SEC Football Q&A: If Alabama Wins Out, Is the Playoff a Lock?
Tuesday is SEC Q&A day here at Bleacher Report, and after Alabama's win over Texas A&M in College Station and LSU's nail-biter over Florida in Baton Rouge, there are plenty of questions to answer this week.
An SEC doomsday scenario has developed following Ole Miss' loss to Memphis this weekend. The Rebels' only conference loss is to Florida, and they still control their own destiny in the SEC West with a head-to-head tiebreaker over Alabama in hand.
"@BarrettSallee if bama wins out is there any way they could be left out of the CFP?
— chad lacy (@LacyChad) October 19, 2015"
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Yes, absolutely, in one specific scenario.
The only way would be in the doomsday scenario mentioned above where Ole Miss also wins out and finishes the season at 11-2 (7-1 SEC) with an SEC title in hand. In that case, Ole Miss would get the benefit of a conference championship and a win over Alabama to show off to the College Football Playoff selection committee, while Alabama would be stuck without as much as a division title and that September loss to the Rebels hanging over its head.
I'm not sure if Ole Miss would get in given that scenario, because a lot would depend on what else happened around the country. But I'm positive Alabama would not.
Alabama looks like it's playing some of the best football in the country right now and Ole Miss is scuffling. But if the Rebels get right defensively, overcome some serious injury issues and topple Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi State and the eventual SEC East champ in the Georgia Dome, that would change the perception of the Rebels in a hurry.
That's the only scenario that would prevent one-loss Alabama from making the playoff, though.
If the Crimson Tide win out, make the SEC Championship Game and win it, they most certainly will be in the College Football Playoff. Ohio State has to play Michigan State, with the eventual winner perhaps facing undefeated Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game if the Hawkeyes stay the course, either Clemson or Florida State has to lose at least once, and Baylor and TCU square off in November.
Enough one-loss teams will fall down the stretch to make room if Alabama wins out and claims the SEC title.
Definitely buy-in to first-year Florida head coach Jim McElwain.
At this point, why wouldn't you?
He helped develop quarterback Will Grier into a star before his year-long suspension hit, adjusted the offense for backup Treon Harris in a pinch against LSU and nearly pulled off a tough road upset, successfully pieced together the offensive line after hefty offseason attrition, hired the right defensive coordinator in Geoff Collins to keep things cooking at a high level and has his Gators as the unquestioned front-runner in the SEC East.
Are the Gators elite?
That's hard to say with such a small sample size of "Harris 2.0" on their resume this year. But what can't be denied is that a win over Georgia almost certainly solidifies the Gators as SEC East champs, and could even officially give them the title if Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Kentucky fall this weekend to Alabama, Missouri and Mississippi State, respectively.
Whether they make a push for this year's playoff or that has to wait until next year, this year's team has much more staying power than former head coach Will Muschamp's crew in 2012—which stayed in the national title hunt through rivalry weekend and earned a berth in the Sugar Bowl. That team wasn't complete. The offense finished 12th in the SEC in total offense at 334 yards per game, quarterback Jeff Driskel was hardly a weapon and Louisville exposed their flaws in New Orleans.
This one is.
The defense is still solid, McElwain has worked wonders for the offense and his staff is loaded with top-tier recruiters.
Oh without a doubt, yes.
Derrick Henry has been a monster for Alabama this year, racking up 901 yards and 12 touchdowns in seven games for the Alabama Crimson Tide. You saw against Georgia in that big 38-10 road win and again last weekend against Texas A&M when he rushed for a career-high 236 yards in the 41-23 win at Texas A&M that, when he gets rolling, he's almost impossible to bring down.
Unfortunately for Henry, Fournette is equally as impossible to break down and has put up better numbers—1,202 yards and 14 touchdowns—in one fewer game.
It's not just Henry who can make this gripe. Florida State running back Dalvin Cook has 955 yards and 10 touchdowns in spite of lingering hamstring issues, and is a huge reason why the Seminoles are undefeated.
Only two non-quarterbacks have won the Heisman Trophy since the turn of the century, and the quarterback-centric nature of the award makes it hard for multiple running backs to legitimately jump into the conversation.
Right now, it's Fournette who's driving the running back bandwagon. If that continues, Henry's chances to win the award are nonexistent.
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports. Statistics are courtesy of cfbstats.com.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report, as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
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