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2015 World Series Odds for MLB's 4 League Championship Series Contenders

Karl BuscheckOct 15, 2015

In the process of setting the 2015 World Series odds for MLB's four league championship contenders, there is one observation that is inescapable: Everyone left standing has an excellent chance of winning a ring.

The Kansas City Royals have the October experience, and the Toronto Blue Jays have the collection of unreal bats. But the New York Mets and the Chicago Cubs have the rising stars who are poised to take over the postseason.

In determining what kind of odds the four World Series hopefuls should have, the most important factor taken into consideration was the play of each club during the division series round. Recent postseason experience also factored into the equation, and that ended up giving a slight edge to the Royals.

Chicago Cubs

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Why the Cubs Will Win It All

The Chicago Cubs smashed their way past the St. Louis Cardinals to land in the National League Championship Series.

In the four games against the Cards, Chicago tallied 10 home runs. Kyle Schwarber led the way for the Cubs, as the rookie connected on three yard shots.

But what makes the Cubs such a scary opponent as the NLCS begins is that the team has such an array of dangerous young hitters. From Anthony Rizzo to Jorge Soler to Kris Bryant and Starlin Castro, just about anyone in the lineup could be the hero on a given night.

When it comes to the pitching staff, Jake Arrieta has been the definition of scary. The starter allowed four runs in his lone start in the National League Division Series, but as Jayson Stark of ESPN pointed out, that was the same number of runs that he allowed from Aug. 1 through the Wild Card Game.

Why the Cubs Won't Win It All

Aside from Arrieta and Jon Lester, the Cubs' group of starters is looking highly suspect.

During the set with the Cards, Kyle Hendricks couldn't make it out of the fifth inning, and Jason Hammel didn't make it out of the fourth. If Hendricks and Hammel don't start turning in more lengthy outings, Chicago's pen is going to find itself under all sorts of pressure.

The club's defense has also taken a hit. According to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune, a hamstring injury has knocked Addison Russell out of the NLCS.

Javier Baez, who replaced Russell in Game 5 of the NLDS, connected on a three-run homer in his first postseason start. Still, it won't be easy to replace Russell's glove. Per ESPN Stats & Info, the 21-year-old saved the Cubs 25 runs in the field during the regular season while splitting time between shortstop and second base.

Odds: 4-1

Toronto Blue Jays

2 of 4

Why the Blue Jays Will Win It All

By digging out of a 2-0 hole against the Texas Rangers in the American League Division Series, the Toronto Blue Jays joined an exclusive club.

As ESPN Stats & Info noted, the Blue Jays became just the third team ever to win a five-game series after dropping the first two games at home. The 2001 New York Yankees and the 2012 San Francisco Giants were the other teams to accomplish that feat. The Yankees ended up losing in Game 7 of the World Series, while the Giants went on to win it all.

It's the club's quartet of sluggers who continue to give the Jays the best chance of following in the footsteps of that 2012 Giants team. During the ALDS, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Troy Tulowitzki combined to clock six home runs.

And while those four have been busy giving nightmares to opposing starters, the Jays staff has quietly become sneaky good. Marcus Stroman delivered for Toronto in the club's win-or-go-home clash with the Rangers in Game 5 of the first round. As Stroman explained, per MLB.com, "I enjoy the pressure. I enjoy the spotlight. This is a big stage."

During the division series, it was actually staff ace David Price (7.20 ERA) who was the least reliable member of the starting rotation.

Why the Blue Jays Won't Win It All

The late innings look like they could pose a potential problem for the Jays.

Right now, manager John Gibbons' most trustworthy options out of the pen are closer Roberto Osuna and setup man Aaron Sanchez. The right-handers haven't allowed a single earned run in 11 innings of postseason work, but they're awfully short on experience at 20 and 23 years old, respectively.

Toronto is especially vulnerable against left-handed hitters after Brett Cecil tore his calf in Game 2 against the Rangers. According to John Lott of the National Post, there's still an outside chance that Cecil, who ripped off a 2.48 ERA during the regular season, could return to action if the Jays advance to the World Series.

Odds: 4-1

New York Mets

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Why the Mets Will Win It All

Make no mistake about it—the New York Mets have the most formidable rotation of the final four clubs.

It starts with Jacob deGrom, who just became the fourth pitcher to beat a pair of Cy Young Award winners in a single playoff series, per ESPN Stats & Info.

But for the Chicago Cubs and whoever the Mets potentially end up facing in the World Series, there's no easy matchup to be had with Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey and Steven Matz rounding out the rotation.

While those four rising aces will keep the Mets in the game on any given night, the ninth inning also appears to be in excellent hands. During the opening round of the postseason, closer Jeurys Familia retired all 16 batters he faced, as Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal noted.

Why the Mets Won't Win It All

The Mets are going to have to get past the Cubs to advance to the Fall Classic, and based on the regular-season results, that's not a terribly favorable matchup for the NL East champions. In 2015, Chicago swept the season series 7-0. Despite that ominous record, Michael Cuddyer remains optimistic heading into the clash.

“We’re a different team than we were,” Cuddyer said, per Mike Puma of the New York Post. “Obviously our offense is a little different, our confidence is a lot different than when we faced them.”

The confidence might be there, but the offensive numbers are not. Against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Mets hit .208, which was the worst mark of the eight teams that played in the division series.

Aside from the quiet offense, the bullpen also looks like a problem spot. With Tyler Clippard (5.40 ERA) and Addison Reed (6.75 ERA) both unreliable in the NLDS, manager Terry Collins could be forced to rely on an extra starter like Bartolo Colon in key late-inning situations.

Odds: 11-4

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Kansas City Royals

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Why the Royals Will Win It All

The Kansas City Royals are the kings of clutch.

The AL Central champs are the only team ever to overcome a deficit of four runs or more in the seventh inning or later of an elimination game, and the squad has done it twice, as Richard Justice of MLB.com noted.

Simply put, the Royals look like a team that's been there and done that. And that's because the club has.

Last year, the brilliance of Madison Bumgarner was all that stood between the Royals and a World Series title, and this year's roster has been bolstered by key reinforcements like Kendrys Morales and Ben Zobrist. Morales slugged three bombs in the ALDS, and Zobrist chipped in a .333 average.

Then there's Johnny Cueto, who appears to be locking in at just the right moment.

“That’s the guy we went out and got at the deadline,” Eric Hosmer told Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star after the right-hander stifled the Houston Astros for eight innings in the ALDS Game 5 clincher.

With Cueto once again looking like an ace, the always-composed Royals have a strong chance of getting back to the Fall Classic and taking care of some unfinished business.

Why the Royals Won't Win It All

There's no way around it: The Royals' pitching staff lacks depth.

With Greg Holland sidelined, the three-headed monster of Holland, Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera from last October is a thing of the past.

Davis has been lights-out in the ninth, and Herrera is still piling up punchouts, but Ryan Madson was a liability in the late innings in the ALDS. In three games, the vet, who suddenly has a far more prominent role, served up three jacks.

As for the rotation, the group's 4.34 ERA during the regular season was the worst of any team that made it to October. In the setting of a seven-game series, that lack of quality could easily get exposed—especially since the Royals will have to count on either Chris Young or Kris Medlen to slot into a rotation that is headlined by Cueto, Yordano Ventura and Edinson Volquez.

Odds: 2-1

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com.

If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.

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