
Royals vs. Blue Jays: Keys for Each Team to Win ALCS Game 3
With Game 3 of the American League Championship Series looming against the Kansas City Royals, the Toronto Blue Jays got a vote of confidence from an unexpected source.
While working as a MLB analyst on Fox, Alex Rodriguez warned it's much too soon to count out the Jays.
"Anyone who writes them off, I think they're making a mistake," Rodriguez said. "Trust me, I played against these guys just a few weeks ago. They have power, they have great pitching and they're going up to Toronto. They're relentless up there and almost impossible to beat at home."
Relentless, indeed. The Jays' 53-28 record at Rogers Centre tied for the best mark in the AL during the regular season.
With Marcus Stroman set to face off against Johnny Cueto, these are the biggest keys as Toronto attempts to jump-start a comeback and the Royals try to move within a win of a return trip to the World Series.
Key No. 1 for the Royals: Watch Out for the Righties
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With right-handed mashers like Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Chris Colabello and Troy Tulowitzki stacked in the middle of the lineup, the Blue Jays look like a tricky matchup for Cueto.
During the Dominican's stint with the Royals, righties gave Cueto all sorts of problems. In his 13 starts, they torched the 29-year-old to the tune of a .330 average while clubbing seven jacks in 41.2 frames.
As if those numbers weren't daunting enough, Cueto also wobbled badly on the road for the AL Central champs. In seven starts away from Kauffman Stadium, Cueto ran up a 4.98 ERA.
Based on Cueto's recent track record, it's far from a lock that the starter will manage to match his American League Division Series Game 5 gem. In that outing, Cueto became the first AL pitcher to retire the final 19 batters since Don Larsen accomplished that feat in his perfect game for the New York Yankees in the 1956 World Series, per the MLB Stat of the Day Twitter account.
Key No. 1 for the Blue Jays: Grab an Early Lead
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With the Blue Jays already trailing two games to none in this series, the team simply can't afford to go down early in this clash.
What the Jays need to do is grab an early edge and give the home crowd, which has been downright electric during the postseason, a reason to get loud.
The perfect way to do so would be for the powerful club to produce its first home run of the ALCS. Encarnacion is a prime candidate to make that happen, as the designated hitter has enjoyed plenty of success in his limited chances against Cueto. Encarnacion is 4-for-7 with a bomb against the Royals starter.
Getting the fans into the game will also give a big boost to Stroman, who has been filthy at home. In four starts at the Rogers Centre (two in the regular season and two in the playoffs), Stroman has allowed six earned runs.
"That's what all the preparation and all the hard work is...to be able to take the ball and go out in pressure situations," Stroman said, per Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star. "And I feed off the energy of the crowd and my teammates, and I'm looking forward to being out there."
For the Jays, handing an early lead to a pumped-up Stroman is Step No. 1 in the process of clawing back into this series.
Key No. 2 for the Royals: Watch Out for Stroman's Sinker and Curve
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The Royals haven't seen much of Stroman since he arrived in the majors in May 2014.
Ben Zobrist leads all Kansas City players with five at-bats against the 24-year-old. For the likes of Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Perez and Alex Rios, Game 3 will mark the first time they've ever faced Stroman in a big league contest.
Due to that lack of experience, following a patient approach early on would be a shrewd move as the Royals attempt to gain some familiarity with the rising star, who boasts a six-pitch arsenal, per Brooks-Baseball.net.
In his two October starts, Stroman has been highly reliant on his sinker, throwing it 54.5 percent of the time. And the pitch has been flat-out nasty, as the opposition has hit just .206 against it in his six outings (four regular-season starts and two in the postseason).
Meanwhile, his curveball, which he throws less than 12 percent of the time, has been untouchable. In 2015, Stroman has yet to give up a hit against his hook.
Key No. 2 for the Blue Jays: Figure Out How to Quiet the Lefties
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The Blue Jays have a lefty problem.
In Game 2, left-handed hitters drove in four of the Royals' six runs during the home team's comeback win. Eric Hosmer and Alex Gordon both collected an RBI, while Mike Moustakas pushed across two runs.
For Toronto manager John Gibbons, finding a way to silence the likes of Hosmer, Gordon and Moustakas will be no easy task, as Aaron Loup is the only southpaw available in the bullpen. In Game 2, Loup only recorded one out in the eighth inning and dished out walks to Hosmer and Kendrys Morales while allowing a hit to Moustakas.
The good news for Gibbons is Stroman hammered lefties in his brief time on the mound in 2015, limiting them to a .194 average. As for options out of the pen, using Ryan Tepera could be worth a shot. In 14.2 innings of work, Tepera held left-handed hitters to a .137 average, but he did allow three homers.
If the Jays are leading after seven, a six-out save for Roberto Osuna is a possibility. In 2015, the rookie shut down just about everyone he faced, holding right-handed batters to a .174 average and left-handed batters to a .206 average.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs and MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.

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