Bleacher Report's Week 8 College Football Playoff Predictions
Will your team make the College Football Playoff?
Unlike most media sites, Bleacher Report doesn't give you a yes or no answer. Instead, we use analytics and the AP poll as a substitute for committee rankings to assign your team a probability to make the playoff.
The sortable table shows the results, while you can find more information on the methods here. Now let me highlight some key results.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Baylor continues to win big
Baylor won big again, beating Big 12 foe West Virginia 62-38. My numbers give the Bears a 53.8 percent chance to make the playoff, best in the nation.
How can these odds be so high when Baylor hasn't played any elite teams?
Well, Baylor keeps winning by big margins over these inferior opponents. West Virginia actually got within 24 points of beating Baylor, its smallest margin of victory this season.
Margin of victory is a good predictor of future games. Since 2005, the team with the higher average margin of victory before bowl season has won 58.5 percent of bowl games. For comparison, the team favored by the markets has won 61.1 percent. You can make an even better predictor by taking margin of victory and adjusting for strength of schedule. Good computer rankings do this, and it plays a big role in my version.
Alabama finds its groove
In its first four games, Alabama threw on 52 percent of plays. It seemed like an odd choice given the Crimson Tide's traditional run-first tendencies and their question mark at quarterback. In the three games since, Alabama has run the ball on 64 percent of plays, giving opponents a heavy dose of Derrick Henry. The Crimson Tide have won each of these conference games by comfortable margins.
With its 41-23 win over Texas A&M, Alabama's playoff probability rises to 37.1 percent, third in the nation behind Baylor and Ohio State. The Tide will get tested by LSU and Mississippi State, but they look on track to win the division and play in another SEC title game.
Notre Dame continues to roll
Notre Dame's offense racked up 476 yards on 7.9 yards per play in a 41-31 win over USC. This unit continues to impress despite season-ending injuries to a number of starters.
However, the defense is lagging behind the offense as it allowed USC to gain almost 600 yards on 7.7 yards per play. Despite its struggles, Notre Dame has a 19.9 percent chance to make the playoff. The Irish now enter the softer part of their schedule. Over their next four games, their lowest win probability is 67.4 percent at Pittsburgh.
Head coach Brian Kelly's team ends its regular season at Stanford, and my numbers make the Fighting Irish a small underdog (47.4 percent win probability). If they win that game and end the season 11-1, the committee will have to decide how to treat them. The committee has stressed the importance of a conference championship. Will an 11-1 record with a close loss to Clemson be treated like a conference title? We don't know, and Notre Dame will spend championship weekend hoping a few top teams lose.
Stanford is still in the running from the Pac-12
Stanford scored an emphatic 56-35 win over UCLA on Thursday. Despite a disastrous loss at Northwestern to start the season, the Cardinal have a 17.6 percent chance to make the playoff.
While all-purpose back Christian McCaffrey gets the headlines, an improved Stanford offensive line also deserves credit, which didn't allow a UCLA defender to touch McCaffrey on a 28-yard touchdown run in the second quarter.
However, it's not all roses for Stanford. The defense allowed 506 yards to UCLA at 6.9 yards per play, as the unit has dropped off from the past two seasons. Stanford won by a comfortable margin due to an Alijah Holder interception return for a touchdown and a 96-yard McCaffrey kickoff return that set up the offense near the goal line. An insane catch by Francis Owusu around the body of a UCLA defender helped as well.
With the downfall of Oregon, Stanford has a 81 percent chance to win its division (a cross-division game with Colorado helps these odds). However, even if the Cardinal win the Pac-12 North, they still play Notre Dame and most likely Utah in the Pac-12 championship game. Stanford must win both to assure its spot in the playoff.
Look for Ohio State or Michigan State to win Big Ten, not Iowa
Ohio State and Michigan State entered the season as the favorites to win the Big Ten. Both have had their struggles, but they still find themselves in the thick of the Big Ten race after seven weeks.
Ohio State has a 56.4 percent chance to win the Big Ten East, a big part of its 43.9 percent chance to make the playoff. Who cares who's playing quarterback when you have Ezekiel Elliott, the constant home run threat who's averaging 6.7 yards per carry?
Michigan State has a 31.8 percent chance to win the Big Ten East and a 26.8 percent chance to make the playoff. These numbers would be much smaller without its miracle fumble return to beat Michigan. But as I discussed previously, the Spartans outplayed Michigan in key facets of the game.
Whoever wins the East most likely plays Iowa, an undefeated team with a 88.6 percent chance to win the Big Ten West. The numbers like the East Division champion to win this title game, as Iowa only has a 14.7 percent chance to make the playoff.
Ed Feng has a Ph.D. in chemical engineering from Stanford and runs the sports analytics site The Power Rank. You can find him on Twitter @thepowerrank.
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