Journey to No. 1: How Each Top Prospect Could Be 2016 NBA Draft's 1st Pick
As the new season approaches, five prospects are expected to compete for No. 1 overall consideration in the 2016 NBA draft.
To no surprise, we're talking about four projected one-and-done freshmen, as well as a fast riser overseas.
And each will have a specific blueprint to follow if he plans on selling the eventual lottery winner. I designed these blueprints—or formulas for maximizing each player's stock—based on the prospect's specific situation and individual development.
For each, I also assigned a percentage that reflects his chances of executing the plan and going No. 1.
Dragan Bender, Croatia, 7'1", PF, 1997
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Emerge as a regular contributor
Dragan Bender's reputation has seemingly grown by the month. The MVP of February's Basketball Without Borders and a standout at Eurocamp in June, Bender recently generated buzz with impressive showings during a pair of exhibition matchups in the U.S.
Unfortunately, as a teenager in Euroleague, it will be difficult for him to put up consistent numbers in 2015-16. Through four games in October, he's averaging 14.8 minutes.
He'll be competing with and against pros and grown men overseas. Finding a way to crack Maccabi Tel Aviv's rotation and play close to 20 minutes per night would suggest Bender is further along than most 18-year-olds.
Plus, it will naturally result in more opportunities to build a No. 1 overall case.
Continue to show something new
Instead of looking for flashy stats and high-impact play, scouts will want to see Bender's versatility gradually come to life. It's what ultimately differentiates and possibly separates him as a 7'1" face-up Swiss Army knife.
Three-pointers, coast-to-coast takes, thread-the-needle passes, rim protection, perimeter defense, post moves—he won't have the chance to show everything off all at once, but he may be able to convince NBA evaluators that one day he'll tie it all together.
Quite frankly, if Bender can tie it all together, he could well develop into the best player from the class. He'll want to continuously flash new tricks and skills, which would enhance the intrigue tied to his NBA potential and upside.
No. 1 Overall Odds: 10 percent
Jaylen Brown, California, 6'7", SF, Freshman
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Sell two-way wing potential
With 6'7" size, a 222-pound frame, 7'0 ½" wingspan and showtime athleticism, Jaylen Brown already looks the part of an NBA wing. And though he was heavily recruited mostly because of his offensive prowess, his physical tools and IQ both bode well for his defensive outlook as well.
Quick, strong and long, Brown has flashed lockdown potential and the versatility to guard multiple positions.
Earning the coveted two-way label—shared by pros such as Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler and Paul George—should raise his value come NBA draft time.
Convince scouts his shooting stroke will become an everyday weapon
A nightmare in transition and a train attacking the basket, Brown picks up easy buckets and free points at the line. But it won't take long for opposing defenses to figure that out.
And at this point, his outside stroke isn't a core strength. He won't have to shoot the lights out—he just has to convince scouts his range and touch can improve to the point where his jumper will be an everyday weapon.
Surprising them with reliable perimeter shot-making and a three-point percentage that hovers around 40 percent would seem like a formula for generating No. 1 overall consideration.
Emerge as California's go-to option
If Brown wants to go No. 1, the occasional big offensive game won't be enough. He'll have to emerge as California's routine go-to option, something the team will be looking for after a 7-11 conference record and watching point guard Tyrone Wallace throw up 14.8 shots per game.
Showing he can create high-percentage shots against a set defense should strengthen his credibility as a potential top gun at the next level.
No. 1 Overall Odds: 10 percent
Brandon Ingram, Duke, 6'9", SF, Freshman
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Sell the mismatch
Standing 6'9" and wired with smooth, above-the-rim athleticism, Brandon Ingram's polished face-up attack sets up a mismatch at any level. He has a good-looking jumper, as well as the ability to separate into it with various pull-ups and step-backs. Meanwhile, a handle, quickness and body control make Ingram a threat to attack off the dribble.
He possesses the size to shoot over wings and the elusiveness to shake power forwards around the perimeter. Ingram isn't Kevin Durant, but that's the style of scorer he'll want to sell himself as.
Help carry Duke as its go-to option
Based on the roster, Ingram projects as Duke's go-to option right off the bat. And it would sure reflect favorably on his stock if he were able to run with that role.
To emerge as the No. 1 prospect for next June's draft, he'll have to give scouts a reason to believe he's capable of putting a team on his back. That means getting a bucket when the offense gets stagnant, scoring in bunches and coming up big in crunch time.
Taking a passive approach won't do him any favors with NBA scouts.
Convince scouts strength is not an issue
Listed at 190 pounds, it's impossible to look at Ingram and not recognize his skinny arms and legs. Possible lack of strength will be on the minds of scouts from opening night.
As skilled as Ingram is, he's not going to want NBA evaluators questioning whether he can execute against stronger defenders.
On the bright side, he just turned 18 years old in September. Kentucky freshman Skal Labissiere, another No. 1 overall candidate, will be 20 in March.
Still, while struggling with contact may not dent Ingram's stock, it won't make it any easier to maximize.
No. 1 Overall Odds: 15 percent
Skal Labissiere, Kentucky, 7'0", PF/C, Freshman
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Flash high skill level
Skal Labissiere's selling point ultimately revolves around his skill level for a 7-footer. In the long term, he projects as a big man whom coaches can feature in the offense. In the short team, he'll have to show flashes that suggest this will actually happen.
For Labissiere, it starts around the block and moves further toward the elbows and mid-range. Scouts will want to see crafty footwork and effortless jump hooks with both hands, as well as the shooting touch and back-to-the-basket moves that have drawn comparisons to LaMarcus Aldridge.
His skills fuel versatility and separate him from other naturally gifted bigs. To go No. 1, it's important that notion holds true during Labissiere's freshman year at Kentucky
Hold strong down low
It won't be the end of the world, but if Labissiere's lack of strength gets exposed on the interior, it could trigger hesitation from an eventual lottery winner who can't take risk with the No. 1 pick.
At times, we've seen Labissiere look uncomfortable after contact. He'll also want to show he can carve out space under the boards and play physical defense in the post. Though his frame appears capable of filling out, he's still 25 pounds lighter than Karl-Anthony Towns—last year's top pick whose game and position are relatively similar.
Show Gradual Improvement
Asking Labissiere to consistently dominate is unrealistic. But it's reasonable to demand he shows growth and the ability to adjust.
Towns did it last year. He averaged 8.2 points through the first third of the season, 9.4 during the second and 13.1 over the final one, which included a few performances that saw him take over.
Minimal progress from November to March could ultimately make it difficult for general managers to buy substantial future improvement. Scouts will want to see Labissiere learn from mistakes, adjust, pick up on nuances and continuously add polish at both ends of the floor.
No. 1 Overall Odds: 30 percent
Ben Simmons, LSU, 6'9", SF/PF, Freshman
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Convince scouts that perimeter scoring attack will improve
The appeal to Ben Simmons stems from the mismatch he poses as a 6'9" facilitator. He's a spectacular athlete, ball-handler and passer with a sensational basketball IQ.
But if an NBA team chooses to pass on Simmons, chances are it questions his scoring potential.
Despite his size, he's more of a perimeter-oriented player—only Simmons' jumper (29.4 percent from three as a senior at Montverde Academy, per MaxPreps.com) and one-on-one shot-creating ability could be sharper.
Simmons ultimately relies on transition opportunities, runners, floaters and buckets on his way to the rack. To maximize his chances of going No. 1, he'll want to show scouts he can take over stretches as a scorer when games slows down in the half court. And that should mean being able to generate offense around the arc via pull-ups and step-backs.
Look comfortable and effective playing off the ball
Simmons is most comfortable operating with the rock in his hands. But in a lineup with junior guard Tim Quarterman and fellow freshman Antonio Blakeney, Simmons will have to find ways to stay effective in a spot-up or cutter role.
Considering he'll likely start his NBA career without the freedom to dominate the ball, it's important for him to show he can adjust and contribute as a complementary weapon.
Improving that catch-and-shoot stroke would surely help in this department.
Make teammates better
The numbers are going to be there for Simmons, who'll fill up box scores and possibly flirt with triple-doubles. But his goal by March should be to establish a reputation as a player who makes his teammates better. It's a basketball cliche, though one that's highly valued.
Given Simmons' projected role and particular skill set, he's one of the few players who are actually capable of making the game easier for the guards, shooters and bigs. Doing so would allow every general manager to view him as a fit, regardless of the roster or system.
No. 1 Overall Odds: 35 percent
