player."
Dobbs has that same kind of dynamic potential, even if he isn't quite as advanced as Prescott.
Against Alabama, Dobbs never really got loosed running the ball after the first quarter, but that was facing one of the nation's top rush defenses. Kentucky is in the bottom four in the SEC, and Dobbs should let it loose. The Vols need to watch that MSU game and try to duplicate what Dan Mullen did with his signal-caller.
Play-action
Tennessee runs the ball so much and so well that it's been a little surprising how little offensive coordinator Mike DeBord leans on the play-action passing game.
When he does, it seems to work much more often than not.
With UT trotting out a veritable M.A.S.H. unit at wide receiver, the Vols need all the help they can get to deceive defensive backs. That extra second helped guys like Josh Smith and Josh Malone get open even against Alabama's stellar defensive backfield.
The play-action passing game needs to be a bigger part of UT's offense moving forward, and against the inexperienced secondary of the Wildcats, it could produce some big plays.
Keep the heat
One of the biggest downfalls of UT's defense throughout the first half of the season was its inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks.
The Vols were able to do that against Alabama to the tune of five sacks, and though Jake Coker wound up with 247 passing yards on a handful of big plays, UT kept him scrambling for a big part of the day.
Junior defensive end Corey Vereen had his best game as a Vol, nearly doubling his career total of 2.5 sacks with two against the Tide. Derek Barnett benefited from a week off and appeared to have fresh legs. Jalen Reeves-Maybin was his usual, reckless self.
UT head coach Butch Jones said the improved pass rush was a major reason why the Vols held Bama to just two touchdowns, according to GoVols247's Ryan Callahan.
"We were able to generate a pass rush at times with four down (linemen), which was great. We needed that, and I thought they stepped up. Our front seven did some very good things. Again, five sacks, 10 tackles for loss—that’s a very productive game. We’ve challenged them, really, with their get-offs and impacting the quarterback, and we were able to do that.
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It wasn't just the sacks, either. UT dialed up more blitzes than it had all season, and Coker was under duress more than any opposing quarterback the Vols have played all year. They need that same heat against Patrick Towles.
Kentucky Keys to Victory
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Mistake-free football
Mark Stoops is doing a great job rebuilding Kentucky's program virtually from scratch, but they're not to the point of the status where they can overcome a bunch of mistakes.
The Wildcats aren't talented enough or deep enough to deal with a barrage of turnovers.
Patrick Towles threw two interceptions against the Bulldogs, and he was pulled in favor of talented freshman Drew Barker, who tossed one of his own. With the Cats turning it over and MSU's explosive offense turning them into points, it basically took the running game out of the equation.
When Kentucky is one-dimensional, that's not good news. They are next-to-last in the SEC in turnover differential, and Towles tossed nine interceptions to just eight touchdowns this year.
That may be reason enough to make a quarterback change.
Bring the Boom
Perhaps the biggest weapon in the SEC you've not heard of is Kentucky sophomore running back Stanley "Boom" Williams.
If you blink, he can be gone.
The Georgia native is a home-run hitter who can score from anywhere on the field. There have been a couple of times this year when UK had to abandon the run because of the score, and that's not good news for the Cats.
One of those times was against MSU, when he had 80 yards after one quarter but wound up with just 95 because Kentucky was playing from behind.
If Williams can stay healthy, he's one of the best players in the SEC at any position. He's seventh in the league with 551 rushing yards on a 6.8 average with three touchdowns. He's also 12th in all-purpose yards, and the Vols must account for him on every single play.
No common atmosphere
Commonwealth Stadium isn't one of those places in the SEC known for providing a massive home-field advantage, but Wildcats fans really don't like Tennessee.
At times in the past couple of years (the South Carolina win last year and the Florida loss this season), Kentucky got really, really loud. If the Wildcats are playing well, Commonwealth can get behind them.
Wildcats fans really dislike the Vols, and it would go a long way toward getting their team bowl-eligible with a win. If they get a big play early, UT may wind up dealing with a hostile environment the rest of the night.
Tennessee Players to Watch
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Justin Martin
Tennessee has struggled for much of the season in the secondary, especially at the position opposite Cameron Sutton.
Against Alabama, the Vols still had some issues, but the emergence of sophomore Justin Martin made them stronger at cornerback. The sophomore JUCO transfer was a talented recruit coveted by everybody in the SEC, and he's beginning to show why.
Even though he gave up a couple of big plays against Alabama, including one where he tripped getting entangled with a Tide receiver, he was in position to make several plays. He wound up with seven tackles and a pass break-up. He didn't look out of place at all.
Martin registered a massive play on his young resume as well, deflecting UA's two-point conversion attempt.
The Vols need his athleticism moving forward. With just one game-breaking receiver (South Carolina's Pharoh Cooper) left on the schedule, Martin could excel. He got a bit of a baptism by fire after the bye week against the Tide, and he held his own.
Now, it's time for him to develop into the star many expect him to be.
Jalen Hurd
The sophomore from Hendersonville, Tennessee, is becoming more of a household name around the SEC with his consistent production.
Even against the stingy Tide, the 243-pound running back finished with 95 rushing yards, and he is sixth in the league with 664 rushing yards and tied for fourth with eight rushing touchdowns.
Though he has been a great every-down back, he has yet to break many big runs. He's certainly capable, and the back end of the schedule is the time to do it, as the Vols get a break from facing such strong defenses against the run.
The Cats are 11th in the league allowing 172 rushing yards per game, so this is a big opportunity for Hurd. UK had better load the box to try to stop him. He may be the best running back they've faced all year.
Aaron Medley
There's no way after his 0-of-3 performance against Alabama that UT's sophomore kicker's confidence isn't shaken.
But UT's faith in him is still strong.
"We believe in Aaron Medley," Butch Jones said according to the Knoxville News-Sentinel's John Adams. "Aaron Medley is our kicker."
The Vols need him to be much, much better than what he's been. Medley has the leg to kick from anywhere inside 60 yards, but he's been wildly inconsistent this season, going 9-of-17. He's under immense fan scrutiny after missing kicks of 43, 51 and 51 yards. Had he made all three, UT may have beaten Bama.
If Medley is the kicker for the rest of the season, he has to turn it around. He has to "snap and clear," as Jones likes to preach. If he doesn't, he's likely to be standing on the sideline, and it could cost UT a win.
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Kentucky Players to Watch
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Patrick Towles/Drew Barker
There is no quarterback controversy in Kentucky—yet.
But redshirt freshman Barker, who was a star signal-caller from Hebron, Kentucky, that was hotly recruited as a 4-star quarterback and the sixth-rated pro-style passer in the country.
He got his first college action against Mississippi State, completing seven of nine passes, though he threw an interception on a screen pass in garbage time. KentuckySports.com's Jennifer Smith said Stoops noted it was just a matter of when he could work his future star into a game.
"Like we talked about, when is the right time? When is the right time? I'd like to be up by three or four scores one game and put him in or whatever, let him get his feet wet. That never happened all year. This was the first time where I just felt like I wanted to get him in the game. Patrick (Towles) did some good things. He struggled a bit like all of us.
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If Towles keeps throwing interceptions, this could shift to Barker's team. If he makes a couple of early mistakes against the Vols, the hook may come quickly. It's at least worth watching.
Josh Forrest
Even through some dismal seasons, Kentucky always has talented defenders such as Bud Dupree, Za'Darius Smith, Wesley Woodyard, Danny Trevathan and others.
The biggest playmaker on Kentucky's defense is 6'3", 255-pound middle linebacker Forrest. A year after recording 110 tackles, eight tackles for a loss, a sack and two interceptions, Forrest is filling up the stat sheet yet again as a senior.
This year, he has 58 tackles, 2.5 sacks and an interception. He's a definite NFL prospect who could be among the top four or five inside linebackers taken. His primary goal is likely to be stuffing Jalen Hurd and keeping him from controlling the game on the ground.
If Forrest has a huge game, it may mean the Vols have to find yards through the air to win.
Garrett Johnson
The sophomore receiver from Winter Garden, Florida, played high school ball with Tennessee defensive end Corey Vereen.
While Vereen enjoyed his breakout game against Alabama, Johnson's came a week earlier against another Alabama team in a 30-27 loss to Auburn. He tallied a career-high nine catches for 160 yards, and though he has only scored one touchdown this season, Johnson is fifth in the SEC with 33 catches for 512 yards.
The 5'11", 182-pound pass-catcher is becoming another little-known star and Towles' biggest target.
For much of the year, the Vols secondary has been torched by receiver after receiver, so Johnson has to be looking forward to the opportunity. Tennessee has to keep him from breaking free.
What They're Saying
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It wasn't the same ol' familiar refrain for the Vols after the latest loss against Alabama. Unlike years past, UT players expected to go into the den of eighth-ranked Alabama and come out with a win.
Perhaps that's the reason they stunned everybody in only losing 19-14 and holding a lead against the Tide with three minutes to play. Still, moral victories don't mean much, according to Vols senior offensive tackle Kyler Kerbyson, who told GoVols247's Wes Rucker afterward:
"…[I]t hurts, just like all the other ones. I tried to tell the O-line this, that we can’t get used to losing, because that happened before, when I was younger and we were here. We were used to losing. That’s what we did. Two years ago, when we came down here, guys came into the game thinking that we were gonna lose. They weren’t confident in themselves. This year, everybody in the locker room was thinking about a ‘W’. I’m really excited about that, and about that. I mean, we played really well. We just had a few plays that just didn’t go our way.
If you look up the score from two years ago, I mean, it was a blowout. It wasn’t even close. All you heard coming into the game was, 'Oh, my gosh, they’re so big, so strong, so great, they’re gonna be first-round draft picks, blah blah blah.' If you don’t think you’re the best person at your position going into the game, what’s the point?
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Knoxville News-Sentinel columnist John Adams chronicles years past and how the back end of Tennessee's schedule has been a blessing before and could be again this season as the Vols look to win out and finish 8-4. Doing so would be a major step forward.
"This season’s stretch run could be as uplifting as any, regardless of what came before. UT has lost three games it should have won, lost to Florida for the 11th consecutive time and suffered an agonizing loss to Alabama on Saturday to drop its record to 3-4. But a strong finish will soften the blows from all those mishaps. And this finish has the potential to be better than last season’s.
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Nobody is throwing in the towel for Kentucky after a blowout road loss to Mississippi State. They know they've got a huge opportunity in front of them, and they want to treat the loss as a learning experience, according to freshman tight end C.J. Conrad, who told the Courier-Journal's Jon Hale afterward:
"I just think that we kind of showed we’re young tonight. We go down first possession or second possession and score and a lot of things are going our way. As soon as something bad happens, we kind of fell apart. I think that’s a mentality we have to get over and just get mentally tougher."
Added coach Mark Stoops: "There's not one bit of panic. That's a good football team that beat us. We'll go back to work. Believe me."
Prediction
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Kentucky is a growing football program, and beating Tennessee not only would virtually guarantee a postseason berth, but it also would further endear coach Mark Stoops to the Big Blue Nation.
The only problem is this Vols team is battle-tested, and though they sit at 3-4, they've played well enough to be 6-1. Though the Vols aren't as deep as coach Butch Jones would like, they've found solid players to fill the spots of the many talented starters they've lost to injury.
This team cannot sleep on Kentucky following a gauntlet of games to start their season, and UT knows this. There's no way the Vols overlook the Wildcats with so much on the line.
Following a close loss to Alabama, the Vols know they can hang with anybody, and they'll be favored in every game through the remainder of the year with an opportunity to finish 8-4.
The biggest of those tests come Halloween night in Lexington. Win that game, and South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Missouri and North Texas shouldn't be as difficult. Lose it, and the frustration returns.
This is a game UT is certainly capable of losing and Kentucky is capable of winning. But seeing how Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott gave the Wildcats such fits running and passing should give Tennessee hope that it can run away with the game.
Force a turnover or two, and it may get lopsided. Boom Williams is an X-factor, but on the surface, there appears to be too much orange talent with which for Kentucky to contend.
Prediction: Vols 34, Kentucky 21
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
