Breaking Down Who'd Win Each of the 4 Potential World Series Matchups
And so it is down to four.
Four teams left in the 2015 MLB playoffs, and four possible World Series matchups.
The New York Mets own a 2-0 edge over the Chicago Cubs in the National League Championship Series with the scene shifting to the Windy City for Game 3 on Tuesday.
The Kansas City Royals, meanwhile, hold a 2-1 advantage in the American League Championship Series over the Toronto Blue Jays, who rumbled to life with a huge win Monday north of the border.
The point is, nothing's settled. All potential Fall Classics remain firmly in play: Mets-Royals, Mets-Blue Jays, Cubs-Royals and Cubs-Blue Jays. They're all compelling, and they'd all deliver must-watch intrigue.
But who would win?
Let's parse that question, breaking down each permutation and picking a theoretical champ, using head-to-head results when applicable, plus individual strengths and weaknesses and a dollop of gut feeling.
In reality, we'll get one World Series winner, and we'll happily take it. But as long as there are four possibilities dangling out there, why not pick 'em all?
Matchup No. 1: Mets vs. Royals
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The Teams
The defending AL champion Royals finished the regular season with a 95-67 record and easily coasted to a division crown. K.C. then dispatched the upstart Houston Astros in a hard-fought, five-game division series.
The Mets, meanwhile, stormed past the favored Washington Nationals to win the NL East with a 90-72 mark, then defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers in five games in the NLDS.
The Gist
The Royals' attack is based on a well-balanced lineup, speed, defense and strong late-inning relief. Kansas City's biggest weakness is probably its starting rotation, where mercurial right-hander Yordano Ventura and trade-deadline addition Johnny Cueto have each posted plus-6.00 ERAs in the postseason.
New York counters with a stellar starting corps headlined by the hard-throwing trio of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey, who have combined to strike out 56 hitters in 38.2 playoff innings.
The Mets have an offense, too, headlined by Daniel Murphy, who has found a magic stroke in October, homering in four straight postseason contests and launching five blasts overall.
Key Matchup
The Royals and Mets never locked horns this season, but Royals hitters tied for the fourth-best average in baseball against right-handed pitchers. And the Mets' top three starters are all righties.
If Kansas City can put pressure on New York's young arms, it could slow a squad that has looked championship-caliber thus far.
The Favorite
This is virtually a toss-up, but we'll give a slight edge to the Royals because of their recent postseason experience, home-field advantage (remember, the AL won the 2015 All-Star Game) and ability to rake against right-handers.
Who Would Win?
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Kansas City will need at least serviceable performances from its starting pitchers. And after steady right-hander Edinson Volquez, there are reasons to question the duo of Ventura and Cueto.
Cueto has held Mets hitters to a .246 career average, while Ventura has never faced a bat in New York's lineup in a big league game except for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, who is 1-for-7 against him.
The Mets would enter this series armed with a potent rotation. But take K.C.'s offensive success against righties and add the fact that they've posted a 55-31 mark at Kauffman Stadium in the regular season and postseason combined, and the scales tip slightly in the Royals' favor.
Prediction: Royals in seven.
Matchup No. 2: Mets vs. Blue Jays
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The Teams
The Blue Jays soared to a 93-69 regular-season record after significantly bolstering their roster at the trade deadline, winning the AL East and making the playoffs for the first time in 22 years.
And they've got special history against the Mets—specifically, the December 2012 trade that sent knuckleballer R.A. Dickey to Canada in exchange for a package that included Syndergaard and catcher Travis d'Arnaud, another key piece of New York's current puzzle.
Many, including Maria Guardado of NJ Advance Media, have argued that the Mets won that trade. Either way, it would provide a fascinating backdrop and a compelling storyline.
The Gist
The Blue Jays led all of baseball in runs scored, home runs hit and a host of other statistical categories in the regular season. And when they've succeeded in the playoffs, it's been largely on the strength of their lumber.
The Mets, as mentioned, counter with a stable of power arms, which would make this a legitimately epic showdown, as SB Nation's Grant Brisbee highlighted:
"[You] have the absurd lineup of the Blue Jays against the young pitching of the Mets, and if the Mets are in the World Series, you know they're on something of a hot streak. I'm not seeing a path to the pennant for the Mets that includes a lot of 10-7 slugfests, which means we'll be so jazzed to watch Jacob deGrom throw to Jose Bautista, or for Syndergaard to try to sneak a 100 mph fastball past Edwin Encarnacion.
"
You're already popping your popcorn, aren't you?
Key Matchup
David Price, the Jays' ostensible ace, has stumbled in the playoffs, surrendering 13 runs in 16.2 innings. And young right-hander Marcus Stroman, who missed most of the season with a busted ACL, owns a 4.19 ERA in three postseason starts.
Dickey has made just one start, lasting 4.2 frames in the ALDS against the Texas Rangers. He figures to get another crack against his old club, which he picked up a win against in Toronto this season.
Overall, Dickey has held Mets hitters to a .208 career average, suggesting the veteran right-hander could make the aforementioned trade look pretty good for Toronto after all, at least for one game.
The Favorite
Again, this one would be exceedingly close, with big arms and big bats colliding.
The home-field advantage might nudge the odds toward Toronto, but it'd be as knotted as the teams' 2-2 head-to-head regular-season record suggests.
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Who Would Win?
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The Blue Jays swung it against everyone this season, but they fared especially well against left-handers.
Their .818 OPS against lefties was nearly 30 points higher than their mark against right-handers, and they also posted a better batting average against southpaws.
Overall, Mets pitchers—and, again, their big three are all righties—limited Toronto's bats to just eight runs in four games this season. To be fair, all of those games were played in June, before the Jays truly took off.
Still, if you're looking for an angle, there you go. Add a little more magic from Murphy and perhaps Cespedes, and you've got the makings of the first World Series parade in Queens since 1986.
Prediction: Mets in six.
Matchup No. 3: Cubs vs. Royals
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The Teams
It's already been something of a dream season for the Cubs, who finished 97-65 before dispatching the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Wild Card Game and knocking off the rival St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS.
Now, the Cubbies have their sights trained on the franchise's first Fall Classic appearance since 1945 and maybe, just maybe, their first championship in more than a century.
When you spell that out, the Royals' 30-year title drought looks downright pedestrian.
The Gist
The Royals are built around speed and situational execution, while the Cubs' young hitters aim for the fences.
On the pitching side, the Cubs boast a better top of the rotation with playoff-tested lefty Jon Lester and NL Cy Young hopeful Jake Arrieta, while the Royals' have a slight advantage in the bullpen (though Chicago's relief corps has a lower ERA in the postseason to this point).
The Cubs won two of three regular-season games against the Royals, but each of Chicago's victories was decided by a single run.
Key Matchup
Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, two of Chicago's All-Star offensive anchors, are hitting .185 and .167 in the playoffs, respectively.
But both players could break out at any time, and they went a combined 7-for-20 with a double and a triple against K.C. this year. Plus, Bryant was 2-for-3 against Cueto, who started his season in the NL Central with the Cincinnati Reds.
The Favorite
This would be yet another air-tight series, though experience and home-field advantage seem to tilt it in the Royals' direction.
Plus, after 107 years of heartbreak and futility, can the Cubs really be favorites?
Who Would Win?
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The Cubs' kryptonite all season was the strikeout, as they whiffed more than any team in baseball. And so far in the playoffs, Royals pitchers lead the pack with 85 punch-outs.
At the same time, K.C.'s arms have given up the most home runs in the postseason, and that plays right into Chicago's big-swinging hand.
Another notch in the Cubbies' column is the 48-33 mark they posted away from Wrigley Field this season, the best road record in the game. That could neutralize the Royals' home-field advantage.
Assuming Lester and Arrieta bring their best stuff, this is a nail-biter that'll go Chicago's way, meaning the Royals would lose an agonizingly close Fall Classic for a second straight year.
Prediction: Cubs in seven.
Matchup No. 4: Cubs vs. Blue Jays
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The Teams
We've talked about every team now, so you know where the Cubs and Jays stand coming in.
It's worth noting, however, that Chicago won four more games than AL East-winning Toronto in the regular season, but finished in third place because of the stiff NL Central competition.
The Gist
Here is a matchup that pits raw power against even more raw power. If you dig the long ball, this is the series for you.
Beyond that, you'd get the best offense in baseball versus a Cubs pitching staff that led both leagues in strikeouts and opponents' batting average.
You'd get Josh Donaldson, the potential AL MVP, against Arrieta, the possible NL Cy Young.
These clubs didn't meet in the regular season. If they do in the World Series, it'll be worth the wait.
Key Matchup
Lester has some history against the Jays' lineup from his days in the Junior Circuit, and he's seen a lot of Bautista in particular.
The Cubs southpaw has held the Jays outfielder to a .230 average in 61 career at-bats, but of the 14 hits Bautista has against Lester, three have been doubles and five have left the yard.
"I think this is a coming-out party for Jose," Blue Jays skipper John Gibbons said on Saturday, per David Waldstein of the New York Times. "He's been one of the top players in baseball for the last five or six years. But we never got to the postseason. I don't think he’s had a chance to show off how good he is."
If he digs in against Lester on the game's biggest stage, he'll get that chance.
The Favorite
Sorry to do the broken-record thing, but this is another extremely close call. That's the beauty of this year's MLB final four: There's nothing but stellar possible matchups.
In the absence of any obvious upper hand, we'll tab Toronto as the favorite on the strength of its offense, home-field advantage and the Cubs' long losing history.
Who Would Win?
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Yep, we're picking the Cubbies again.
If they can dig out of their current 2-0 hole against the Mets, it says here they'll overcome the mighty Jays (or Royals).
There's the impressive road record we already mentioned. There's the fact that the Blue Jays' pitching staff has wobbled in the playoffs, posting a 4.32 ERA.
But mostly, we're going with our gut here, casting aside billy goats and Steve Bartman fever dreams and assuming that if Chicago somehow manages to get this far, they'll go all the way and get that King Kong-sized monkey off their back.
Prediction: Cubs in six.
All statistics current as of Oct. 19 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
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