Bowl Projections 2015: Projecting Teams for Every Selection Committee Matchup

It's never too early for projections, and there are plenty to be made when it comes to college football. It's the second year of the new playoff system, and fans were treated to some exciting games last year, including the Ohio State Buckeyes finishing off an almost-perfect season (14-1) against the Oregon Ducks in surprising blowout fashion in the first College Football Playoff.        

With this new system, the College Football selection committee chooses the two playoff semifinal matchups as well as the Sugar, Rose, Fiesta and Peach Bowls. Seven weeks into the season there are some teams separating themselves from the pack, but one late loss could always do them in.

Here are projections for those games the committee selects and some analysis of what it means for the Power Five conferences. 

Date	Bowl	Location	Matchup	Predictions
Dec 31	Peach	Atlanta	At-large selections	Toledo vs. Florida St.
Jan 1	Sugar	New Orleans	Big 12 vs. SEC	TCU vs. Alabama
Jan 1	Rose	Pasadena, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Michigan State vs. Utah
Jan 1	Fiesta	Glendale, Ariz.	At-large selections	Stanford vs. Iowa
Dec 31	Orange	Miami, Fl.	Semifinal	(1) Ohio State vs. (4) Clemson
Dec 31	Cotton	Arlington, Texas	Semifinal	(2) Baylor vs. (3) LSU

Orange Bowl (semifinal): No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 4 Clemson Tigers

When it comes to the four playoff teams, Ohio State seems to be the consensus No. 1 selection among experts. The Buckeyes are ranked first in the both the AP Top 25 and Amway Coaches polls released Sunday. They also have one of the easier schedules among the elite teams in the country—ranked 48th, per Team Rankings—and have still not lost since early 2014. 

However, the success has not come without a few struggles. They have seven-point victories against the unranked Northern Illinois Huskies and the Indiana Hoosiers. The quarterback position is filled with talent, but head coach Urban Meyer dealt with a quarterback controversy earlier in the year.

Starting quarterback Cardale Jones, who was briefly benched during the Northern Illinois game, changed his Twitter bio to "third-string QB at The Ohio State Oh Wait, second string" before removing that line once his followers called him out.

The QB controversy hasn't mattered much, though. Despite the fact Jones started this week against Penn State, Barrett was clearly more effective after he took over, and the Buckeyes keep on winning.

The final spot in the playoff picture belongs to the Clemson Tigers. In addition to being undefeated with a nice 24-22 win against Notre Dame under their belt, a week ACC helps their case. The only team that could defeat them, the Florida State Seminoles, has to play at Clemson and will leave with a loss.

It's perceived that Clemson will fall flat on the big stage, and the term "Clemsoning" has circulated to explain a team losing a game it should win. However, the Tigers already have beaten the ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish (currently No. 11 on AP poll), and their head coach, Dabo Swinney, doesn't believe his team fits that label.

Chip Patterson of CBS Sports noted a reporter asked Swinney a question after the Tigers defeated Georgia Tech that included the term "Clemsoning," and he did not like it.

"

I think it's ridiculous that you're even asking me that question. That you even say the word. I mean I'm serious. I'm sick of it. I don't even know why we bring up the daggum word. How about some of these other teams that lose to unranked opponents all the time. That's our thirty-third win versus an unranked opponent. We haven't lost to an unranked opponent since 2011, but I have to come to a press conference in 2015 and get asked that? And that's all media bullcrap.

"

Ohio State, on the other hand, doesn't have that problem. The Buckeyes are coming off a national championship season and have won 20 straight games. It could be 26 straight before the semifinal game.

Cotton Bowl (semifinal): No. 2 Baylor Bears vs. No. 3 LSU Tigers

When it comes to the next three playoff spots, there are four or five teams who have a great shot, but it will be the Baylor Bears and LSU Tigers. Baylor is averaging nearly 64 points per game and has rarely been challenged this season.

It does have to play on the road against the TCU Horned Frogs, who are ranked third in the Amway Coaches Poll and fourth in the AP poll. But Baylor defeated them 61-58 in Waco, Texas, last year, and its offense should carry them to a win in Fort Worth.

LSU's Leonard Fournette is running over everyone and became just the 10th back in college football history to reach the 1,000-yard mark five games in to the season, according to Jim Kleinpeter of the New Orleans Times Picayune. He will help lead the Tigers to an undefeated regular season and lock down the third spot. 

ESPN's Joe Schad, like most everyone else, is impressed with the sophomore Fournette. He calls him the best running back in the land even when praising someone else.

 It should be a great matchup between teams with two electric but different types of offenses. 

Fiesta Bowl: Stanford vs. Iowa

Stanford and Iowa are having great seasons but are facing different problems on their routes to the national championship.

The Cardinal have a schedule that could allow them to win the rest of their games, but they already have dropped one to Northwestern earlier this year. They also will most likely have to play the Utah Utes in the Pac-12 Championship Game, where a loss will completely knock them out of the playoff picture and into the Fiesta Bowl. 

Iowa, on the other hand, hasn't lost and doesn't have another currently ranked team on the schedule—that is until it meets Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. It won't be getting past the Buckeyes there, but it will still be an amazing season for a Hawkeye team that was projected to finish fourth in the Big Ten West Division, according to the Cleveland.com media poll (h/t NCAA.com).

Rose Bowl: Michigan State vs. Utah

In this scenario, the Pac-12 is left out of the playoff picture after having Oregon in the championship game a year ago. However, there is talent in the conference, and the Utah Utes are sitting at the top right now.

They are ranked third in the AP poll and seventh in the Coaches Poll, but Utah will still end up on the outside looking in because there could be multiple undefeated teams by the end of the season. The Utes also have a chance to drop a road game at the Arizona Wildcats and still have to play the UCLA Bruins at home.

Not everyone agrees with that analysis, especially Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham. There is certainly an argument to be made that Utah is the best team in the country, and it did receive 16 first-place votes in the latest AP poll. Whittingham however, still thinks his 6-0 Utes are not viewed as a viable contender. He told Bleacher Report's Greg Couch they will probably always feel like the underdog.

"Absolutely," he said. "We've played with a chip on our shoulder for a lot of years. We'll continue to do so."

The Michigan State Spartans may be undefeated coming off one of the most improbable victories ever on Saturday against the rival Michigan Wolverines, but they won't get past Ohio State and will be relegated to the Rose Bowl, a pretty nice consolation prize.

Their winning play is still worth a look, per ESPN CollegeFootball:

Sugar Bowl: TCU vs. Alabama 

TCU's offense is one of the best in the land, but its defense is suspect, yielding nearly 27 points per game. The Horned Frogs have won games against Texas Tech and Kansas State Wildcats despite giving up at least 45 points in both games. That will most likely cost them against Baylor and in the national title picture as well.

An early-season loss by the Alabama Crimson Tide to the Ole Miss Rebels will cost them a chance at the title game, but with a projected two losses, they should still end up against TCU in the Sugar Bowl. Coach Nick Saban's team has bounced back nicely since the early loss with four straight victories.

Three of the wins have been by more than two touchdowns, including a 41-23 victory Saturday against a ranked Texas A&M Aggie squad. 

Fournette and LSU may have to travel to Alabama but will still leave with a victory, and the Crimson Tide will test their stout defense against the uptempo TCU offense.  

Peach Bowl: Toledo vs. Florida State

The surprising Toledo Rockets could easily run the table and find themselves as a non-Power Five conference team playing in the Peach Bowl against a talented Florida State Seminoles squad.

The Rockets entered the polls in Week 7 and have already beaten Power Five teams Arkansas and Iowa State. And they don't have anyone on their schedule who poses a true threat. Their undefeated season will be impressive but not enough to break into the playoff picture. In this scenario, however, they would have a chance to prove they are legitimate with a win against Florida State.

The Seminoles have not lost yet, but a road date with Clemson will give them their first defeat. They may have lost quarterback Jameis Winston, but they keep winning. After Clemson, only Florida has a chance to beat them, but they are without starting quarterback Will Grier after a suspension.

This may not be the most intriguing matchup on paper, but it will give fans a chance to root for David to knock off Goliath.

Conference Picture

There is a long way to go, but here's a look at the conference breakdown of the CFB selection committee if the projections hold true.

Conference	Total Teams	Playoff teams
Big Ten	3	1
SEC	2	1
Big 12	2	1
ACC	2	1
Pac-12	2	0
Other	1	0

There is always going to be at least one Power Five conference left out of the playoffs, and right now, it's the Pac-12. The Big 12 will be vindicated after the debacle last year that left Baylor and TCU—who both had impressive resumes with just one loss—on the outside looking in.

While the Buckeyes continue to be the consensus No. 1, the biggest storyline of the year is whether or not anyone can knock them off on the road to the national championship.