Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Redskins Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Washington Redskins are just 7-12 both straight up and against the spread over their last two-plus seasons at home. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are only 3-7 SU over their last 10 road games, but 6-4 ATS. The Redskins are short home favorites for Sunday's battle with the Bucs.

Point spread: Redskins opened as four-point favorites; the total was 45.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.4-20.6 Redskins

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

Since losing their season opener badly to Tennessee, the Bucs are 2-2 both SU and ATS, after defeating Jacksonville two weeks ago 38-31 as one-point home favorites. Tampa Bay then had last week off.

The Buccaneers took a 20-7 lead late in the second quarter against the Jaguars, fell down 24-23 late in the third, but scored twice over a seven-minute span to take control and held on from there.

On the day, the Bucs out-rushed the Jags 183-55, as running back Doug Martin came up with his second straight 100-yard effort, won time of possession by a 35-25 margin and, most importantly, didn't commit a turnover.

In fact, rookie quarterback Jameis Winston has had two pick-less games this season; Tampa Bay won both, so its secret to success isn't much of a mystery.

Why the Redskins can cover the spread

Washington ran into a Jets team coming off its bye last week and lost 34-20 in New Jersey. The Redskins actually led that game at halftime, but they let New York quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick beat them with a touchdown scramble and two touchdown throws after that.

Two weeks ago, Washington pushed then-unbeaten Atlanta to overtime and was driving for a possible winning score. Then a Redskins receiver fell down and a Kirk Cousins pass went the other way for a Falcons pick-six, and that was the game.

Cousins has thrown eight interceptions this season, but the two games in which he didn't throw one, Washington won. How about that?

Smart pick

Tampa Bay is coming off a nice win, while Washington is coming off a road loss. But the NFL is a topsy-turvy environment, where what was up one week is down the next, and vice versa. That's why the smart money here resides with the Redskins.

Betting trends

The Redskins are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games in October.

The Redskins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games at home.

The Buccaneers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds-tracker app.