Odds on Next College Football Coach to Be Fired
Job security is at an all-time low in college football, with more than half of the 128 FBS schools undergoing a change of leadership at least once since 2013. And this turnover is seeping more and more into the middle of the season, as evidenced by a whopping eight jobs opening up since August thanks to resignations, retirements and firings.
Don't expect this to slow down anytime soon, not with the high-stakes nature of the sport and the current climate in which the need to get a jump on finding the next coach has made an in-season termination more common.
Of the eight FBS openings in 2015, five—Illinois, Maryland, Miami (Florida), North Texas and USC—were because of firings. And odds are we could see more before the regular season is through, followed by a rash of pink slips during the offseason.
Who's most likely to get sent packing next?
We've placed odds on the most likely candidates, updating their current situations and detailing what their futures hold. The coaches are listed alphabetically rather than in order of job security.
Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech
1 of 12
Year at school: 29th
2015 record: 3-5, 1-3 in ACC
Overall record at school: 234-120-2
Frank Beamer has been at Virginia Tech since 1987, and since 1993 each of his Hokies teams has ended the season in a bowl game, including a national title game appearance and five other trips to BCS bowls. But barring a major turnaround, they won't be going anywhere this winter, and it's looking very much like a change is needed in Blacksburg.
Three of Tech's final four games are on the road, though if it were at home that wouldn't matter much either, since it has lost nine of 12 in Lane Stadium against FBS opponents.
Beamer is starting to accept his fate, it seems. This week he said via Andy Bitter of the Roanoke Times that "whatever is good for Virginia Tech, what is best for Virginia Tech, is what I'm into," though he didn't say outright that this would be his final season.
While the likelihood of the Hokies' being in the market for a coach for the first time in nearly 30 decades is growing, don't expect them to be officially searching during the season. Beamer is far too well-respected by the school for it to fire him; it will most likely wait for him to take the initiative and announce his retirement, probably after the season ends.
Odds: 100-1
Todd Berry, Louisiana-Monroe
2 of 12
Year at school: 6th
2015 record: 1-6, 0-3 in Sun Belt
Overall record at school: 28-40
Todd Berry led Louisiana-Monroe to its first bowl appearance in 2012, but it's been pretty much a downward plunge since then. The Warhawks went 8-5 that season and were 6-6 a year later, but last season they went 4-8 (despite a 3-1 start), and the 2015 campaign has been a disaster.
ULM has dropped five in a row and 13 of 15, most recently at perennial FBS doormat Idaho. Four of the next five are on the road, starting with Saturday's game at rival Louisiana-Lafayette, whom the Warhawks have beat just once since 2008.
If Berry were to get canned during the season, it would be the second time that's happened to him as a head coach. He spent three-plus seasons as Army's coach, from 2000-03, getting canned following an 0-6 start in that final year.
Odds: 8-1
Norm Chow, Hawaii
3 of 12
Year at school: 4th
2015 record: 2-6, 0-4 in Mountain West
Overall record at school: 10-35
Norm Chow waited 40 years to become a head coach, but with a fourth losing record in as many seasons staring him in the face, his look on the sidelines many nights has been that of someone hoping to be done with it all soon.
The Hawaii job is arguably the hardest at the FBS level because of the program's rigorous travel schedule, which in addition to four annual road games in the Mountain West Conference included trips to Ohio State and Wisconsin this season. The Rainbow Warriors are 0-5 on the road, getting shut out in their first three visits to the mainland and then blowing leads the past two weeks at New Mexico and Nevada.
June Jones turned Hawaii into a mid-major force in the mid-2000s, getting it into a Sugar Bowl behind a pass-happy offense that occupies plenty of space in the FBS record books. Under Chow, the Warriors have had very little success and have the fourth-worst offense in the country.
From 2000-11, Chow served as offensive coordinator at North Carolina State, USC, UCLA, Utah and the NFL's Tennessee Titans. Prior to that, he spent 27 years at BYU as an assistant.
All that might prevent Hawaii from firing Chow prior to the end of his contract, which runs through 2016, is money. "Hawaii's ability to pay a coach to go away is not clear," Steve Luhm of the Salt Lake Tribune wrote.
Odds: 7-1
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Larry Coker, UTSA
4 of 12
Year at school: 5th
2015 record: 1-6, 1-2 in Conference USA
Overall record at school: 24-29
If not for Larry Coker, UTSA might not have an FBS program and certainly wouldn't have gotten off the ground as quickly and successfully as it has. But whatever magic Coker used to get the Roadrunners up and running has seemed to go away, and what USA Today called "college football's best startup" in August 2014 is now just another struggling non-power program.
Coker, who won a national title with Miami (Florida) in 2001, was hired by UTSA in 2009, two years before its first season of football. He won eight games as an FBS independent in 2012 and was 7-5 the following season, yet last year a team overflowing with seniors stumbled to a 4-8 mark, and this fall has been a disaster.
The Roadrunners' only win came at UTEP, and a loss Saturday at winless North Texas could seal Coker's fate. Odds are, though, that the school would wait until after the season to work out a separation with the 67-year-old Coker, who deserves plenty of credit for getting the program up and running but might be wise to pass the torch to one of his assistants or let the school go in a different direction.
Odds: 50-1
Tim DeRuyter, Fresno State
5 of 12
Year at school: 4th
2015 record: 2-6, 1-4 in Mountain West
Overall record at school: 28-20
Tim DeRuyter spent his entire coaching career on the defensive side of the ball before taking the Fresno State job in December 2011, including two seasons at Texas A&M that included service as interim coach in a bowl game in 2011 after Mike Sherman was fired.
When he got to Fresno, though, the need to have a strong defense wasn't imperative since he inherited future NFL star Derek Carr, and behind the big-armed quarterback the Falcons won 20 games in DeRuyter's first two seasons.
Reality has set in for DeRuyter and Fresno since Carr graduated in 2013. It went 6-8 last season but won the Mountain West's West Division and thus got to play in (and lose) the Hawaii Bowl, despite a losing record. This year's team has 122nd-ranked scoring defense, giving up 40.9 points per game while averaging less than 300 yards on offense.
Fresno is on a bye this week and hosts Nevada on Nov. 5 before going to Hawaii and BYU. It's winless on the road, losing by an average of 30 points per game.
Odds: 15-1
Kyle Flood, Rutgers
6 of 12
Year at school: 4th
2015 record: 2-2, 1-1 in Big Ten (did not coach three games while serving school-instituted suspension)
Overall record at school: 25-19
Kyle Flood figures to be on borrowed time at Rutgers thanks to the way this season has gone, and not just because of on-field performance. The fact that he remains at the helm while so many other FBS coaches have been fired is nothing short of amazing.
Even before a game could be played in 2015, Flood's seat added some extra heat when it was revealed that the school was investigating him for alleged improper contact with a professor over a player's grade. That player ended up being one of several booted off the team just before the season started due to a theft arrest.
Flood was suspended three games by the school, during which Rutgers went 1-2. The Scarlet Knights won Flood's return game in dramatic fashion, making a major comeback to win at Indiana, but last week they lost 49-7 at home to Ohio State. Their next two games are at Wisconsin and Michigan.
"I support Kyle and my football team everyday, and we're totally focused on it," Rutgers athletic director Julie Hermann said this week, via Keith Sargeant of NJ.com.
Whether that remains the case after this season is over, though, is uncertain.
Odds: 10-1
Darrell Hazell, Purdue
7 of 12
Year at school: 3rd
2015 record: 1-6, 0-3 in Big Ten
Overall record at school: 5-26
Purdue doesn't have the same football tradition as some Big Ten schools, but one thing it can lay claim to is having never made a coaching change in the middle of the season. This, more than anything, might be the main reason Darrell Hazell can consider his job safe for at least another five weeks.
The Boilermakers are coming off a bye week, which would have been the perfect place to make a move. But Hazell remains employed, despite a five-game losing streak and a 1-18 record in conference play.
A 3-9 record last season was considered progress for Hazell after going 1-11 in his first year, but this fall the only win has come against an FCS school. The Boilermakers have been competitive against some top opponents, losing by only three at Michigan State, but 18 turnovers indicate a team that isn't organized and moving forward.
Odds: 10-1
Mike London, Virginia
8 of 12
Year at school: 6th
2015 record: 2-5, 1-2 in ACC
Overall record at school: 25-43
In an effort to boost morale and motivate the team before a huge game last November, Virginia athletic director Craig Littlepage announced that Mike London would return for the 2015 season.
The Cavaliers then proceeded to lose 24-20 at rival Virginia Tech, allowing a late touchdown to finish at 5-7 and miss a bowl game for the fourth time in London's five seasons.
That's very likely to be 5-of-6 unless Virginia suddenly makes a major turnaround, and it's hard to imagine London will be around for another season, based on how Littlepage couched his support last year.
"It's important for each of our sports programs to continue to show progress and follow a plan to compete for conference championships and in postseason competition to support the department's goals," Littlepage said, via VirginiaSports.com. "I trust the plan Mike has in place and believe his leadership provides the best opportunity for Virginia football to be successful in the future."
Granted, London faced an uphill battle this season thanks to an unfair nonconference schedule that included a trip to UCLA and games against Notre Dame and Boston College. Since ACC play began the Cavaliers have been a little more competitive, beating Syracuse in triple overtime and losing to a pair of 6-1 teams (Pittsburgh and North Carolina) on the road.
Three of the Cavs' final five opponents are currently below .500, but unless they win four of five they'll be going into 2016 with someone other than London at the helm.
Odds: 6-1
Mike MacIntyre, Colorado
9 of 12
Year at school: 3rd
2015 record: 4-4, 1-3
Overall record at school: 10-22
Had we been placing odds on the next coach to be fired a week ago, Mike MacIntyre's chances of surviving the season would have been much worse. He'd guaranteed a win over Arizona on homecoming weekend, but despite leading in the fourth quarter, Colorado dropped its 14th straight Pac-12 game.
That skid came to an end on Saturday when the Buffaloes pulled out a 17-13 win at Oregon State. It was just their second conference victory in 22 tries under MacIntyre, who went 10-2 in 2012 at San Jose State but has needed nearly three seasons to match that win total in Boulder.
Colorado has looked much better this year than in 2014 and is getting better at pulling out close games. But the outlook for the program's first bowl invite since 2007 isn't good, since the Buffs' remaining opponents are a combined 26-9, and because they opened the year at Hawaii, their 13-game schedule would require winning at least seven games to be bowl-eligible.
MacIntyre has probably earned himself at least one more year, assuming Colorado doesn't fall apart over the final five weeks.
Odds: 30-1
Paul Rhoads, Iowa State
10 of 12
Year at school: 7th
2015 record: 2-5, 1-3 in Big 12
Overall record at school: 31-51
Iowa State doesn't have the most lucrative of athletic departments, ranking 48th on USA Today's most recent account of revenues. Even with a small subsidy from the school, the Cyclones barely break even and can't really afford any major expenditures—such as those that come with a football coaching change.
However, a move might be necessary based on the complete lack of progress the Cyclones have shown on the field the last two-plus seasons. A sixth straight losing record seems almost a certainty unless Paul Rhoads' recent knee-jerk moves produce drastic improvements.
In addition to switching quarterbacks, naming sophomore Paul Lanning the starter over senior Sam B. Richardson for Saturday's visit from Texas, Rhoads also fired offensive coordinator Mark Mangino, despite ISU averaging more points, yards per game and yards per play than during 2014's 2-10 campaign.
"We were doing some things that helped us move into a different direction as we move into these last five games,” Rhoads said Monday to explain the changes, via Randy Peterson of the Des Moines Register.
It also could be a last-ditch effort by Rhoads to save his job.
Peterson wrote last November that Rhoads' hefty buyout—$750,000 per season that remains on his contract through 2021—combined with the costs associated with bringing in a new coach is a major detractor for ISU to make a change. But if the right boosters step up with a cash infusion, things could change.
Odds: 5-1
Scott Shafer, Syracuse
11 of 12
Year at school: 3rd
2015 record: 3-4, 1-2 in ACC
Overall record at school: 13-19
Scott Shafer has been coaching defenses at the college level since the 1990s, including from 2009-12, when he served as Syracuse's defensive coordinator. He was elevated to head coach after Doug Marrone left for an NFL job, and his Orange teams have been good, if not great, on defense during his tenure.
The offense, on the other hand, has left something to be desired throughout much of Shafer's time in charge. This year Syracuse is tied for 112th in total offense, gaining 342.1 yards per game despite having played a pair of overtime games.
Syracuse takes a four-game losing streak into a rigorous stretch that might make or break Shafer's future. The first two are on the road, starting with Saturday's trip to Florida State and followed by a game at Louisville.
Odds: 20-1
Kevin Wilson, Indiana
12 of 12
Year at school: 5th
2015 record: 4-4, 0-4 in Big Ten
Overall record at school: 18-38
Kevin Wilson began this season on the hot seat, yet thanks to an impressive 4-0 start against some decent competition, the vultures appeared to have backed off. Taking Ohio State to the limit in Indiana's Big Ten opener furthered the notion that Wilson might have the program headed in the right direction.
Then came a listless performance at Penn State, a 55-52 home loss to Rutgers and a 26-point defeat at Michigan State. In the last two games, the Hoosiers have been outscored 46-0 in the fourth quarter.
The Hoosiers are on a bye but return to action with home games against Iowa and Michigan, against whom Wilson is 1-4. He's 6-30 in Big Ten play, with 11 losses in the last 12 conference games.
Odds: 12-1
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
